Alternative Path

[gdl]

DATA comes rolling in and it is NOT pretty. Inflation and profits are going in the wrong direction. the most striking is that the street anticipated a 3% rise Quarter over Quarter. it came in NEGATIVE. How anyone thinks we are done with the bear and a new bull is already here simply must ignore reality. Not just todays reality but the obvious path we are heading into.

I sure hope this holiday keeps everyone drunk and not thinking straight. The year end rally depends on it.

[gdl]

Everything about the Nasdaq is pathetic and if it wasn't during holiday season I would be declaring defeat. As it is we are probably going to stay afloat till next year. DOW can stall here but also likely to see one more wave up. I suspect the data on economy will continue to show just why Inflation is here to stay longer than most anticipated.

I need to see a strong ending and markets ignoring glaring problems. that would indicate late stages of this bloated bull.

With OIL, Dollar, Yields trending in right direction the street should use that as a catalyst for an explosive year end rally. i hope so anyway.

[gdl]

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/27/23464741/supreme-court-ice-drew-tipton-texas-united-states-immigration

Supreme Court is more radical and far reaching than TRUMP ever was. Where TRUMP tried to overthrow the government the Supreme Court is the LAW and has already overthrown this government. Like making a coup attempt legal. There is no law that they can't wave aside. there is no Judge that can be held accountable for breaking the law. heck they are the law.

IMPLODING branches. i can hear theme breaking as we speak. Wait till the REPUKS in the house take their revenge. TIMING is impeccable. this economy will fall with the government.

A crash in December? unheard of but the way this nation has destroyed itself what better way to end it. China obsessed with Covid and the people are actually protesting. Their shut downs do not work. They are going right back into shut down mode.

[gdl]

WELL looks like a selloff right now. Not sure how strong but it would be unusual for this to be anything other than a normal retrace and continued rally higher. For December to start the BIG DROP it certainly will catch everyone off guard but highly unlikely.

[gdl]

So many calling for a drop at the 200 day moving average 4056 on SPX. The Bitcoin crash certainly insult finished but in both cases we can't hold out till January IF the 200 day is the ceiling.

Is the 200 day a ceiling? We should know this coming week! I find it hard to believe we drop hard between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Drum roll please! In fact lets see how the market responds to the better retail sales.

[gdl]

Thin Black Friday crowds mark U.S. holiday shopping kickoff - Reuters

Yet they show the last 10 years and ONLY last 2 were higher than 5% increase. They project over 6% this year. Bias and selective reporting.
We already know online purchases hit a new record! Bottom line: GREAT HOLIDAY reasons to cheer for a fabulous rah rah rally on Wall Street.

What can possibly go wrong? Spending, dollar dropping, yields dropping, OIL drooping. FED raising rates only 50 basis points and ONLY for 2 more times it seems.

The FED will not want to spook the investor this holiday. No need to reiterate that inflation might be a long term problem. Wait till next year.

I would NOT be surprised if the DOW hits new all time record in 2022. PUMP IT UP!

[gdl]

Mastercard projects that sales will grow 15% on Black Friday compared with last year. Spending will be driven by shopping in stores, which was more muted last year due to a winter Covid-19 surge. In-store sales will grow 18% this year, Mastercard estimates.

So much for a recession. Seems the good news is that the consumer is still spending. The bad news is INFLATION will be here for a while.
How the FED can slow down rate hikes and maintain a slowing inflation picture remains to be seen. This holiday will see rates and the dollar move back up but by how much and how long? The Q's stalling? It has 150 more points to clear the first major hurdle. DOW is destined for new highs.

What a market. What a bubble. If you thought 2022 was a bad year the first half of 2023 will feel like hell I guess we will get used to it as we had with the destruction of our republic. Not a whimper. Even with the small margin in the HOUSE they will go full force with as much destructive power as they can be allowed. No as they can get away with, The picture of our demise is complete. Economic doom. Political dismantling. World in turmoil. A perfect scenario for 2023.

The year most Americans wake up and wish they were still sleeping.

