*** My post on another site. it will likely be deleted. ***
The dilemma: All trajectories so far both up and down waves have a specific angle.
In order for the DOW to stay Bullish till new year the path would easily take it past the old highs. I have not (yet) seen a multi-week move that didn't maintain the channel before being reversed. Even if the angle of ascent does soften it will do so during the strongest period of the year. That seems UNLIKELY.
So we either have new all time highs BEFORE New Years declaring the Bear DEAD or we never reach new years before the next steep drop starts.
Obviously this is pure speculation and basing it on pattern recognition of the past which can change of course.
So Do You Feel Lucky? Look at the whole year for yourself and tell me the weekly moves isn't in a pretty defined channel both up and down the whole time, the whole year. trace out the pattern for the new year finish Line and tell me we don't get new highs if we are in a bullish trend.
the absurdity of the DOW is so outlandish it reminds me of the Bitcoin surge to 69K, an apropos number. Was this whole year already wiped out as just a normal NINE MONTH bear? Pretty darn short so perhaps it wasn't even a Bear market but jus a correction?
Both economic and political absurdities have already been absorbed as the new normal. This is how Bubbles develop and never get seen from the inside. if the political arena leads this parade the economic one will follow in the same fashion. From a GOP being absorbed whole by TRUMPISM to the methodical dismantling of the republic, the support by his cult followers and the ability of one man to corrupt all branches of government. Now the GOP is in forced slavery to the King even as the public tires of him. they have no choice but to stay all in and convince the public to come back into the fold. The coup attempt extortion, obstruction and stealing of top secret documents is met with a GOP once again forced to do trumps bidding against their own instinct for self preservation. This as we learned that Alito leaked his own drafts and Thomas is all in on a leader of fascism.
You can't make this stuff up. SO here we are today in a NORMAL environment met with normal challenges and normal outcomes. I find it peculiar how we can view what happened as normal but not accept the normal consequence of our actions. If you attack a Tiger and fail to control him why is everyone unprepared for the obvious result.
Have a great holiday you all.....
AI
