Alternative Path

[gdl]

IF we close lower today it seems that we will get a slide but not much more than 3800 on SPX. Everyone, I mean everyone is calling for a top at start of new year and the first half of year to drop to 3200 on SPX. this consensus is unanimous.

First off they assume we already started the rebound till new year. Second all consider a recession and weak earning for first half of year. BULL and BEAR alike!

Never saw so much complacency and unanimous projections for the next 6 to 8 months. I find it peculiar how anyone can know the normal process of bear transition to bull as if it is written down. That's what a super cycle does, throw everyone off assuming a normal bear cycle.