[gdl]

Continued drop in Dollar, Yields and OIL. What more can this market ask for? The Nasdaq is the only laggard once again. The market is already anticipating a recession but I think the consumer will have something to say about that. BUT as long as the NASDAQ does not fall apart here we have a rah rah rally on our hands. I mean NEW HIGHS for the DOW. It sets up for a feel good new year. But first we have to see the badly performing Nasdaq wake up.

[gdl]

The setup is interesting. Both the dollar and 10 year yields seem to be breaking down. That should sustain this rally. The DOW is already at a point where a strong reversal is possible and now more likely. The Q's are as weak as it always was this whole move down. ONLY the holiday season should hold this market up and even allow for a run-a-away spike. I do not see any major drop yet. it is the Q's that is always the most vulnerable and first to lead a drop. the NASDAQ needed just 100 points from yesterdays close to confirm that also has legs. Stalling today but on light volume and post holiday angst.

[gdl]

Q's has a clear breakout point or failure. If it manages to close just 100 points higher it should set off a rocket launch.
I suspect the FED meeting will do it! No amount of talking down the market will help this time. It's put up or shut up.
They keep the language the same and raise by 50 basis points it is a GREEN LIGHT! One of the best closes of the year in December.

[gdl]

*** My post on another site. it will likely be deleted. ***

The dilemma: All trajectories so far both up and down waves have a specific angle.
In order for the DOW to stay Bullish till new year the path would easily take it past the old highs. I have not (yet) seen a multi-week move that didn't maintain the channel before being reversed. Even if the angle of ascent does soften it will do so during the strongest period of the year. That seems UNLIKELY.

So we either have new all time highs BEFORE New Years declaring the Bear DEAD or we never reach new years before the next steep drop starts.

Obviously this is pure speculation and basing it on pattern recognition of the past which can change of course.

So Do You Feel Lucky? Look at the whole year for yourself and tell me the weekly moves isn't in a pretty defined channel both up and down the whole time, the whole year. trace out the pattern for the new year finish Line and tell me we don't get new highs if we are in a bullish trend.

the absurdity of the DOW is so outlandish it reminds me of the Bitcoin surge to 69K, an apropos number. Was this whole year already wiped out as just a normal NINE MONTH bear? Pretty darn short so perhaps it wasn't even a Bear market but jus a correction?

Both economic and political absurdities have already been absorbed as the new normal. This is how Bubbles develop and never get seen from the inside. if the political arena leads this parade the economic one will follow in the same fashion. From a GOP being absorbed whole by TRUMPISM to the methodical dismantling of the republic, the support by his cult followers and the ability of one man to corrupt all branches of government. Now the GOP is in forced slavery to the King even as the public tires of him. they have no choice but to stay all in and convince the public to come back into the fold. The coup attempt extortion, obstruction and stealing of top secret documents is met with a GOP once again forced to do trumps bidding against their own instinct for self preservation. This as we learned that Alito leaked his own drafts and Thomas is all in on a leader of fascism.

You can't make this stuff up. SO here we are today in a NORMAL environment met with normal challenges and normal outcomes. I find it peculiar how we can view what happened as normal but not accept the normal consequence of our actions. If you attack a Tiger and fail to control him why is everyone unprepared for the obvious result.

Have a great holiday you all.....

[gdl]

FTX. The man in charge of bankruptcy states this is worse than Enron. Billions stolen or missing. A playground for the rich to plunder. And yet crypto lives! Bitcoin should already have crashed by any and all measures. Yet like everything today abnormal is normal and the numbed response by investigators is indication that this generation only knows good times and quick fixes

Powerful holiday cheer. New highs for DOW perhaps?

[gdl]

STILL the Nasdaq is going nowhere fast. It has to LEAD the drive up here. I suspect it will but o far it is a big red flag. Consumer strength is still in good shape and in fact I suspect much stronger economic activity and with that fear of INFLATION. BUT that should be in the future. For this month and next we might see a surprise move declaring this bear market dead.

As long as the dollar and yields stay down this market should stay up.

