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ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 53% (from 51% the prior week) for the week ending 11/23.
ENTA’s enterprise value at current share price ~$1.44B: #msg-145176914.
ENTA’s latest corporate slides:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/306858242/files/doc_presentations/2018/10/Corporate-Presentation-Oct.-24-2018.pdf
The FY4Q18 earnings release and CC are tomorrow (11/26/18) after the close.
ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 54% (from 53% the prior week) for the week ending 11/9
Mavyret data from AASLD:
#msg-144852424
#msg-144850948
#msg-144852305
ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 53% (flat to the prior week) for the week ending 11/2.
ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 53% (from 54% the prior week) for the week ending 10/26.
ABBV 3Q18 results—HCV sales=$862M (vs ABBV’s $850M guidance):
https://investors.abbvie.com/static-files/184e032f-41e4-4324-a0c9-6683bbef9781
ABBV’s 3Q18 HCV sales were $444M US (+5% QoQ) and $418M ex-US (-24% QoQ). (The $418 ex-US total includes $23M of Viekira sales.)
ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 54% (from 52% the prior week) for the week ending 10/19.
EDP-938 (RSV) update on phase-1/phase-2 trials:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/enanta-pharmaceuticals-announces-positive-phase-113000203.html
ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 52% (from 53% the prior week) for the week ending 10/12.
From the Japanese drug email list -
AbbVie’s hepatitis C drug Maviret (glecaprevir + pibrentasvir) was by far the best-selling medicine in Japan in April-September, but its sales appear to have already peaked out thanks to its own success. The shrinking market signals that the industry is on track to the elimination of the disease by 2030, as advocated by the WHO ...
Mavyret’s US new-patient share=53.4%—the highest-ever weekly figure—in the week ending 10/5/18, as reported by IMS. GILD’s US new-patient share was 45.6%, and MRK’s was 1.0%.
Mavyret’s US total-script share was 47.2% in the week ending 10/5/18, slightly below the highest-ever weekly figure, as reported by IMS. GILD’s US total-script share was 51.6%, and MRK’s was 1.1%.
https://abbvie.referrals.selectminds.com/landingpages/sales-opportunities-at-abbvie-108
scroll down. This is sales, but there could also be other non-sales type jobs. I noticed what seemed to be about 11 such jobs-what seemed to be upper level positions. There could be less, or more as time goes by.
Seeing the trial set up (and fairly early into 4th quarter) is reassuring. : )
I am still holding ENTA.
Maybe I'm trying to remind myself better times are ahead.
I also noticed that Abbvie is hiring people for the HCV China launch, so that could be another bright spot coming in 2019.
I'm still pouring thru AASLD entries, trying to sift through NASH/HBV/HCV/PSC etc
Luly said the phase-2a RSV trial will start (i.e. begin enrolling patients) in the current quarter.
A Phase 2a Study to Evaluate EDP-938 in the Virus Challenge Model
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03691623?term=enanta&rank=1
Recruitment Status : Not yet recruiting
First Posted : October 2, 2018
***********************
I will also note Enanta will release data (Clinical trials-phase 1) at an RSV conference November 1. This is the first day of the conference, possibly a poster event- doesn't appear to be a gran finale type oral presentation late breaker.
Still, it would appear that they are preparing to enter phase 2, which I *presume* means they were satisfied enough to post data at an RSV conference, and to continue setting up a Phase II trial. (as of less than a week ago)
Not a slam dunk, but generally positive indications.
The size of the trial may also be an indication; 114 participants demonstrates some degree of commitment.
Jay Luly-Enanta CEO- has mentioned RSV as a possible "go alone" possibility for ENTA- they could possibly do this without a partner.
Mavyret 9/28/18 script update: #msg-144060008.
The exercise price of a given option is whatever the market price was on the day the option grant was made.
Thanks Dew, so the exercise price of $34.70 is subject to change? How is that price derived?
Exercising options early, at a lower market price, has tax benefits compared to exercising later at a higher market price.
Mathematically, exercising options and paying the immediate portion of the tax bill in cash is tantamount to buying additional shares in the market price.
Dew, What is the advantage of exercising these shares now?
$120K* exercise-and-hold transaction by General Counsel:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1177648/000117764818000036/xslF345X03/edgar.xml
The exercised options did not expire until 2024.
*Market value of shares exercised and held.
GILD will launch Harvoni/Epclusa authorized generics for US market in Jan 2019; list price of these AGs will be $24K for 8 weeks—equivalent to the existing after-rebate net price of branded Harvoni/Epclusa, and close to the list prices of Mavyret and Zepatier:
http://investors.gilead.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=69964&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2368563
Any update today?
ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 52% (from 50% prior week) for the week ending 9/7.
ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 50% (from 52% the previous week) for the week ending 8/31.
New corporate slide set:
http://www.enanta.com/files/doc_presentations/2018/09/Corporate-Presentation-Sept-2018.pdf
ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 52% (from 49% the previous week) for the week ending 8/24.
ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 49% (from 52% the prior week) for the week ending 8/17.
The small amount of calendar-2Q18 Viekira royalty revenue ($1.2M or a little more, based on ~$41M of Viekira sales) is lost in the round-off error of the overall royalty calculation, where the inputs to the calculation have been rounded to the nearest million dollars.
Did anyone do the calculations? The 57.3 royalty comes close to what I calculated for Mav only (7.5 + 30 + 19.74 = 57.24 ). Should be another 1.4 to 1.8 million for the V Pak.
ENTA's EV is only $1.68B: #msg-142808471.
ENTA has disclosed the Mavyret/Glecaprevir royalty-rate tiers: #msg-142808661.
ENTA quarterly numbers ought to be viewed positively, IMO, given what we already knew about ABBV's Mavyret sales.
How is this viewed? I would think pretty positively...
ENTA FY3Q18 results—royalty revenue=$57.3M (+30% QoQ); GAAP EPS=$0.97:
https://www.enanta.com/investors/news-releases/press-release/2018/Enanta-Pharmaceuticals-Reports-Financial-Results-for-its-Fiscal-Third-Quarter-Ended-June-30-2018/default.aspx
Other PBMs haven't yet released their planned 2019 formularies, as far as I know.
ABBV has said all along that Mavyret's focus in the US market is on the government segment of the market, where PBMs play no role. So, even if CVS or another large PBM were to shun Mavyret in 2019, the damage wouldn't be that bad.
Good analysis. Have other PBMs released their 2019 formularies? I'm just wondering what are the chances that ESRX is not the only cockroach.
More on same subject:
Respectfully disagree. The ~15% (US) and <10% (WW) numbers I posted in this thread are pot'l %reductions in Mavyret's addressable mkt—not %reductions in ACTUAL SALES. If we presume that Mavyret wouldve gotten ~50% of ESRX biz, then %reduction in actual 2019 Mavyret sales is 3-4%.
— Roy Friedman (@DewDiligence) August 7, 2018
Well, OK,. that's not that big a difference. And gets to what I'm thinking about here, which is: are the PBMs lowering costs?
— Matthew Herper (@matthewherper) August 7, 2018
Musings on ENTA sell-off: #msg-142738244.
Bear in mind that the threshold for each Mavyret royalty tier is based on the 50% of Mavyret sales attributed to Glecaprevir. E.g., if we say, for the sake of discussion, that the threshold for the second royalty tier is $1B, then it would require $2B of cumulative Mavyret sales for the calendar year to get into that tier.
If the second tier is a billion in sales, we should have around 80% of Mav sales at a higher royalty. Any guess as to what the next level is?
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