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Jugs
Yep!!!!!
I have no wish to profit due to misery wrought by the devastation of Harvey. I understand we investors are supposed to search for profit opportunities but I can't bring myself to take advantage of the pain of others. There's plenty of opportunity to gain by being smarter or more daring.
I would say someone is doing heavy short term trading on the news of Hurricane Harvey knocking out some Houston refining capacity. This leaves OK refiners at an advantage. Still, this is trading on news and playing off of assumptions of the people that don't know really understand the downsides of owning this stock.
An easy way to milk a 4-5% short term gain out of an otherwise garbage price trend and company fundamentals breakdown.
Every jiadist out there is a believer, also.
We need to remain ever vigilant and astute lest we fall prey to those potentially indictable on grounds of painting the tape.
Of course, no day trader would ever stoop to such depths of deprivation.
Lol
My take is that those final trades came from CVRR holders hoping to shape market perspectives so as to broaden trading opportunity. There's pitifully little capable of holding CVRR aloft at this time.
Looking at the Trades tab on IHUB, I can see that 13,122 shrs were traded right at market close at $7.65/she. That's $100,000. Someone is a believer.
As explained on CNBC Friday, we likely can expect crack spreads to widen as feedstocks (crude) continues to be pumped, creating a surplus, and a shortage of refined products (chiefly gasoline and jet fuel) causes the selling price to increase. Thus, more margin for the refiners that are still on line.
I have no idea what the capacity of CVRR is at Coffeyville is. Hopefully they have not shut down anything for seasonal Maintanence or seasonal changeover. If so, I'm hopeful they are working hard to get 100% capacity back on line.
Watch CVRR carefully. It began to move Friday as news of Harvey became more certain and dire. If you have software that will show you volumes at the 5 or 15 min timeframes, note large volume surge near or at the close. I've been scaling in all day Friday. I see recent (August) resistance at about 9.65.
I am a long term loser in CVRR. BOT when MLP's were the thing to own. Stupidly, never sold my shares. Didn't really want to recoup my losses on other people's misery. God be with the good people around the Houston area.
Interesting development out of Washington regarding Icahn's decision to no longer remain as an advisor to the President. Carefully reading his public statement I am absolutely convinced he was told to pull away. Whether Icahn people or Trump people designed the action is not clear and I don't see it becoming clear any time soon.
What is very clear is that either the advisor, the President, or both recognized the futility of it all. There's little point in kicking the tires on a car after it's been crushed at the auto graveyard. Ditto here as our earlier lofty hopes and expectations have not been realized nor has there been even a modicum of likelihood that there might be progress.
It's sad to see things disintegrating as they are but this is as simple gets.
Holding out hope that CVRR will again stand tall and resume paying distributions this year is nothing short of insanity.
ALDW is the smart place of refuge. CVRR is no longer an investible option. It may hold appeal for those who know little about the stock market but enjoy games of chance.
Another extremely promising opportunity is NGL.
CVRR used to be worthy of investment. It was done in by greed and indifference.
My opinions are within this comment.
Much as I'd expected, CVRR will not be paying any distribution for the second quarter. This makes seven consecutive non-paying quarters for MR. Icahn's cash cow. I'm sure glad I'm not sucking on his lollipop!
I have a feeling the company will not resume paying distributions until such time as the net impact of RINs is dramatically reduced if not done away with altogether. That would bean example of beautifully managed leverage as it sends the message to President Trump:
Get rid of RINs or your/our smaller refiners will either remain impoverished or go down altogether.
Ridiculous! Icahn is hardly starving.
Over at Yahoo! there's an analysis comparing CVRR and two others in a related sector focus. Because I don't personally track the third stock, I'll mention only CVRR and ALDW, both of which I carefully follow. For the sake of visibility, let me mention that I hold no position in CVRR at present. However, I have participated numerous times as a unit holder.
