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Sorry but we need the money now.
I do not see any development to move the stock price up for the remainder of 2019 except a data readout from the safety cohort of prexigebersen plus decitabine. This may happen in a few months based on PN's answer to Chen.
"Well, I think what we would normally do is we will give a readout from the safety in decitabine and prexigebersen that six evaluable patients, as I indicated in my comments, we have five now and three evaluable, two in process. So I’m pretty confident, we will have that sixth one. And when we do that, again we follow the template of what we did when we did our original safety combination with LDAC and prexigebersen. We gave up a readout on the safety, and of course if we had any indications of the efficacy, we also put that out. So if we follow that template, which I'm sure we will, I would expect we have some kind of readout information in the fourth quarter, earlier than later."
This will result only in a short term PPS rise IMO.
The pancreatic treatment BP1003 does even have an IND yet.
"So I'd like to have that IND filed by the end of the first half of 2020, maybe faster. I mean we have the template with BP1002. So we don't have to embed anything new. So it's typically with these things now that on some of these complicated indications, it's the protocol. And we have a lot of reviews as you know, we have a lot of KOLs and they bring new insights. We have one with our solid tumor that came with FDA meetings that gave us some additional direction that we felt we needed to take advantage of and could help speed up things. So that’s the thing. So we should be testing in the in humans in the second half of 2020."
The end of 2020 would be the start of the safety portion of the trial. We are at least 2 1/2 years from evaluable results for the 2nd cohort BPTH1003 .
The Prexigeberson triple drug safety study results (6 patients)will not happen until mid-year 2020 at the earliest and most likely the second half of the year. We will dose two cohorts of 19 patients each in phase II. One for AML and one for MDS. Even an application for FDA acceleration of FDA Status is 2 1/2 years out.
We need 3 1/2 years of cash at a minimum. I expect the PPS to continue the ongoing downward slide. I am only holding 20% of my prior position. I will not consider buying back in unless something big happens or we drop well below $10. That is why I suggest BPTH add 11 million in cash now. In the long run an additional 1 million shares to the float will be meaningless.
I agree that BPTH needs to raise more money but not at these prices. There will be much better opportunities at much higher prices sometime in the next 2 and a half years when the current money runs out. If a treatment for pancreatic cancer arises from this, $12.50 a share will be a distant memory before they need more funds.
Conference call update:
BPTH in first Q raised 21 million in cash of which only 17 million is left. The cash burn rate will increase to 2 million per quarter. Only 8 1/2 quarters of cash rremains.
The science continues to look good with only one more patient needed for Dasatinib/Prexigebersen safety trial to be completed. The results will be released probably in the 4th Q. The triple safety study adding Venetoclax will then begin for another 6 patients. 19 evaluable patients will again be needed for the triple study.
To me the real potential is BP-1003 which targets the stat 3 protein. Patient dosing will not begin for this drug until the second half of 2020.
PN needs to raise more cash. He should sell 1 million shares of stock now and raise 11 million This would give the company 3 1/2 years to bring a drug to market or sell the drug rights.
It is looking like the analyst bump is short lived.
I suspect we will not recreate a "short squeeze" until there is real news like FDA approval of a drug or a merger.
We should be raising funds now while the PPS is higher.
Simple, You are welcome.
Let us see if this BPTH runs tomorrow.
Wow ! I only understood part of the article ( hard to follow the bouncing ball ) but understood enough of it to get the main point. This stuff is scary how they can manipulate ( or think they can ) a stock. Thanks SJ !
As I suspected a short squeeze caused the March 2019 run up. It is nice to see a short market maker taken down!
https://otcmarketresearch.com/bpth-short-squeeze-kills-market-maker-mica/
GP, I hope Wainwright is finally accurate on one of their price targets.
Good News for BPTH: Stock is climbing in premarket thanks to HC Wainwright. They started coverage of BPTH with a price target of $28. I haven’t found the article yet but they see something good happening.
Thanks SJ ! That should be doable !
Simple, At least 13 million dollars to get us to phase 3 in the new combination study.
SJ, how much do you think they should raise ? Would they sell the shares on the open ? It’s been so long I am not even sure what we are waiting on anymore .
We should see a rise in institutional ownership thanks to the Russell rebalancing. I hope the company raises funds soon.
