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Posted by bmcd on Trading your system-
this is kind of a random post, but it's been on my mind this week, just thought i'd share this....
the reason for me posting this is that in the past 3 weeks, I have missed out on what would have been huge plays. I'm talking a few hundred bucks into $10k or $15k.
okay, since i finally developed my "system" for trading options, I have to say it has just been awesome. now, i have to say also that my system wasn't completely figured out until the end of may probably. up until that point, i randomly picked options to trade, and I randomly picked when I would enter. when i started trading options at the beginning of february, I have to say it was blind luck that caused me to pick and trade options that made me just over $10k in 5 weeks. I don't know how that happened, but it did. my random choices for options plays made me a lot of money, and I was over-confident with how "easy" options trading is. after that, I quickly gave back most of those profits because of my lack of knowledge and lack of having a system to follow before entering a trade.
I knew I needed to make a change, and develop a trading system with checks and balances before entering a trade. so I literally spent probably WEEKS worth of time studying charts and finding what works and what doesn't. this month, while following my system, there have been ZERO trades where I couldn't have taken at least SOME profit. that tells me my system works.
however, sometimes it's hard to follow your system completely. this is mostly due to letting too much emotion into my trading. when I cover all the checks and balances within my system, it's very hard to lose money. but there are always those times when we let our emotions lead us into trades.
when I follow my trading system (that I've used and I know it works) I can make money. but those times when I skip a step or two and enter a trade, I end up looking at what I did and question why I even put myself in that position in the first place. those are almost always losing trades. "if i had only looked at it this way..." or "why didn't I notice this on the charts...". those have been my bad trades.
the main point is this: once you've discovered your system, and you find that it works, you need to trust it. when I get into a trade before making sure it is the correct setup, it has resulted in plays that either make very little profit, or it gets me into trades where I have to go back and forth, "do i sell?" "well, i'm not up very much profit-wise, maybe I should hold" or "wow, I was wrong on the direction on that trade....". but when I trust my trading system, so far there has always been an opportunity for profit.
the issue i've had the past couple weeks is that I've seen trades that cover all of my criteria for a "good trade", but it's the bad decisions I've made through emotion that get in my way. the bottom line is this: you have a system that you know works, and as long as you go through every piece of criteria within that system and everything checks out, just trust it. not doing so over the past couple of weeks has caused me to miss several absolutely huge trades; all because I was hesitant because of trades I've done where i didn't completely follow what I know works.
find a system, make sure it works, follow that system completely (dot every i and cross every t), and trust that it will work.
that's about it.....
#msg-77084412
[Posted] by jetpilot1101
#msg-66025526
An Open Letter to Jerry “Monk” Williams
Mr. Williams,
I am writing you this letter as a follow up to the email I sent you which consisted of the following post on the iHub message board HOPE STOCKS.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=64943293
Initially, you reached out to me and asked for my opinion on what you were about to publicly post. I did exactly what you asked me to do; I responded to what you posted on your private website and gave you my unedited opinion of what you wrote. In the email I sent back to you, I asked you to respond to what I wrote. I informed you that since you had already received my email, I would be posting the message on the HOPE STOCKS board. To date, I have yet to hear from you even though from our correspondence, it seemed likely that you would reply. I promised you that I would not post any of your personal messages to me on the public message board without your express written permission. The purpose of this letter is to follow up and give you an opportunity to respond if you so desire.
Below are some links to what you used to jokingly refer to as your “sucky picks”. Please pay close attention to the “1 Yr % Change (TTM):
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/CDIV
-95.17%
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/EIGH
-72.00%
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/PNTV
-54.44%
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/GRNO
-90.83%
Can we both agree that these were in fact “sucky picks” and that anyone who invested in these stocks according to your “FLD” method of “buy, hold, add and never sell until told to do so”, is more than likely down an awful lot of money with less than a snowballs chance in hell of ever recouping that money?
Can we further agree that while you did not hit the buy button for anyone and you are not responsible for their purchase of these stocks, you are certainly responsible for encouraging people to buy and hold in order to force a short squeeze?
Finally, can we agree that you admitted to selling shares of these so called “Float Lock Down” stocks on the way up while continuing to beat the “buy and hold” drum?