The FED will wrap the Christmas present themselves with a 50 basis point move.
The HUGE Put/Call ratio of 1.46 (historic) has helped keep this market from falling. Lots of short covering and as time goes on the feel good mood with spike.

New Year is a setup for a dramatic drop first half of year

Tale of two indices. DOW on FIRE. there is no bear market this year. Nasdaq seems to be ready to fall off a cliff. Money is steady and consistent. Placed in stodgy 30 stocks. the (SAFE) play?

[gdl]

NASDAQ is the TELL! It is at a very precarious spot today. While this day seems normal it is NOT! It just telegraphed just how unstable or stable the market is.

ONLY a drop of 100 more points anytime tomorrow could easily set off a drama tic drop of a thousand points. It is the roadrunner going off the cliff. Beep beep.

Sanguine complacency holiday cheer. Take your pick. NO ONE will see this coming.

Now before you think i am totally crazy I am NOT SAYING we are about to have a dramatic drop. I am saying no one expects it, sees it or is remotely prepared for it.

While there is nothing on the radar for tomorrow I will be watching.

[gdl]

OIL prices collapse, Bitcoin collapsing, Dollar surged almost 1 percent today. 10 year yield once again rising. Rinse, repeat!

Same old. DOW leads as it has for months. Nasdaq still in the dog house as it has been for months. Rinse, repeat.

Sanguine stock market as it has been for months.

When will the market be recognized? After 6 years placing the leader of an insurrection, coup attempt, and fighting with his own secret service to allow him to kill his own VP with his bare hands hasn't deterred the richest man in the world to declare TRUMP KING!

if these INSANE developments isn't a prelude to total collapse i don't know how we can possible top it. Can anyone think of a more profound way to self destruct? The really funny part is that NO ONE SEES IT! It is so shocking, so inhumane, so immoral that we prefer to deny reality because it is too horrific to register.

the TWO scenarios, economic and political as intertwined and it only takes, for now, a slight adjustment of your thinking to accept it as normal. Like going from the JEW is our problem to treating them as subhuman and to be disposed off as such. See how easy that was.

I personally can't wait for the world economies to implode. With it we get the crazies taking control of governments. We are close, so so close.

Seems the US political structure is one where desperation takes over and the final assault on our republic will be complete. they know they have no second chance. All out WAR!

And MY words are as popular, as understood, as if this is a decade in the past with no reference to what i just said.

Have a great HOLIDAY!

[gdl]

OIL prices collapse, Bitcoin collapsing, Dollar surged almost 1 percent today. 10 year yield once again rising. Rinse, repeat!

Same old. DOW leads as it has for months. Nasdaq still in the dog house as it has been for months. Rinse, repeat.

Sanguine stock market as it has been for months.

When will the market be recognized? After 6 years placing the leader of an insurrection, coup attempt, and fighting with his own secret service to allow him to kill his own VP with his bare hands hasn't deterred the richest man in the world to declare TRUMP KING!

if these INSANE developments isn't a prelude to total collapse i don't know how we can possible top it. Can anyone think of a more profound way to self destruct? The really funny part is that NO ONE SEES IT! It is so shocking, so inhumane, so immoral that we prefer to deny reality because it is too horrific to register.

the TWO scenarios, economic and political as intertwined and it only takes, for now, a slight adjustment of your thinking to accept it as normal. Like going from the JEW is our problem to treating them as subhuman and to be disposed off as such. See how easy that was.

I personally can't wait for the world economies to implode. With it we get the crazies taking control of governments. We are close, so so close.

Seems the US political structure is one where desperation takes over and the final assault on our republic will be complete. they know they have no second chance. All out WAR!

And MY words are as popular, as understood, as if this is a decade in the past with no reference to what i just said.

Have a great HOLIDAY!

[gdl]

The weakness in transports and Nasdaq is stark compared to the DOW. The repetitive move of the dollar and the 10 year yields allows for extreme complacency and inability to ever see a problem. Rinse and repeat. Spike the dollar and yields, draw them down and do it again till it reaches the ultimate target.