SJ, I’m just riding along waiting to see what happens. But it seems that short sellers look for a low float stock as it is easier to manipulate. And I agree that the higher price makes it an easier target. JMO
GP, The trading today seems to confirm the run-up related to BPTH being included in a Russell index is over. The last time BPTH was added to a Russell index you indicated a "Russell short" was to occur. You were absolutely correct. What are your thoughts going forward?
With a higher stock price is a new short more plausible? What is the impact of the lower float?
Your thoughts are always appreciated.
GP, Is this finally the Russell rebalancing?
Are we getting the run-up now? Is this a run-up to set the stage to short this company again? Or could we be on the brink of positive news?
Will the alleged Russell short 2.0 begin tomorrow?
I am disappointed there was no run-up prior to the Russell microcap index re-constitution with BPTH. Maybe we will see some PPS increase tomorrow.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russell-rebalancing-brings-frenzy-to-a-summer-friday-11561636806
Looking to to enter later this week. Lets go BPTH
Runnin, I expect the stock PPS will continue to decline once the Russell rebalance occurs. The time is now to raise funds.
The only catalyst for a sustained PPS move upwards is drug approval or a partnership. Neither of these will happen until the triple combination trial shows results. PN admitted it is tough for BPTH to recruit trial patients with the Venetoclax approval. We need enough for 3 to 5 years to complete trials. Selling 1 million shares to the Russell index funds secures the future. A million more shares in the float will have no effect on the company's value if one of their drugs works.
I could not disagree more. They have money for two plus years right now. More good news will come before then and the dilution will be much less with raising money after that news. We have had enough of selling stock at low prices for now. However, in your defense, I think PN sadly may do exactly what you suggest:(
BPTH should raise funds now. Perhaps an opportunity will happen with the Russell rebalance?
We will see if the same alleged "short occurs" as the last time they were added.
* * $BPTH Video Chart 06-11-2019 * *
Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video
Gee, a chance to duplicate my March profits.....
Why the big jump, up to @16+
What does it mean?
I don't see BPTH on the russell additions list
Just got added to the Russell. Let's hope that makes your prediction not come true:)
The countdown to breaking $10 begins.
Another RS is unlikely until the NASDAQ listing is in question. That would be less than a buck.
I suspect they may want to maintain at least 1 million share float.
Or they could just launch a pump and dump campaign at some point. Not to mention an RS in the single digits could also be a real possibility
If BPTH is smart they will raise at least another $10 million here before we reach the single digits.
Oger, BPTH Broke through $13 as you predicted. Where does this bottom? $10, $5 or $2?
Roger, doger, Oger,
A little early on the 13 dollar prediction but so far accurate.
I see sub $10 within 2 weeks.
When is the Real Blast-Off here? IM looking for an entry with all my Winnings !!
This goes to 13 on Tuesday.
Is there an average point in the progression of getting a drug through trials that big pharmaceutical companies get interested in buying a company like BPTH? With the assumption that the drug appears to be promising. Or, is there way too many variables to even answer that question? This stock feels like the conception of the Ground Hogs day movie.
It has been said that those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it, it is also a proverb the any fool can learn from their own mistakes, wise people learn from the mistakes of others.
I got sucked in to this years ago - silly expectation of profit. Like all long term followers of this company I recognize that it isn't going anywhere without solid results. PN uses smoke and mirrors to raise funds and we all have suffered huge losses 99.5% to 99.9% depending on when you jumped in; hopefully we all knew it was high risk and didn't put on more than we could afford to lose.
From time to time PN sucks in a new bunch of investors, we see a huge surge as they enthusiastically embrace the promise then a slow decline as reality sinks in. The cash position after the last episode is good enough that no new financial wizardry (duplicity) will be necessary for one or two years then it will repeat.
If ever there are results we wait (not with bated breath - we would die) to see if they have any of the requisite knowledge and skills to bring a product to market and actually make money.
Unfortunately there is almost nothing to "admire" in PN. He raised money by two drastic reverse stock splits killing the value of many faithful long time investors. It did not have to come to that if PN would have played his cards right several years ago. It is not rocket science to do reverse stock splits just like massive job cuts (in other circumstances) to raise the stock price that many CEOs do with a stroke of a pen and then get a pat on the back and a hefty bonus for it from their company boards.