So here we are many months after the FLD’s have imploded and lost the vast majority of their value. CDIV and EIGH have been suspended by the SEC for various reasons (see links below).
http://sec.gov/litigation/suspensions/2011/34-64612-o.pdf
http://www.sec.gov/litigation/suspensions/2010/34-63242-o.pdf
You had quite a loyal following. At the height of “Monk’s Den”, more than 1,800 people had boardmarked the forum and there were countless posts each day extolling your virtues; how you had helped them out and how you were one of the best traders out there. There was a family atmosphere. Many great friendships were made there and a lot of folks genuinely felt that they were being taken care of and listened to. Many of the people there simply wanted to have a place to turn to away from the cutthroat world of Wall Street and trade in a friendly environment. Your “Monkinars” were doing quite well. You were teaching more than 10 classes per year with some of the classes exceeding 80 participants. Again, friendships were made and people were able to put faces to names from the Den.
So I ask you these simple questions: Was it worth it? Was throwing away “the family” worth it for a couple new houses, an aircraft and an expensive car? Do you enjoy living in your new homes while members of “the Den” have lost theirs? Do you enjoy the financial security you have while countless members lost their retirement accounts?
This is the part I don’t get, sir. I don’t get why you needed to promote and pump four worthless companies. I don’t understand why you needed to even be in penny stocks. You had a pretty good gig going teaching folks how to trade. I don’t understand why you didn’t just teach folks how to trade and then post what plays you were making based on your rules. There are countless folks on iHub and throughout the internet that make calls every day on listed stocks. They make excellent money as well. You had a good thing going and you threw it away for what?
Now you have previously written how you are down a tremendous amount on the FLD’s and that you feel bad that folks lost a lot of money. That may be true and since I haven’t seen your trading accounts, I’m going to assume it is. But that is not really the point. See losses are relative and they are in this case as well. I’m sure that losing a couple hundred thousand dollars is a blow to your wallet and ego. The problem is that that is not the same as someone who trusted you and lost their entire retirement savings account. You don’t have to go out and look for a job or continue to work to pay the bills after being promised that buying and holding the FLD’s would make them financially independent. You told me this on many occasions and I’m sure you told others. You have the luxury of hiding behind a team of lawyers, your own private website, and the SEC investigation. The people who trusted you are left to pick up the pieces of their financial lives and try and make sense of it all.
To date, I have yet to hear any sort of apology from you. I have not heard you utter one word taking responsibility for what happened. However, I have heard stories from countless people who have taken responsibility for their actions and accepted their responsibility for hitting the buy button. Do you intend to let them shoulder this burden by themselves or will you take responsibility for your part in ruining the financial dreams of so many?
I think a lot of people are still trying to understand how they were sucked into these scams. I don’t have all the answers but I will give you my perspective. You used people, plain and simple. You found out what was near and dear to people and you played on that. It didn’t matter if it was the religious or the military angle; you found what made a person tick and exploited it. People trusted you, people believed in you and you took advantage of them. I’m sure you believe you didn’t use people but you did and there is no way to deny this. When things started to unravel, you essentially cut off communications. The only way to reach you was via a paid website. How many emails did you return to those who were looking for answers? I can tell you I sent you more than a few and I have NEVER received a reply to any of them. Is it safe to assume that if you cut off communications with me, then you did to so many others?
I am not trying to drag you through the mud, nor am I trying to exact some sort of revenge on you. I simply think that people need to know what you did and how you did it. The reason is simple: no one should have to suffer the same emotional anguish that I know many people have suffered. No one should have to be scammed out of their hard earned money because someone promises them riches. People should know that if it is too good to be true, it most likely is. I do not hate you personally but I do hate what you did to so many. Agree or disagree but you cannot deny the facts of what happened. One need only look at the 4 links I have provided to your “sucky picks” to realize that people are down significantly.
I would like to hear what you have to say. I would like to hear your response to the questions I have raised. Are you man enough to accept responsibility for what you have orchestrated? Are you man enough to admit that you made mistakes and people suffered because of it.
I look forward to your response,
JP1101
This relates to all investors who just cannot LET GO of a poor performing stock....
Posted by REELTIMER
You ask "To what end?" He feels he has no choice. It is the "Monkey Nuts" story. If you don't know it, allow me to tell it. It is a story about why people hang on when there is no hope.
In WWII, there was an atrocity called the Bataan Death March. GIs were marched through the jungle, provided with almost no food. Soldiers were starving and dying. Then, one plucky corporal discovered that he could take a couple of nuts and put them in a milk bottle with a string around the neck. He threw the bottle into the jungle, and a monkey would put his hand in the bottle, to get those nuts. But once he had his hand around the nuts, he found that he couldn't get his hand out without dropping those nuts, and he couldn't find the will within himself to let go of his meal. Then the corporal would pull in the string, and eat the monkey.
