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Why is the refiner charged instead of the blender?
Oh yea, there is a tank for the finished octane products only. NO blending on site anywhere.
Ok, I'm not seeing the rins setup well enough.
I thought the blending occurs at the pump and not at the hands of the middleman supplier. I must be wrong. Right?
Where I live and I thought most everywhere the ethanol is NOT blended at the station. The issue is TRADING the RINS. RIN's are traded by retailers.
Go back and read Icahn's rant about the disadvantage he perceives his companies are handed by the EPA rules.
CVRR could, some Quarter, and has in the past pay more distribution than ALDW, but that does not mean we that follow them should prefer them over our ALDW positions! I won't be jumping on board again in the foreseeable future. That could change... GLTA!
Disagree, as you know. I don't believe ALDW's gas stations are equipped with the means t blend ethanol into their gasoline.
Topping it off---I noticed that Friday's closing numbers showed ALDW climb while CVRER was clearly in retreat.
With six minutes left in the session, ALDW is up 28 cents while CVRR is flatlining right to the opening penny.
I think it's a realignment as people realize that ALDW's got the advantage because of steadier distributions plus assuming that all refiners will fare better with the advance of new EPA relaxation of the rules.
The RINs issue resolution with Icahn's pressure on/in the new administration has the potential to greatly benefit CVRR due to its lack of retail outlets which by his own statements benefit refiners that have them. ALDW is small but does have the retail chain associated.
IMO that is why the market is seemingly favoring the two refinery volume of CVRR, over it's MLP competitor ALDW.
It certainly is not based on distribution performance this year.
It's going to be fascinating, watchiing folks retreat from CVRR simply because Carl icahn holds a commanding position. We have no assurance of favoritism due unit holders. I maintain a number of refiners stand to benefit from EPA rules relaxation.
Something occurred today that I've been expecting but in all honesty I had no way of knowing when it would happen. And, frankly, I was a little surprised that it reared its ugly head today.
What I'm talking about is this:
With Carl Icahn in the news all week and before, CVRR has been a direct beneficiary with a strong ascending line amply evident. In the background, Tessoro, Delek and ALDW have also garnered some attention although hardly to the same degree as CVRR.
Today, though, shows us something different and should not be ignored by traders or investors alike:
Momentum always speaks louder than words and today the first crack in the CVRR/Icahn wall showed us its ugly face. Today---surprise!!!--- CVRR showed a strong gain in morning hours only to lose all the steam packed within, coming out of the day flat---right to the penny flat, at that.
At the same time, ALDW was up strongly in the morning hours but things faded miserably by noon eastern time, only to rally in the closing moments of the session, winding up with a 19 cent gain.
Nineteen cents is outstanding for two reasons---
1. nineteen cents marks the strongest single day gain of the week.
2. It occurred on the very day that CVRR FAILED TO GAIN!
The big deal here is that we're witnessing a reversal. Given the strength of the gain, we now have a showing of a reversal backed up by conviction as is evident in the momentum strength.
A third analytical item to be noted:
CVRR is the one of the refiners touted as most likely to benefit by the Icahn news but CVRR came up dead flat today while ALDW showed great strength--- without any news to explain things.
In simple terms--- CVRR may have run its course to the upside and will now have to find support through performance or a political event linked directly to the company. Contrast this with ALDW which clearly has its own legs without dependence upon political goings-on. I much prefer ALDW's situation.
My take-aways:
This is why I advised yesterday that my board buddy take his profits BEFORE suffering a marketplace decay factor I think reasonable to expect. We may have seen the tip of the iceberg today. Not to say CVRR will drop next week but I'm more confident that ALDW will outperform CVRR. I can't see value in needless risk.
ALDW's showing this week was very strong. Some of the momentum probably could be attributed to the Icahn/Trump connection, sure! But ALDW's gain today took place without any political news accounting for it whereas CVRR lost its morning glow.
My voice is just one, there are many others to be heard and considered.
I'm holding no position in CVRR as I find no evidence whatsoever to offset risks associated with the company's very poor performance over the past year and a half... and likely to continue indefinitely.
That spells a gloomy picture for diehard believers. Fortunately, there are many better performing stock picks out there ripe for the plucking.
Good hunting, folks!