"Market Realist" is the analytics company responsible for the analytical item. They often put forth some interesting pieces but much of my personal sentiment comes as a result of my being an investor, understandably.
The main drift appears to be that one should not be expecting CVRR to change its style any time soon if we're addressing an likelihood of their resuming distributions. Pointed out is the fact that CVRR has not seen fit to distribute any of their precious cash flow for six quarters running! While it is a variable yielding MLP, it is difficult to believe the company couldn't have loosened the bootstraps however minimally and paid out a nickel or at least something.
I don't mean that to sound disparaging as it is entirely possible that Carl Icahn has understood the market very well and refused to risk the company by over-extending. The article doesn't say one way or another that the gods of Hydrocarbia have lined up in a manner suggestive of a forthcoming distribution to be---or not to be. At the same tie, however, there's not a modicum of a hint suggesting the opposite, either. RINs are an important bit of the focus and if we are to believe that CVRR has not demonstrated progress in taming the effects of RINs on the bottom line, then I have to think there's no payout to be.
Now, then---ALDW appears to be a different story. I'm going over there now to post a thought or two.
Happy hunting!
CVRR got slammed today while ALDW had a great time of it. Methinks we're seeing a realignment in the making.
ALDW appears poised to show good Q2 earnings while nobody seems to be expecting much from Icahn's pet stock.
With RINs on the rise once again, CVRR will likely hold back on yet another distribution opportuniyy, while ALDW remaibs a question mark.
I'll be very happy with anything above 25¢.
Just read this article and thought it may interest others in the merchant refiner sector to know that RIN costs are increasing.
Though I still have no position in CVRR I am sharing this here.
This board has gone dark as the wings of a bat gone batty. Does anybody know of something that might be of interest to CVRR unitholders here?
My ears are always ready to perk up when something comes across my computer "desk" as it were. Nothing has come into view for a long time now.
There's a disparity between the valuation ascribed to CVRR and ALDW. It's amounting to about a dollar which is around 10% more for the richer of the two.
I'm not seeing reason to launch a new position in CVRR at this time. I hope this will change, given time. For now, though, things are looking a bit bleak. ALDW, on the other hand, appears to being the focus of some serious machine-based trading. This is apparent in that a bit more than half of this Friday trading day has seen ALDW swing between $13.90 or so and about forty cents higher. That's a wide spread.
For interests here on this CVRR board, I expect there has been a steady flow of investments out of CVRR and into ALDW. I continue to believe there's not much on which to base optimism when it comes to committing cash to CVRR. I hope this changes but I've not yet seen evidence of it.
Stay tuned and, please!---if you know something not previously posted, I surely hope you'll see fit to share it with us.
Thank you!
When I posted that May 22 is the date ALDW goes ex-Distribution, I was in error. That is the date of record of ownership. It's a bookkeeping issue for the company's backroom also referred to as the transfer agent. The date of ex-D will be several days earlier to allow for the usual three day settlement period.
I can't find a published date of ex-D for some reason but a call to your broker should take care of that matter.
Let's be perfectly frank, or imperfectly, should that be thought to be preferable by some:
I have enjoyed some extremely profitable trades, dabbling in CVRR. It's been more than a year, now, but there have been times when I found the stock to be a proper vehicle for profiting.
So, in the end---I have liked CVRR.
However---and it's not like you didn't know it was coming (lol)---
I DO NOT LIKE CARL ICAHN!!!
A very close friend remarked this past Sunday evening that I am not a selfish person. We then discussed my difficulty when up against truly selfish individuals.
I deem Mr. Icahn as such an individual. Oh, there's a place for what I usually refer to as "pig people." Perhaps we even need them much as machines require oil to keep things moving smoothly.
But, really, now!---A full year without distributions coming to unit holders? And here this guy has the ear of our President while refiners complain about the Big Bad RINs crippling the bottom line?
And the crack spread was (earlier on) viewed as insufficient to support profitability yet now is far friendlier?