IMO Jim Green is in that situation. He borrowed a couple hundred thousand dollars and put it into the Reeltime bottle. Now he wants them back. But deadlines loom. More money must be spent before the string is pulled in on him, but he can't let those nuts go.
Sometimes I have thought that I was the monkey, who would be devoured because I would not let go of my RLTR nuts. But I have not done that, at least not yet, since I still see light at the end of the tunnel. But Jimmie must let go of those nuts now, before we all get devoured by those ravenous GIs, and that light at the end of the tunnel gets extinguished.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=46516837
Posted by Smoke20
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=30351609
Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each.
The villagers seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest, and started catching them. The man bought thousands at $10 and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their efforts.
The merchant further announced that he would now buy at $20. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.
Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer increased to $25 each and the supply of monkeys became so little, that it was a rare event to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!
The businessman now announced he would buy monkeys at $50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on his behalf.
In the absence of the monkey dealer , the assistant told the villagers. “Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that my boss has collected. I will sell them to you at $35 and when he returns from the city, you can sell them back to him for $50 each. That’s a 44.1 percent markup!”
The greedy villagers instantly agreed. They rounded up all of their savings and bought every single monkey inside the big cage.
Then they never saw the monkey dealer nor his assistant again, only monkeys jumping everywhere!
Now you have a better understanding of how the stock market works.
Posted by ONEBGG
#msg-43958438
My Thanks For My Friends:
Happy Thanksgiving
This Thanksgiving holiday with its blessings so grand
Should serve to remind us of the joys at hand
The friendships we treasure, our families dear
The love we've been given and shared, year to year
The food at our tables, where many have none
The dawn of each morning beneath the bright sun
The dreams that we carry; the warmth in our hearts
That bring us together when we are apart.
The walks by the lakeshore as stars light the sky
The joys in the children who quickly pass by
The stillness of nature, the comforts of home
Each blessing the greatest that could ever be known
The warm, pleasured scents from the kitchen, delight
Arousing the senses near the firelight
The wondrous decor of the season to come
Good tidings, best wishes for everyone.
The freedom we hold, so to live peacefully
The soldiers who serve us, so diligently
The air that we breathe, the flowers we grow
The brightness of spring, the coldness of snow
Our sons and daughters, our husbands and wives
And the furry creatures who capture our lives –
All are blessings we’re given to cherish, always
Yet, especially so on Thanksgiving Day.
Celebrate this time for the beauty abound
Be thankful for all of the blessings you've found
For in the end, blessed you will truly be –
A soul filled with love, peace and harmony
Happy Thanksgiving, my friends; I am blessed, indeed
I am thankful for the love you have shared, selflessly
May each road that you travel be paved with a smile
Have a wonderful holiday....enjoyed in style!
Jill Eisnaugle’s Poetry Collection
Posted by: glassy
pick for what? a waiter? ha ha... at first blush not know ing more @ either, its easy. I always go for quality not outward appearances.(chances are REAL GOOD that they can be shallow and self absorbed if they ,too, think they are "really really good looking").
over the long run- and I am talking about 6 months and on, the thing that will matter is not what he looks like but how he looks at you and how he treats you. Day in and day out, THAT'S what will go the distance. Love is a commitment not a feeling or a feeling of infatuation. peeps who think its a feeling of being "head over heels" are going for that initial infatuation stage and consequently go from person to person to repeating that stage in order to have "that feeling" again and again. it is just one of the many stages and it is not supposed to last- it will morph into another stage and then another as you and your relationship mature.
Age does not matter as much as maturity, caring, campassion etc...
" Love is patient,love is kind. It does not envy, it does not boast it is not proud. It is not rude, it is not self seeking, it is not easily angered, it keeps no record of wrongs. Love does not delight in evil but rejoices with the truth. Love always protects, always trusts, always hopes, always perserveres. Love never fails. " 1 Corinthians 13
Remember what you want at 18 may not b what you want at 24, 28, 35.... I know you are older than that but the concept is a good one.
hmmmmm, also he needs to be able to cook! ha ha!!!
This was TMI for simple question- and I know good and well it was NOT hypothetical- but there it is!
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40953973
Posted by: IH Geek [Dave]
Lions, crocs, and wildebeasts? How about just the fishes?
A wide, fast-flowing river is at our feet. There are many fish in the river. Millions have passed by our particular spot, and millions more are yet to come. Blink and hundreds have passed into oblivion without our notice.