Yesterday there was a flurry of upgrades due CVRR from analysts projecting a price target of $9.
It's not much higher than the current valuation accorded but underlying is something else:
For a long time, now, CVRR has led the way with respect to ALDW. It has quite convincingly traded at points well higher than the other. This is not to say that one is worth more than the other, only to acknowledge that it's being suggested that the prevailing value associated with CVRR be $9.
The problem I'm having is that CVRR has been a miserable failure for all of this year! Grab that $9 valuation if you like but I hope people won't misinterpret the guidance from analysts as being meaningful organically.
Then we look at ALDW which sits a few cents above $9 but with recent guidance pointing to $11.50. I'm thinking that next week ALDW is going to fly well past today's price. But CVRR might just fall back when people realize that there's been absolutely nothing backing up any reasons to hold or buy the stock in many months. If anything, Icahn's unpleasant posturing may produce a negative effect.
Then again, if he truly does have Mr. Trump's ear, then the RINs debate and resolution would certainly mitigate much negativity in the area. But which of the two aforementioned picks do you figure to benefit more conspicuously?
I'll let you decide that one for yourselves.
Mean me! Mean---bad dog!
ARRFFFFF!
I think Icahn saw better opportunities elsewhere as did I. Otherwise both he and I would not be out or moving out of CVRR.
It's dead meat to me and I'm not biting. And when it's firmly out there in the press that he's whittled down on the pick, I think it's going to wreak havoc with investor confidence. And if it doesn't? then people might just be stupider than I'm thinking.
I didn't think to check the share count yesterday...If Ichan sold off part it should have been way above average....Jugs, what is your take on his selling...I know you say you don't trust him!!! And I remember you said you sold your position!!! Thanks for your take on this!!! GLTA!!!
This is really interesting.
Thank you!
Pete---I was answering a post of yours when something went nuts and instead of letters I was getting blue dots. And no, I'm not a drinker.
You had said you hadn't yet connected today's move higher with Icahn's pressuring Trump to bring about some relief in the RINS area.
I think it's the story today. It may go further tomorrow and Friday and I won't be lightening up on ALDW, NGL or any of our other energy plays.
Today was a hugely profitable day for me as I was able to profitably unwind my margin-denominated forays into larger positioning. Most of all, it was great fun. And very profitable.
Maybe---
Mr. Trump is pro-hydrocarbons. This includes not only gas and oil but also coal.
Miners of the three items above should expect to reclaim fresh opportunities to work in their earlier-held professions. And companies engaged in such activities will likely reap the harvest.
Personally, I'm not even thinking about touching CVRR. My bet is that people figure Trump will be sympathetic to the RINs dilemma that is ransacking profits refiners would otherwise stand to receive. I'm not into gambling and think it would be ludicrous of me to bank on actions yet to be addressed by the incoming president. And I have only contempt for Icahn, CVRR's big guy.
So I'm sticking to my guns in the MLPs in which I strongly believe will come through despite any perceived unfairness Mr. Icahn underlines in his plaintive cries to all who will listen.
The new president may well usher in better times for our oil and gas industry. Will these last long enough to alter our financial wellbeing?
Hard to say much to that as nobody could know at this stage. I do think, though, that if terrific gains are showing up in your account today, you might consider taking at least a small portion off the table and watch for continuing opportunities tomorrow and thereafter.
Hope this helps you!
jugs - why are refinery stocks doing so well today. did i miss something?
Finally looked up the day's results for CVRR.
Units dropped 20 cents to $6.80. And then in after hours, the other shoe dropped bringing units down another thirty cents.
Meanwhile, NGL ROSE 65 cents. CEQP rose 30 cents. KNOP climbed 75. ALDW added eight cents, AMZA tacked on ten cents, LADR added 23 cents, NEWM went for 65 cents higher and NRZ another 22 cents higher. Every single one of these moved higher today while CVRR sank during the session and died miserably in after hours trading.
If that doesn't spell things out, I think there's little point in trying to convince someone determined to stay the course, regardless of facts in evidence insisting this dog is lifeless.
My sense is that CVRR will either declare bankruptcy or put itself up for sale. Obviously the company has not shown itself capable of navigating through this difficult time.
CVRR is dead meat for this quarter just as it has been for the last two quarters. I find no positives in it.