The current move NOW suggests a possible nasty drop from 2nd week of December right after the FED announcement. While the pattern and duration of this move is in line with such a possibility the seasonality is not. I suspect the FED and the PPT can easily delay the drop till new year. We shall find out soon enough.

Even on a one percent drop in Nasdaq intra-day the DOW is flat. This market on autopilot.

[gdl]

Seems the lows will be seen Monday or sometime Tuesday. Nothing like I expected.
Bitcoin is the slow drop and very controlled at that. This doesn't portend weld for Bitcoin. The drop needed was a fast capitulation style. this suggests wherever it finds a bottom it would not be THE bottom.

This whole move from January on is just a continuation in a long drawn out drop. Nothing so far indicates we are near a bottom. I had hoped along the way we get some washout events to cause spike moves both ways. If it didn't happen already it isn't likely till next year.

[gdl]

Monday should determine if we breakdown or start another wave up. The Nasdaq is in weakest position and it MUST lead the next move up or we falter right here and slide to 3800 on SPX as a minimum target. I suspect we drive higher.

[gdl]

If we didn't have such a pathetic chart for the NASDAQ with such little rebound I would declare a crash is going to happen any moment. The DOW is completely opposite where it has gone to the stratosphere with no sign of a blow off.

The NASDAQ has got to lead this rally soon. Inconceivable we can last till January without them as leaders. The market is clearly calling for stagflation. I still can't see it yet. I think the surprise is that inflation will rise with wages a strong job market and spending. Not sure either scenario would make much of a difference for stocks since they have already anticipated bad earnings for 2023. No more surprises so I guess only rates spiking higher than another 100 basis points would trigger the next round of drops.

[gdl]

IF we close lower today it seems that we will get a slide but not much more than 3800 on SPX. Everyone, I mean everyone is calling for a top at start of new year and the first half of year to drop to 3200 on SPX. this consensus is unanimous.

First off they assume we already started the rebound till new year. Second all consider a recession and weak earning for first half of year. BULL and BEAR alike!

Never saw so much complacency and unanimous projections for the next 6 to 8 months. I find it peculiar how anyone can know the normal process of bear transition to bull as if it is written down. That's what a super cycle does, throw everyone off assuming a normal bear cycle.

[gdl]

IF we close lower today it seems that we will get a slide but not much more than 3800 on SPX. Everyone, I mean everyone is calling for a top at start of new year and the first half of year to drop to 3200 on SPX. this consensus is unanimous.

First off they assume we already started the rebound till new year. Second all consider a recession and weak earning for first half of year. BULL and BEAR alike!

Never saw so much complacency and unanimous projections for the next 6 to 8 months. I find it peculiar how anyone can know the normal process of bear transition to bull as if it is written down. That's what a super cycle does, throw everyone off assuming a normal bear cycle.

[gdl]

Late day SURGE! Don't even know if 3800 will be seen next week. Broke my pattern at the end of day. Now likely we push higher and higher till year end.

[gdl]

I still believe 3800 is the absolute minimum drop all within the Monday/Tuesday target. I actually expect it to hit much earlier and bounce but eventually break down from there. In that scenario we can drop a lot further down. But so far no matter how clear the FED is telegraphing their rate hikes the street only hears what they want.

The employment situation is still very tight and the quitting rate is historic. that means the younger generation is enjoying the luxury of waiting for better pay and perks. I wonder when the 10 year and dollar make that big jump back up. I do believe the drop was a mistake. Rare that they both break down and then come roaring back but these times have been irregular and peculiar so far. The market is on autopilot and salivating on every drop to step in and buy. the day we close hard down is the day the street changes their assumptions.

[gdl]

Not my call so far. I didn't think the 3910 area would be held up. Fighting for every support zone is not what i expected today. Thought the pressure to sell would finally break (easily) this current support.

Not sure how we end today but in order for me to see a deep drop by Monday we have to show pressure on the downside today. that means closing at or near the lows of the day.

===============================================================
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said rate increases "have had only limited effects on observed inflation," and the Fed needs to continue raising it by at least another full percentage point.