It is beyond me that anybody would even bother to glance at CVRR let alone actually consider sinking money into what might be a worthy investment, were it not for the likes of Icahn and his inner circle of vultures who obviously are not going without the means to support themselves in every way but inelegantly?
This stock is a pig-dog! That is the lowest of the lows when it comes to descriptions. But the problem is not the stock......it is the company!
Mr. Icahn is milking the country, not the company---for all it's worth. He uses opportunity to shift responsibility to others, to rules and regulations, when, in fact, HE IS THE PROBLEM!
Just take a look at a sister refining component.....ALON Energy Partners ---ALDW. Here we have a smaller refiner that has paid unit holders a distribution each of the last three consecutive quarters while Icahn's CVRR has paid nothing? What's wrong here? How is it that littler ALDW manages to share with us?
I'll leave this diatribe right where it is as it's pretty easy to read the SEC filings and figure things out sufficiently to make abundantly clear to an investor that CVRR is to be shunned whereas ALDW is an incredible profit-making opportunity RIGHT NOW! TODAY!
ALDW just announced a 38 cent distribution coming to unit holders for the first quarter of this year. This works out to an annual yield of better than 15.5%---something nearly unheard of, ordinarily. On the news of the hefty distribution, formerly shy investors suddenly woke up to the new reality:
"Hey, there's opportunity here!"
And they're right. The market is going to shift gears rapidamente and we're going to see yesterday's ALDW close of $9.90 climb above $10 to stay and climb much further. I make it a practice to never tell people what to do and I won't violate my personal code now, either. But I will say that if doubters are within viewing distance, then read this:
Times change and we must change with them.
The flip side of this:
Why wait?
Waiting for a dip? From $11? $13.50? We're going to hit those numbers soon enough because you just don't find low-hanging fruit so readily accessible. Close to 16%? No way. The unit price will climb higher until that distribution percentage drops back to something in the 7.5-8% range. That means units will have to be pricing at something in the $20 range.
I hold 24,500 units of ALDW and no CVRR. Yesterday handed me a gain in ALDW of almost $25,000. This is not more than the tip of an iceberg flying in the face of Icahn-Warming. And that probably stemmed from his embarrassment. I predict that ALDW will fetch more than $20/unit long before the year is done. That's a quarter of a million bucks to me.
Some will continue to live in the glue-patch of unrealistic expectations that Icahn promotes but there's no fire, no spark, and definitely no smoke. Just a lot of mirrors that Icahn couldn't possibly like.
These are my opinions only. I've presented a few things here, hoping to reduce exposure to painful stock ownership via CVRR.
As for ALDW offering time to switch from one stock pick to another? ALDW doesn't go ex-distribution until May 22 of the year. That means you can start positions and/or continue adding to them for thirteen days. However, be advised that waiting will be costly as not everyone will elect to wait. Superior decisiveness will force the unit price higher.
This it the time to launch, so get your tickets now while they remain affordable. The distribution news added 10% to ALDW's price yesterday on a day that had the S&P 500, NASD and the DOW ALL in downward mode!
So I ask you now: WHY WAIT?
Interesting to note that CVRR is currently higher by 60 cents or about 6.5%. However---and it's strange-----the quarterly report has come out indicating that once again CVRR will not be paying any distribution for the quarter most recently concluded.
I have to wonder what people are thinking in bidding this thing higher on the heels of investor-related failure?
I'm sure I'm not alone in having expected this shabby result. Icahn is forever maintaining that RINs are responsible for the company's lack of traction. I don't buy into it as we know the RINs situation has abated VERY considerably. There's a time when somebody has to be accountable.
Mr. Icahn--- we get it---you are perfect! Wonderful!! Flawless!!!
But in this writer's opinion your ego is damaging investor confidence majorly.
I continue to dance around and most definitely not with CVRR.
Quick article from seeking alpha relating to CVRR's RIN positioning.