You've married the stock, it's plain as day but you can't see it.
NGL began its correction back to higher ground today. What did CVRR do?
Still holding some CVRR....Would like to add 100 units back to my NGL...Sold that 100 to pay for adding to my ALDW holdings...But as always I'm short on cash and have to wait on this months divi's...being patient with CVRR and will add in the future...GLTA!!!
Well, here I am---talking to myself. lol
There's not a lot to talks about when it comes to CVRR. However, as some of us expected, units dropped down to $6.45---well beneath the sub-$7 mentioned earlier. Too, this was on average volume.
I'm thinking it's going to test the $6 threshold, possibly dropping all the way to $5.70. Frankly, if that should occur soon? I won't jump. It's going to be a long wait between now and three months from now. I find no reason at all to promote CVRR by my ownership of units.
On the other hand, I've gone big on ALDW and NGL. I follow the smoke and there's no smoke here. A thing or two must change, first.
Anybody still holding units of CVRR?
I doubt it as there's been no definitive contract drawn and signed establishing the need to introduce behavioral changes common to both entities.
However, I like that you're trying to think things through, something too often lacking on these boards. Good for you!
Could this be because TD just announced the buy out
of Scottrade? hummmm
That's really interesting.
FYI Scottrade is also posting the 5 cent increments.
Decided to change things up here a bit at the old ranch:
Held 2,000 units of CVRR and I've changed my stance. This stock is going lower. There's nothing at all to support it at $8. I can believe we'll see the $6's sooner than $9's.
I've now sold 500 units at $8.00. Then another that came through at $8.025---odd in that Ameritrade tells me the ask must be in increments of 5 cents. I've never seen that before.
When the above sale came through, I put out another 500 for grabs and it came through at $8.03.
A third 500 is out there at $8.05 and I'm waiting. If it goes I will probably liquidate the last 500 units.
My thinking is that this thing isn't going anywhere good. Certainly not in the near term. On the other hand, I'd had a $4,000 gain until the crap hit the fan and I don't like seeing half my gains go up in smoke. So this is about two things:
1. Preserve profits
2. Set it up for a position re-launch---but only when I see the price drop back to less than $7. My earlier cost basis had been $7.08. I'm of the belief we'll print well below that. If we know anything about CVRR, it's that it can't hold a candle to NGL or ALDW. Also, this is absolutely, totally, uglylyly dead money THAT MAY NOT RECOVER FOR A YEAR OR MORE!!!
Good luck, everybody---but if you hold on, be sure to ask yourselves why. If you can't point to distinct positives, then you're probably kidding yourself or just getting old and afraid to grab control of your steering wheel. That's a dangerous state.
PS. Just unloaded the last of my CVRR. Came away with a gain of about half of profits there yesterday. I made a mistake in not selling yesterday as I was certain there'd be no distribution forthcoming. I was foolish in not being more protective of my $4,000 gain. Fortunately I've preserved half of that. And I've regained my seed capital. It's a win-win although not great.
I hope others here will learn from my blunder.
Not brilliant...Just following my 3 wisemen to a small degree!!! GLTA!!!!
You were brilliant in letting go of some CVRR and moving the money into ALDW.
The geese are dropping eggs!!!! GOOSE egg!!!!....GLTA!!!
Just in:
Distributions
CVR Refining will not pay a cash distribution for the 2016 third quarter. CVR Refining is a variable distribution master limited partnership. As a result, its quarterly distributions, if any, will vary from quarter to quarter due to several factors, including, but not limited to, its operating performance, fluctuations in the prices paid for crude oil and other feedstocks, as well as the prices received for finished products, RINs' costs and cash reserves deemed necessary or appropriate by the board of directors of its general partner.
Now, then---this oughta light some fires under would-be ALDW investors, wouldn't you think? Damn, this thing had a fecal look about it going back several months. I am SO GLAD I hold just 2,000 units with a cost basis of $7.08.
I'm not planning on selling the position any time soon as I see a good possibility of the RINs program being modified. Should that occur, I'd expect to see units soar on the news---to $12/unit or even greater.
Interesting as several years back I held 83 picks. Most were in the money as I rarely hold picks beyond a few months if they don't prove to be profitable. But I look for the super-winners, those are the ones that excite me. And it's not about the money any more, it's about the hunt and the win.