Welcome to the harsh reality of corporate capitalism while more than half of this country's population does not even own a single share of anything because they can they hardly make enough to pay their bills.
Is there another Blast-Off Coming here or what ? BPTH-Whats the deal
Thanks for that STOCK.
Skimming through the transcript I didn't see anything new that was concrete, maybe I missed it but it looked like more rehash of old news. It will be interesting to see if PN bothers to do anything more for the next year or two to stave off the slow decline in pps and another RSS.
I have to say that I admire his resourcefulness in getting hard cash for old rope over the last few years, now if only he could find a way to push the science forward he would rate as a true genius.
Here is the key part of PN's answer to the analyst's question:
"We've had, in fact, quite a bit of activity on the front. It is a little bit slow as we've kind of indicated because we are in between refocusing of AML Phase II to get to the endpoints that we want, where eventually we will be 2 cohorts, 1 untreated, newly untreated and then the other relapsed/refractory, both with a triple combination. And so we've had to -- until wethe get to that point, enrollment has been slow because venetoclax has been tested against a lot of drugs and it takes up patients. So we have added things that will get our activity going, and we're halfway there, I think. And adding refractory/relapsed patients will, I think, give us access to patients sooner. And that protocols is in the process of heading out to a site for [IRV] reviews and whatnot. But a big part of the numbers change was -- is again just the accounting and the fact that these are batch spends. And those batch processes can take 6 to 9 months because remember, you're going through a queue and accumulating for the antisense drug substance and then that's a raw material input for the drug product, again, which has to go through its queue in testing. And testing is couple months at least for each step of the way."
Folks IMO we will not see triple combination trial results until next year at the earliest.
The edited transcript for the Conference call.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-bpth-earnings-conference-190725836.html
Raise the cash and let the dilution begin:
May 16 (Reuters) - Bio Path Holdings Inc(BPTH):
* BIO PATH HOLDINGS FILES FOR STOCK SHELF OF UP TO $125 MILLION - SEC FILING Source text: (https://bit.ly/2JLEJZE) Further company coverage:
This registration statement contains three prospectuses:
• a base prospectus covering the offering, issuance and sale of such indeterminate number of shares of common stock and preferred stock, such indeterminate number of warrants to purchase common stock and preferred stock and such indeterminate number of units as shall have an aggregate initial offering price not to exceed $125,000,000;
• a sales agreement prospectus covering the offering, issuance and sale of shares of our common stock with an aggregate offering price of up to $25,000,000 that may be issued and sold under the Controlled Equity OfferingSM Sales Agreement we entered into with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., dated June 24, 2015 (the “Sales Agreement”); and
• a warrant exercise prospectus covering the offering, issuance and sale of 5,149 shares of our common stock pursuant to the exercise of warrants to purchase shares of our common stock outstanding on May 16, 2019 (including shares that may be issued to the holder in lieu of fractional shares).
http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20190516/AIA2LG2CZM22EZZU222J2ZZDBQGM2B22Z2B2
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The Prexigebersen phase II trials for AML are located at MD Anderson, Weill Cornell Medical College Presbyterian Hospital, Baylor, New Jersey Hematology Oncology Associates, West Virginia University and University of Kansas.
Bio-Path Holdings is focused on antisense drugs which work at a cellular level to interrupt protein production by the diseased cell. The lead drug, Prexigebersen is targeting the Grb-2 protein. Bio Path Holdings' delivery system is a small molecule neutral liposome system. Through the phase 2 of the combination trial for Prexigebersen there has been absolutely no toxicity. The results of testing performed by Bio Path demonstrates an uptake of the drug at a cellular level. The pErk results demonstrate not only a 50+% knockdown of the target protein but shows the pathway was shut down validating the delivery system. The purpose of phase 2 will be to test the effectiveness of the drug. Interim results are positive.
A CML combination drug safety study with Sprycel (Dasatinib) for Prexigebersen has begun at MD Anderson.
Patent protection for manufacturing their neutral lipid delivery system has been granted.
http://www.biopathholdings.com
This link to the company website describes their delivery technology:
http://biopathholdings.com/technology/
The company was founded on the technology from M.D. Anderson Cancer Center at the University of Texas in Houston. M.D. Anderson is the largest insitutional shareholder. After raising additional funds the company has 2+ million in cash. BIO-PATH'S viability is in question due to a lack of funds.
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