Read it here
Jugs, I'm doing fine...Sold the last of my CVRR yesterday, took a small loss...Keeping it on my radar...Still holding 8000 ALDW and waiting patiently...Have added MEP and EEP to the portfolio...Watching the boards for your comments as well as Catdaddy and Pete!!! GLTA!!!
CVRR has been coming back to earth for a few weeks now. While I'm not elated seeing it being valued on a par with ALDW, it's long been regarded as not deserving of a higher valuation by this observer.
At this time the two appear to be sister components in the oil biz although they are fundamentally quite different.
I could easily justify holding a position in CVRR but I lack the funds to make it possible right now. I'd consider letting go of 1,000 units of ALDW to facilitate the swap but CVRR is is a downside whereas the reverse is true for ALDW.
So I wait for now.
Thanks for your sympathy to Jugs...GLTA!!!
Whom are you thanking and for what? It would be helpful to address a specific post.
I am so sorry. Two weeks is such a long time, you must be going nuts. I really feel for you.
You're an active guy accustomed to calling the shots defining your life and lifestyle.
I'm pretty much that way as well.so it's pretty easy for me to envision being out of control of just about everything that represents my joy of living.
I wish you a robust return to good health!
As King of my financial empire I have been forced to stay pretty much on my THRONE!!! In other words I haven't worked in close to 2 weeks due to having the flu!!!! This is miserable!!!So I've had plenty of time to check the boards!!! GLTA!!!
I think you're going to come out smelling like a rose. Or like something. lol Or even something we DON'T like.
Just remember this:
It's the important thing that counts the most.
Remember that and you won't forget it.
Well no dividend as expected...But the appreciation in the stock price is nice...So I take what I get and hope for better performance in the future..Remember I sold 1,000 off for a nice profit...Still holding 2000...GLTA!!!
It flashed across my monitor---declaration of a 50 cent distribution. And now it's gone.
I'm sorry for those I may have inadvertently hurt due to reporting conflicting info.
This time I went into the SEC filing which I assume to be the real scoop.
It just occurred to me---why, on Earth, is CVRR higher by about a half dollar?
C'mon, folks, get real---ALDW is the place to be!!!
Two refiners---one pays for the groceries while the other eats them---YOUR groceries, no less!
Did I just see that CVRR is paying 50 cents/unit for Q4 of 2016?
Something's not adding up here, I'll check further.
Damn!
I've been going bonkers with NGL this morning but CVRR grabbed my attention and I had to jump to find out why it's up 47 cents.
Did I miss a brilliant opportunity in this one because I've been so wrapped (warped?!?!?) up in ALDW and NGL?
Has CVRR just announced a massive 4th Q distribution putting my ALDW into a corner of shame for a piddling eleven cents? Mind you, Wall Street Rocker is the sweetest guy around and I really hoped he'd come out smelling like the rose he is.
Unfortunately, and I really do mean this in all sincerity---
CVR Refining will not pay a cash distribution for the 2016 fourth quarter. CVR Refining is a variable distribution master limited partnership. As a result, its quarterly distributions, if any, will vary from quarter to quarter due to several factors, including, but not limited to, its operating performance, fluctuations in the prices paid for crude oil and other feedstocks, as well as the prices received for finished products, RINs' expense and cash reserves deemed necessary or appropriate by the board of directors of its general partner.
In a nutshell, once again CVRR will not disappoint by deviating from its chosen path of now more than a year---no payouts. No distribution. No nothing other than for complaints and defenses and whatever else Carl can muster up as he grabs the meat and potatoes for himself. I don't envision him sucking his gut in as he stands impatiently at the door of President Trump with hat in hand.
I was ready to pounce on this yesterday in advance of any announcement. Today I'm pleased to note that I got lucky in a way. I just wish things hadn't gone this way so that my friends could celebrate something more positive.
My take-away is this:
HOW COME ALDW MANAGED TO COME UP WITH ELEVEN CENTS?