Smart choices with stronger cash commitments tend to produce the greatest income for me. This translates into going for the jugular---much as my 14,000 unit position in ALDW means. And I'm watching NGL although it would have to drop below $18 for me to take the plunge anew.
Today I hold 17 picks of which 15 are solid winners. #16 is a penny stock that seems to have shot me in the foot but it's not meaningful money-wise.
Number 17 is my pick-of-the-year---ALDW. And I'm still in accumulation more, convinced it's going to blow higher.
I guess I'm in wait and see mode with ALDW and CVRR...I believe we are going to see large gains for both in the future with stock appreciation and disbursements...I have other income that I will use to add to some other positions I'm in like NGL,CEQP...I have pared my portfolio down from about 40 to 14...Sold some losers...Now I'm a leaner and meaner fighting machine...LOL!!! GLTA!!!!
You could lighten your CVRR position and reapply cash elsewhere. I never hold nicely profitable positions after they've matured...when I've got something else ripening daily.
Why settle for one win instead of building a second winner?
Reached my goal of 4000 units of CVRR...Ave 7.6037....Let the appreciation begin!!!LOL!!!...Would like to go back to ALDW and add some more but I'm tapped out for now!!! Holding 6000 ALDW and underwater @ 10.7273...GLTA!!!!
Yesterday, on the heels of the Citigroup revised rating on ALDW, I mentioned that I'd be expecting to see some upwards price movement here in CVRR-Land. Today we may be seeing just that. I hope so.
I've got just 2,000 units with a cost basis of $7.08 so there's a nice gain to be enjoyed. However, I'm not feeling the need to qualify my position via higher valuation nor would I be moved by news of a forthcoming distribution. I'm here for capital appreciation, mostly.
That said, I am looking forward to Summer of 2017 when I figure things will be more stable in the energy sector. Too, the new year's reevaluated driving habits will be fully established and I expect gasoline will be dearer to investors with profits on their minds.
It's good to see CVRR at above $9 despite the single penny showing.
Barclays (analytical group) came out with an update regarding their valuation on CVRR. Whereas their earlier held view was that a target valuation should be at $6, they now view a more likely target of $9 as reasonable.
Barclays is pretty good when it comes to their projections so I'm good with this.
If Icahn wields power as we know he can, I'm fearful that walking in his footsteps may just be a path-port (it's a pun and not a lisp. lol) to financial ruin. He may be orchestrating things in order to adversely affect the market perception and thus the price of CVRR units.
I don't know more than you do and maybe less. What I do recognize is that there are those with far greater puppeteering skills, long accustomed to pulling strings legally. I figure Mr. Icahn must be one of those ready to do so. And I'm sufficiently self aware to know better than to consult my crystal balls.
And so far as I know, they're not leaded. One bout with cancer is enough for me.
Breaking down each word was an exercise in trying to apply some of what I've been learning from my reading of the Bernstein book as well as other informational sources. Investing is often such a tough endeavor involving so very many possibilities. If I can back out some of the items we tend to take for granted, then I feel it a responsibility.
I'm watching ALDW right now, hoping to cash in on an unexpectedly lower price by adding; CVRR is still too high for me to pay. MDR is getting closer to my buy point and NGL is going in the wrong position---up. Each of these potential plays represents absolutely nothing concrete except for my probably misjudging something (s) and setting myself up for a loss or two or three. My hope yesterday was that of encouraging others to allow that to be truly effective, we investors might try to distinguish things that might be constants rooted in fact while there are many other possibilities based more on our personality differences.
I find it difficult to disengage from an MLP's forthcoming distribution yet I know I'll have to do it many times in the future or else stand to lose sweet gains in the appreciation area. So I'm constantly trying to reinvent a new "Jugs" without springing too many unacceptable leaks*.
*May my bladder rest in Heaven. lol
Also this makes mention of the "growing talk" of a CVRR & Delek merger but I wouldn't necessarily consider it a credible source. There was an email subscription requirement to view the full article so I've copied and pasted it here to save everyone the trouble.
Might have something to do with the run-up last Friday?
CVR Refining, Velocity Midstream to build Oklahoma oil pipeline
Do you think this is just useful for revenue generation and sourcing cheaper feedstock or would they be able to transport their blended fuel output to help reduce their RIN obligations as well?