Every single day they have to repeat themselves and every single day the street ignores it. Labor market is very tight. you can't get relief from inflation with that scenario EVER! I mean that never happened before where a tight labor market allowed for softening inflation. It takes a good while to START to SEE the LABOR MARKET soften enough to allow for wage growth to cool and inflation to moderate. This is economics 101. Apparently the street skipped that class.

Will the street react BEFORE the holidays or after? if after it certainly can't drop hard before new years. the PPT would have a heck of a job holding the market together that long if the data supports higher inflation. AND we will get a slew of data before the new year. Seems the FED is trying to TALK down the market here. Not having much success so far.

[gdl]

GOP already IMPLODED! Will the market follow?

Imagine TRUMP as an albatross pulling the GOP down as the massive propaganda machine and politically united GOP front collapses. Total turmoil. Lets not get confused with any moral reversals or developing a conscience. they determined that his behavior and fascist policies were perfect for their dominance till it wasn't. They only abandon him when he is used up and useless to their cause. BUT they went too far too long. there is NO turning back. Their policies will emulate TRUMPS but in a more hidden less crass way. They are stuck with TRUMP like politicians and no amount of trump bashing will change that. Not even the wake up call of their slim wins. Watch them GO AFTER BIDEN with their Benghazi tactics.

If we fall into a deep recession or a depression in next 2 years the fascist GOP will win easily and the demise of the political system would come after the economic one.

The era of selfish power with no regard for anything other than their own insatiable need for more. Uncle Tom has been leafing the parade as his seditious wife sits at his side ruling for a GOP KING.

[gdl]

No ability YET, at 11 AM, to rally. Hovering at first target and support at 3910 area.
Once it breaks that there really is no support till just under 3800.

The FED on a daily basis keeps announcing their intention and perhaps after the 10th announcement they are getting the message? Who knows. Rate hikes have a longer while to go and the data is showing a resilient consumer. Big ticket items have slowed but once they realize rates will keep going up i believe they will flood the market to lock it in. Only a guess at this point.

[gdl]

RECORD BREAKING Equities Put/Call Ratio of 1.46

That usually implies massive bearish sentiment BUT we are dropping now? maybe "they" know something is up and to be announced soon?

Stay tuned.

[gdl]

Pre-market today. Decent assumed drop. Now we see if it can build momentum or not. I believe Next Monday or Tuesday a low will be seen. The range can be very wide from 3800 to 3100. Would need a 100 plus drop today followed by over 200 points tomorrow to set up for a crash. That seems far fetched right now.

[gdl]

Chart pattern SPX: double top here. there is a vacuum all the way down to 3800 - 3770 area. It can actually hit that by Friday and still be in a bullish uptrend. If by Friday we break below than a crash is possible next Monday or Tuesday.

I know this is wild talk and likely just another crazy notion but the chart pattern can fit very nicely with a low around the 21st. I keep listening to the FED as they explain why they will raise rates in December only 50 basis points but reiterated strongly inflation is going higher still and we are not even close to a peak. Every single announcement by a FED member states the same thing over and over.

I need for Thursday to start weak and continue down for whole day to set up for a deep drop Friday. Tall order. After hours are non-committal.

[restripe]

Short it at 410

[gdl]

Interesting how BITCOIN and SPX are trying to hold the upside trajectory. Bitcoin is in no mans land and any negative news should cause a cascade affect. SPX might just be in same boat. they BOTH have complacency built in as if the situation isn;t that bad. YET BOTH have had news that was not reinforcing a holding pattern or an upside move.

BUT the candlestick patterns are fairly bullish and seems to be holding them up for now. What will cause a mad rush to the exits? Not sure.

My obsession with a crash before Thanksgiving is causing me to lose a lot of money.
I keep seeing a deep 4 day drop and now that we are in the last 4 day window I had to bet it.

I need to see Thursday drop and by minimum of 100 SPX points. I need to see the Nasdaq drop even harder.

[restripe]

Well the doors open

[gdl]

Bought 20 SPX 3800 Puts expiring 22nd @ 3.3

Insurance against my long shot crash. The price is complacent. Lost so much already so what's one more bet on my closing window.