Given that CVRR is more exposed to the forces of evil known as RINs than is ALDW, and the bottom line effect is that RINs have fallen by more than half over a year ago--- something stinks here in ICAHN-Land.
I know crude is higher. Is it not higher for all the refiners?
Your thoughts?
And again, WSR, I was really hoping you'd come out good on this play. Not to be, at least not for the foreseeable future. But, there's other fishies to be fried, right?
Garsh! Another middler-of-the-country!
Welcome. great to have your spirit with us.
I appreciate your company.
Capital city of your neighbor state of Arkansas!!!
Just got the news on ALDW's pending distribution---11 cents to be paid on Feb. 28th.
I hope this sets well with others here.
Fantastic! Thank you so much for your guidance.
While I currently hold no units of CVRR, I do have a sizable position in ALDW. For this reason I'm trying to get a better fix on the crack spread covering a meaningful portion of Q4 (calendar year). While my goal is primarily that of finding strong gains between now and the end of the year in capital appreciation, goodies along the way are more than welcome.
Don't feel bad, I've only just been initiated.
PFL is the research group, Progressive fuels limited.
RVOs are the targets for each refiner or importer of petroleum-based gasoline or diesel fuel, while RINs allow for flexibility in how each of them may choose to comply. That's from the EIA website.
The D classes are the different types of blended fuels. D6 is the renewable credit that CVRR is using.
This is a bit frightening to the uninitiated!
Where can I obtain explanations of some of the acronyms used in the charts? PFL, RVO, D3, D4, etc.---am not familiar with these items.
Much appreciate your assistance with this as it helps us develop meaningful perspectives with greater understanding from within.
Jugs
You're on for that cup of coffee. Extreme south Texas is my little ranch location.
Are you in California?
Have to be home brewed coffee that I make when girlfriend is in town...I don't drink coffee and Starbucks is definitely out...Too expensive for the penny pincher that I am!!! However if I'm ever in your neck of the woods I will buy you that cup!! GLTA!!!
Bullshit, WSR! I haven't seen a single penny of it.
Now, be a good boy and buy me a cup of coffee.
I'm in a wait and see mode...Still holding 2000 units @8.0213...Sold 1000 for a nice profit to keep Jugs happy!!! LOL..GLTA!!!
RIN prices are already cut in half and could be completely eliminated. CVRR spent close to $250 million last year. Crack spreads should be decent, Pruitt should be confirmed and the Divi should come back soon. The Divi is the real value, it could be worth multiple dollars per year. I have a hard time believing shares will be cheaper after that announcement. Add it all up and you could have a nice rush this year and the next.
What has you convinced CVRR will rise to such great heights?
This stock will become a goldmine. A cash register. Hope you got your shares at $6. Once the divi comes back those shares will be worth big money. $25 share price by next year if everything goes to plan, easily.
CVRR is now in a holding pattern for the most part. Up a bit now, down a bunch twenty minutes ago, probably heading higher in the moments ahead. But there's nothing to pin our hopes on , at least not until there's substantive news promising to gild the path ahead.
A couple of items to consider:
I think folks are lining up now, if only to secure solid footing position-wise for later when things show signs of beginning to gel as expected---later. This is what I did with ALDW, myself, back in the day when units were far cheaper than today. But I can't bring myself to tie up money in CVRR until there's substance and I'm not seeing it yet. In effect, while I support taking a position in CVRR, I don't believe it's a smart move until such time as there's some solid evidence in support of there being underlying value---not as an Icahn pawn, mind you, but as a corporate performer promising us good things.
As we speak, CVRR and ALDW are but twenty or so cents apart. This is noteworthy inasmuch as they were considerably further apart prior to this week. Perhaps ten minutes ago (9amC), CVRR dropped to negative 40 cents. That surprised me as it seemed a bit overdone. But today may be a flexion point for this stock, meaning market manipulators are finally preparing to give up the ghost and admit the hoopla has been phony from the start. When that happens, you can usually expect to see the stock drop with dramatic rapidity.