I'd imagine that this JV project will require a significant capital investment and affect cashflow before it is up and running and therefore be another factor negatively affecting distributions in the ST but LT it is probably a good play.
No, I'm never bored although it's understandable you might think that. It's immense fun to peer beneath any levels of understanding I can unearth. Not only does it confirm that I'm crazy but it lures in other crazies willing to question just about everything. Welcome!
You're looking forward to a distribution. We might both wish for same but I'd have to believe such an event will actually happen in the relatively near term. I don't. Not to say I've arrived at my conclusion very recently for it's not the case. At the same time I've been doing well despite lackluster distributions. So I'm leaning more and more towards the capital appreciation side and viewing distributions as icing on the cake, but not much more than that.
Wow you must be really bored buddy, to break down each word rhetorically....
Simply put I expect a distribution, and while not here for it either, as we know appreciation is the carrot and timing is the key, I anticipate any distribution to be a catalyst for price appreciation, which would translate into selling at the point where unit demand beats supply. That said, the recent news involving improved margin on gasoline bodes well for our refiners, who have lost their advantage since the crude export ban removal.
The RINs topic is interesting as well as the other small MLP refiner, ALDW has a dedicated retail chain to help in the rigged RINs market which Icahn says is the reason the big oil companies have advantages that small independents don't .
Your comment, as always, strikes me as perfectly rational. Yet I'm troubled, too. One of several books I'm finally getting around to reading is "Against The Gods" written by Peter Bernstein. In it, the author goes to quite exhaustive lengths in an effort to explain the nature of risk. Underlying is the nature of probability and those scientists most necessarily included in any index of those most deserving of recognition for having contributed mightily.
There would be no stock market were we not to embrace aspects of risk and probability. There would be no actuarial tables and Las Vegas would cease to exist. lol This book is a fascinating read.
You point to your being in CVRR for
Early trading validates the "gaps get filled" generality. Both the remaining two refining MLP's reversed their big moves of late Friday.
I'm holding for the potential return of distribution here. GLTA!
More chatter on a seeking alpha news blurb.
After Hours Gainers Losers
Block of 4m CVRR shares sold near close, back down 10% after hours.
Monster move today right before close. Kicking myself in the rear for selling at 7.06 and then again at 8.52. The 8.52 was a big mistake as I meant to put a 7.99 stop loss order in but for some reason the order went through as a limit Thursday morning.
However, this morning I purchased 5- Oct 21- $10 calls for .30 a contract. Come Monday, these things will be in the money. My only concern is that we get buyout news and nobody buys these calls from me.
Very interesting, glad I've gotten to read the story. Many thanks to you!
Daily or very short term fluctuations in the crack spread probably account for very little movement when it comes to explaining changes in an MLP's valuation. Perhaps even more meaningful is that these little bumps in the road won't likely account for much when it comes to recognizing profits yet to be made by our refiners. Renewables and the general malaise affecting (perhaps I should say ('afflicting?') our energy sector continue to plague all things and companies energy-based, so I don't believe pipeline difficulties such as are represented in the article will have much effect on CVRR, if any at all. After all, what is the significance of a one week interruption in a year's quarter-long existence?
And I think today's crash in ALDW-land echoes the same sentiment.
These events and/or non-events make for fascinating reading and even daydreaming but in the end, only bottom line changes will usually account for meaningful concerns. This is what prompted me to load up on ALDW even more, today...pushing me to sell a few NGL and a bunch of MDR, each of which I believe will continue to prosper even in these down times.
Still, your input is much appreciated as it drives us to think and rethink all sorts of variables that might not loom large otherwise.
Thank you for saying such nice things. Much appreciated.
You may have hit on something regarding bailing on ALDW in lieu of greater opportunity in CVRR. No way to know, of course, but for every action, there's always a reaction, right? So I loaded up on ALDW today, adding 1,300 units at silly valuations, in my opinion.
I unloaded some MDR and even a few NGL units which are quite sacred in my heart. Today was an ideal moment to be picking up ALDW as we have every reason to expect things to begin to reset towards normal next week. And if Monday should prove otherwise, I've got room to add some more ALDW. And I won't hesitate to do so.