[gdl]

I told you the market at extremes is in sync with external environment.
Get this, the most despicable inhuman creature to take any high office let along the supreme office is NOW attacking his DISLOYAL GOP and even FOX propaganda machine. they decided a long time ago he can destroy the world as long as he helps them keep power. NOW the man that holds all GOP races in his hand will stop at nothing to destroy anyone that gest in his way.

A HITLER reborn! Both parties thought they could use him and control him for their own benefit. Both are going down in flames and taking no prisoners. I find this so amusing. They would welcome treason and total dismantling of our republic as long as he stays a winner. NOW all they can do is straddle the fence with suggestions that he step down. In the mean time the crazies in the party will take over the party and eventually side with TRUMP. they have no choice. The implosion of a party like never before. They still believe their cause is a winning ticket and as a result will be obliterated in the voting booth.

THAT IS TILL the country falls apart. THEN blame will be an easy play. Till then enjoy the show. Eventually HITLER politic will gain control as this nations plunges into the depths of despair. I do believe we don't have much more to go.

[gdl]

S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as Target stokes fears of gloomy holiday season headlines

In same report we got this. Target Corp (NYSE:TGT) tumbled as much as 16.9% as a pullback in consumer spending despite heavy discounting also hurt its third-quarter profit, which missed market expectations.

Its bleak forecast jolted the retail sector, with shares of Macy's Inc (NYSE:M), Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY) and Dollar Tree Inc (NASDAQ:DLTR) dropping between 1.4% and 6.0%.

Despite the sales warning from Target, latest data on U.S. retail sales suggested that consumer spending remained stable and could help to underpin the economy in the fourth quarter.

The data showed retail sales rose 1.3% last month led by motor vehicles after remaining flat in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales accelerating 1%.

"When you see a beat like this, it suggests that the Fed might interpret it as they need to do more as far as rate hikes, perhaps going a bit higher than what we had originally penciled in," said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments.

The data and earnings reports come on the heels of upbeat quarterly results from Walmart (NYSE:WMT) Inc on Tuesday that had added to market optimism driven by a softer-than-expected producer prices report.
===============================================================
SO which is it? Weaker sales or better sales? Slow down in inflation or a pickup in inflation going forward? I (KNOW) the answer and so does the FED. Too bad investors don't.

[gdl]

The ONLY last ditch period for a crash is NOW! Wednesday thru Monday the 21st.
After that and its a bullish bias till Year End. Any drop from the 22nd of November on should be used to add more upside bets. If the data coming out these next 3 trading days doesn't prove the consensus wrong I doubt December numbers will even be looked at due to the euphotic holiday cheer.

Lets see how well they shrug off todays reports. In fact the street is solely focusing on a slow down by consumers and a hard landing. This despite the HUGE jump in retail sales and bullish remark by a home improvement company. The Dollar and Rates are still veering down so the street is still fiocusing on a slow down with lower inflation. I see the EXACT opposite this holiday.

[gdl]

SLOW DOWN? Retail sales SURGED. If the market is heating up there is no way inflation stays down. From jobs to spending this market is seeing something completely different that what they WANT to see. but hey, this is feel good time.
Housing better not start rebounding or.......

What a crazy market. The assumptions over one monthly drop in inflation expectations is kind of nuts.

[restripe]

Great I will load up on my puts now you are my best indicator just do the opposite

[gdl]

With confirmed PPI and CPI slowdown it will be hard to see any slow down in November and December. A rip roaring rally seems to be upon us. The FED can't stop it. Only a shocking external event could derail this move it seems.

I wonder why the FED keeps harping on inflation and that they see no end in sight? I wonder? Do they know something we don't? The 80's had hyperinflation and yet there were months that had slow inflation. On aggregate it was a disaster.

PUMP THIS UP!

[gdl]

HOUR IN after FED cautioned market we are higher in DOW, SP500 flat and poor Nasdaq down. Bitcoin is slowly sinking as if there is no major break in support.
I suspect PPI and Retail Sales will be STRONG. Like jumping into an ice cold lake during the peak of summer.