The big question for me?---When will Trump declare such-and-such changes in RINs such that we can look forward toward more robust distributions?
I think we're all waiting to see how quickly and deftly our incoming President will move. It will create a can-do atmosphere we sorely want to see and enjoy, present company included.
I submit that much of this stock's support has been coming from perceived support owing to Icahn's presence in the company. At the same time, I also believe it's really far more about market manipulation than anything else. This is rigged, I'm certain. Some well funded entities are managing larger trades, I'm certain, leading the retail side to assume there's gold in them thar fields.
There ain't, at least not if we're to base our optimism on corporate management and effectiveness, to say nothing of the dismal no-distribution year 2016 handed unit holders.
Don't be suckers, folks---wait for substantive cause to celebrate potentials.
My opinions herein, nothing more. But they're enough to keep me at arm's length.
My understanding, of which there is pitifully little to none!---has it that ALDW does not sett into the retail market through their own gas dispensing stores. Rather, they supply on the wholesale level. It would appear, then, that ALDW should not be impaired since they are blenders and free to sell to venders with pumps who, in turn, will tack on the RINs to cover their butts.
Do I have this right?
More background on the tilted playing field... (as in corn field)
Actually the blender is between the E plant and refiner as a middleman...
This piece says CVRR stand to gain if Icahn and Trump get their way.
http://investorplace.com/2016/12/3-oil-stocks-win-big-icahn-trump-way/#.WGPxZneZPBI
Th refiner IS the blender.
Google the law and you will find tons of information pointing at the politics and even some science disputing the benefit. Engine design would need to dramatically change to use high amounts of the ethanol pollutant! The Blend wall is 9.7%. We are over that and the lobby wants to go higher.... corrupt lobbying!
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ethanol-fuels-ozone-pollution/
engines work best and run cleaner without ethanol.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/new-epa-ethanol-rule-would-harm-engines-refiners-warn/article/2569045
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Headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas, CVR Refining is an independent downstream energy limited partnership formed by CVR Energy, Inc., to own, operate and grow our refining business and related logistics assets.
Our petroleum business includes a complex full coking, medium-sour crude oil refinery with a rated capacity of 115,000 barrels per calendar day operated by Coffeyville Resources Refining & Marketing in Coffeyville, Kansas and a complex crude oil refinery with a rated capacity of 70,000 barrels per calendar day operated by Wynnewood Refining Company in Wynnewood, Oklahoma, approximately 336 miles of active owned and leased pipelines, approximately 150 crude oil transports, a network of strategically located crude oil gathering tank farms, and approximately 6.4 million barrels of owned and leased crude oil storage capacity.
Distribution InformationCash Distributions
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=CVRR&a=00&b=17&c=2013&d=07&e=18&f=2014&g=v
It is currently the policy of the Board of Directors of the general partner of CVR Refining to pay quarterly cash distributions of all the Partnership's available cash, as determined by the Board of Directors, to its unitholders.
We intend to pay our distributions within 60 days after the end of each quarter beginning with the quarter ending March 31, 2013, to unitholders of record on the applicable record date. We expect our first distribution will consist of available cash for the period from the closing of CVR Refining's initial public offering through March 31, 2013. However, as described in our public filings, the Board of Directors of the general partner of CVR Refining reserve the right to change the distribution policy at any time, and the partnership agreement which governs CVR Refining does not require the partnership to declare any dividends at all.
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Event DetailsQ4 2012 CVR Refining LP Earnings Conference CallTuesday, March 12, 2013 11:00 a.m. ET Webcast PresentationAdd to Calendar HelpClick here to add this event to your calendarTitle Q4 2012 CVR Refining LP Earnings Conference Call Date / Time 03/12/13 11:00 a.m. ET Description Speaker: Jack Lipinski, Chief Executive Officer For investors or analysts who want to participate during the call, the dial-in number is (877) 407-8289. |
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