CVRR has been gradually building all week, tacking on gains daily, I believe. In my mind the gains were not always justified but strange things can inhabit levitating investors. lol Then again, lots of smart investors are probably thinking I'm quite the a-hole for building a 9,200 unit position in ALDW. If I weren't comfortable with my choice, I'd not have done it, obviously. I figure this pick is greatly undervalued and should be righting itself at some point in the next month or so. I can wait as I'm not carrying any margin...so there's not much pressure.
CVRR is becoming more and more interesting, of course. By the way, that $2 gain has been re-calibrated by Ameritrade with the "new" market closing price set at $10.10. This equates to a gain today of 99 cents. I'll take it!
Odd but I feel dirty. Some stocks we like, a few we love and then there are those we hang around for, smelling opportunity for unearned profits, whatever those might be. Every year I get involved with CVRR and invariably make some decent money yet I always feel like a pimp. It's foolish of me, certainly, for I'm using my own resources and experiences, too. Yet it's always easy money and I have never actually liked the company. NTI, ALDW, CEQP, LADR, and NGL most definitely---all have rewarded most amply and I've respected each. CVRR is another animal.
I'd appreciate comments on this from others as I see there's something quite illogical here. After all, what's to dislike when you profit from a pick? Where is it written that we have to respect the company? I see these things yet seem to be trapped.
"The gasoline crack spread, a measure of gasoline margins, jumped as much as 17.8 percent on Friday to its highest level since June 6."
Gasoline futures soar, retail prices up as Colonial woes persist
Might have had something to do with it along with the momentum this stock was already experiencing. Big pipeline feeding gas to the northeast down has futures spiking. How are your other refiner picks behaving?
I'd imagine a ST snapback to the downside come next week though after this crazy move today.
I think your right on target professor, I will call you professor because I like reading about your thoughts on these MLP's and other stocks, maybe insiders bailing on Aldw to get on-board?
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Ameritrade is showing $10.21 for the close. The streamer program shows the leap of about $2 so I don't know what that's all about.
Icahn's been in the news a lot lately over the RINs debacle. But there's a bigger story afoot involving Delek's mounting a buyout campaign targeting both CVRR as well as the General Partner.
We may just happen to be in a sweet spot! Wouldn't that be nice? Or should I say "sweet?"
any explanation for the last 5 minute explosion in price?
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Headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas, CVR Refining is an independent downstream energy limited partnership formed by CVR Energy, Inc., to own, operate and grow our refining business and related logistics assets.
Our petroleum business includes a complex full coking, medium-sour crude oil refinery with a rated capacity of 115,000 barrels per calendar day operated by Coffeyville Resources Refining & Marketing in Coffeyville, Kansas and a complex crude oil refinery with a rated capacity of 70,000 barrels per calendar day operated by Wynnewood Refining Company in Wynnewood, Oklahoma, approximately 336 miles of active owned and leased pipelines, approximately 150 crude oil transports, a network of strategically located crude oil gathering tank farms, and approximately 6.4 million barrels of owned and leased crude oil storage capacity.
Distribution InformationCash Distributions
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=CVRR&a=00&b=17&c=2013&d=07&e=18&f=2014&g=v
It is currently the policy of the Board of Directors of the general partner of CVR Refining to pay quarterly cash distributions of all the Partnership's available cash, as determined by the Board of Directors, to its unitholders.
We intend to pay our distributions within 60 days after the end of each quarter beginning with the quarter ending March 31, 2013, to unitholders of record on the applicable record date. We expect our first distribution will consist of available cash for the period from the closing of CVR Refining's initial public offering through March 31, 2013. However, as described in our public filings, the Board of Directors of the general partner of CVR Refining reserve the right to change the distribution policy at any time, and the partnership agreement which governs CVR Refining does not require the partnership to declare any dividends at all.
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Event DetailsQ4 2012 CVR Refining LP Earnings Conference CallTuesday, March 12, 2013 11:00 a.m. ET Webcast PresentationAdd to Calendar HelpClick here to add this event to your calendarTitle Q4 2012 CVR Refining LP Earnings Conference Call Date / Time 03/12/13 11:00 a.m. ET Description Speaker: Jack Lipinski, Chief Executive Officer For investors or analysts who want to participate during the call, the dial-in number is (877) 407-8289. |
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