I know my window for a dramatic drop is closing fast so this makes the timeline really easy.

Want to see the dollar reverse back up fast and rates jump back also. Seems pre-holiday drinking is a problem here. Will know which direction we are headed before the open tomorrow. if data comes out as expected, lower, we continue the holiday cheer.

[gdl]

Analysts are jumping over themselves giving their range for this rally. it is BIG. Why the Nasdaq is expected to reach 2500 before any drawback. Everyone is absolutely convinced the rest of year will be very good indeed. Even "I" see the possibility if we can get thru this week unscathed.

The FED for many months now is trying to TALK DOWN the enthusiasm. They haven't got a prayer. The drop in the dollar and longer term yields proved that point.
All are convinced the FED will stop soon and the market will have a soft landing and a new bull cycle will resume.

THE BIG DISCONNECT. Crypro in a slow spiraling death. Not typical of what this sector has produced. In fact it has no support here and should by all accounts drop like a stone. But like the current stock market rally defying expectations and prior patterns.

[gdl]

Every single day the FED is talking DOWN the market and they just do not listen!
Every day the FED is telling the market you are way ahead of real and proper valuations and every day the market tells them to mind their own business.

IF we cold out for only one more week we should see a trajectory for all of December at a significant higher angle and Year End should see new highs for the DOW and SPX at around 4400 plus. Q's are the one that will have the biggest explosives' move but i don't have a target.

IF we do hold to that scenario next year will be even more dramatic and much deeper lows all in first half of year!

Maybe we start a real BULL CYCLE? Heck I thought TRUMP and his hate would win the day on election. Boy was i wrong. it ONLY took sedition, treason, and self implosion. The abortion insanity, crazies in the GOP and combined all this managed to bring the Democrats back into the Senate and slim loss in House. IF I can be wrong on this perhaps we will NOT crash hard and long. An aything is possible.

[gdl]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Fed may consider slowing the pace of rate increases at its next meeting but that should not be seen as a "softening" of its battle against inflation, Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said on Sunday.

Waller said markets should now pay attention to the "endpoint" of rate increases, not the pace of each move, and the endpoint is likely "a ways off," Waller said in remarks to an economic conference organized by UBS in Australia. "It depends on inflation."
===============================================================

DUH! Lets recap: slowing pace of inflation BUT they see no endpoint yet? In other words they fear a dramatic slowdown, don't see it yet, but think inflation will be a problem regardless. I believe the term for that is Stagflation. Does anyone know the last time we had Stagflation? in the 70's.

[gdl]

THREE MONTH vs. 30 year yields. Well we just had the 3 month surpass the 30 year. Happened two other times and the future wasn't exactly bright for stocks.

Seems the street is shouting that the future will be stagnant as the FED pushes yields on short term higher. That must mean housing and retail sales will drop further? Can the street be wrong?

Earnings revisions just last week shows a graph that is simply amazing. the peaks over last 25 years kept getting higher and the troughs also keep getting lower. The last one was a doozy cause by the pandemic. IF we are to top that the next depression will be upon us.
===============================================================

So lets recap: The earning picture for all of 2023 is getting worse as we go along and at the same time stocks are rebounding in a big way. Crypto imploding of fundamental flaws in concept. Giddy euphoria that inflation data suggests the rise is not spiking anymore. Bonds confirming an expected slowdown. World economies are in trouble and yet our market, the best of them all, is actually sliding as well? Dollar breaking down as if the rest of the world is improving? The political front is as bizarre. the GOP got exactly what they wanted a man like TRUMP that can channel the voters fear and hate into a party platform. Can steal entry of radicals into th Supreme Court in the dead of night. Can change the economic landscape overnight with White Supremacy and mainly rich white men dominating. Getting everything they wanted and more. Shocked that after such display the voter finally saw the scam and revolted. I suspect the GOP will now be less open about their actions and plans in order to finish the job. The man leading the destruction of their own party, TRUMP, is the same man that lead his rioters to storm the Capital and hang his VP. He is so uncontrollable that he will try his hardest to take down the whole GOP with him.

And yet as we speak none of these FACTS matter. it is as if this is just normal. if anyone wants to know why it is inevitable we destroy ourselves completely it is because there is no other way. That how long term meg cycles occur. Human nature forces our hand. this time cycle we are in has a HAND that is about to slap the crap out of us.

[gdl]

My counter intuitive guy. He seems to make the most inaccurate comments at the exact time we reverse hard. His most famous line is usually Balanced and Bullish. Did this during pandemic, prior to crash and early January 2022. I must take heed.

His quote on November 11th.

"not a snowballs chance in hell of the market giving it all back this month
the last weekly rally was 9 weeks we are in week 5 this leg has bigger volume and price expansion"

Where does he get this stuff? Really? I was actually leaning towards a similar conclusion about December being BULLISH but NOW all I have to do is see the PPI for October and the market reaction to see if we do indeed hold this rally till January.
If not it will crash NEXT WEEK or on the outside chance Monday the 21st.

[gdl]

I will give you one scenario that will probably work depending on the outcome of ONE DATA POINT on Tuesday before the market opens.

1 - if the PPI for October is higher than expected the street will literally flip out and initially be in shock. Since the EXCUSE for this rally has been a tame CPI report for October it stands to reason a bad PPI for the same month will kill their reason for this rally. Initial shock and drawdown on Tuesday and any additional data point supporting momentum in inflation would cause a rush to the exit signs.
2 - if the PPI for October is in-line with expectations that also is a negative since they expect a much weaker number like the CPI ha shown. That too will cause some worry but the drawdown should not result in a rout. It does put in question the strength or length of this current trend.
3 - If the PPI for October is weak like the CPI any weakness in this current rally will be short lived and a zoom zoom affect till year end is assured.

This ONE DATA POINT is that important. made so by the reaction from the CPI data. Stands to reason, like the FED Meetings on rate hikes it will cause a long lasting reaction.

[gdl]

At this blow off rate can you imagine where the market would end up by year end!

Life is good! markets are just starting to recover and it needs no time doing so.
But where is the volume? Where is the bullish divergence? Where is the bullish candlestick patterns? Maybe like the dollar and rates it will catch up.

Going into the biggest holiday season of the year. Can't think of any bigger present. It only has to hold on till end of next week.

Last time the dollar plunged like this was march of 2020. What followed was a HUGE STOCK AMRKET RALLY!

I see new all time highs on January 1 2023 and double the current price in January 1 2024 In fact I see this just getting started. A new bull cycle to last another 50 years.

Only kidding BUT the market behavior is telling the number crunchers they are wrong. i mean very wrong. A new dawn. A new era where disinflation is back baby!
The housing market is saved! Can't even keep the absurdly high DOW down, not for one day, not for a minute!

[gdl]

https://www.investing.com/analysis/market-may-not-rise-much-more-as-earnings-estimates-fall-200632248

People keep questioning the rationale of a market that continues to defy logic. i say they are dead wrong. Inflation and earnings are great. just ask anyone. ONE DATA point proved that point. CPI report confirmed a major shift in inflation and rates plunged and the dollar followed. Presto, earnings are no longer a problem.

man that was easy.

With the big drop in dollar and rates I find it impossible we see any major damage till early next year at the earliest. Even if the PPI was showing inflation spike the street will stay the course and ignore it. Nothing it seems will stop this run-a-way rally. the Q's should spike much higher between now and then. it has a lot of catching up to do.

[gdl]

Fascinating how money is squeezed from one sector and pushed to the other. DOW is absurdly out of sync and now money flowing back into Q's away from the DOW. that tells me the money in this market is mostly static as funds get switched back and forth. Not sustainable. For now the Q's are the place to be.

the speed and decisive break in bonds, dollar and rates must have been in preparation for the CPI data. I wonder how quickly it would reverse back when they realize the anomaly was the one month data point on CPI. I suspect that will take days if not weeks to realize, assuming that situation arises.