All of the fish feast upon other fish or other life forms. Some fish are bigger, some smarter, most are predators to one degree or another, all are potential prey. The schools of small fish don't generally care about the predators because quantity has a quality all its own. Most of the fish just "go with the flow" and don't spend their time worrying about the agendas of other fish. Some fish that distinguish themselves get caught by hooks or nets. Some that are caught are put back, hopefully wiser, other are taken to the grill. Meanwhile, most go by without fanfare while they do whatever it is that fish do. The river flows and life goes on. Blink.
Some would have us dam the river to try and catch a tiny number of fish who are allegedly working together to control an area of water that is flowing along with the rest of the river. That's not going to happen, especially when those fish are doing what it is that fish do.
Should I object to an alleged gang of handful of users showing up here and posting about this topic in what could easily be construed to be an organized manner? Should I presume that it is organized? If I asked if there had been any other discussion between any of those allegedly conspiring persons about this topic and posting here, what would the answer be? And even if the answer is that there had been coordination, should the participants be sanctioned? No, because they are orderly and civil and complying with the house rules. Mostly.
In a nutshell, Group A complains about alleged organized "pumping" by Group B. Group B complains about alleged organized "bashing" by Group A. The true underlying basis to both sets of complaints is the subjective content of the other posts; we don't like it and don't think it should be allowed, so let's try and manufacture a rationale by which the content we object to can be stopped. The objectors tend to focus on whatever topic or user(s) are in their sights at the moment, to the exclusion of all else. Tomorrow it'll be something else, and the next day someone else. Meanwhile, the river flows and 99.9% of the fish are oblivious to it.
Each user has the ability to "ignore" posters if they don't want to see their content. The commercials are there; if you want to use your DVR to skip them, go for it.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40926676
Posted by: Modern_Rock
In reply to: Jim Bishop
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=37141537
THe main reason I'm on iHub as opposed to any other chat board or message board is because of the social aspects of it. Raging bull is a bunch of pump and dump posts for the pure sake of pumping a stock.
iHUb is more of a community of friends. THere are certain unwritten code of ethics and morality to be observed in any civilized society. ANd i believe ihub is a civilized social forum as opposed to the wasteland that is other sites such as raging bull.
With that said, the posts I make here are not to pump a stock. Heck, all of my stocks that I post have millions of $ of volume. It is not illiquid and not in need of any market awareness.
I post with online buddies for fun and to say go go go for fun. Like yourself, I lost money posting here because my time and focus should by on Level2 instead of typing the post.
BUt I post for fun and enjoy the social community that is ihub. So if a citizen of this community threatens the well-being of the society, the community needs to speak up and act so as not to allow this infestation to occur.
So i agree with you that not everyone posts on ihub just to make a buck or want to pump anything except maybe a good time.
Did you ever wonder how the pinksheet companies are able to buy a SHELL and make it easy to continue "the game"?
This post probably says it the BEST!...
Posted by: SammyTheBull Date: Saturday, August 23, 2008 3:00:18 PM
In reply to: chefdujour who wrote msg# 73212 Post # of 73219
You can buy a shell for no money down. What they usually do is sell it as an amount payable. The seller retains shares either way (greed). The buyer then gets the shell and pays a promoter with shares to pump it. The seller dumps and makes money, the promoter dumps and makes money and the shell buyer dumps to pay for it. Then they start the cycle again after they exhaust the a/s with a r/s.
Any assets get sold off to a buddy or family member for a ridiculous price and then the shell sits empty until the next buyer. MNTY's all screwed up so it's a worthless shell to anyone and will probably stay that way until dissolved.
Meanwhile, you buy another shell and dump in something tangible (with no real value but a story) and do it all over again before changing business plans to something else.
These guys don't look at it like a scam, they see it as people being dumb and gullible. Kinda like those guys that claimed they had a Bigfoot in a freezer, then said people were stupid to believe them because there's no such thing, lol. They could be pinksheet "ceo's".
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31673091
NAKED SHORT SALES!
This is likely the most important post EVER ON IHUB, imho.....
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=27065039
Posted by: originunknown
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=26688423
Read This, Retire Rich
It took our in-house financial guru decades to learn these wealth-building rules. It'll take you about 10 minutes
By: Ben Stein
Many years ago, when I first started filming Win Ben Stein's Money, my makeup artist was named Suzie. As Suzie combed, straightened, and powdered, I was often reading the Wall Street Journal or Barron's or talking on the phone with my pal Phil DeMuth about investments. At least once a week, Suzie would set her jaw firmly and say, "I've got to learn all about this investing thing."
I never knew quite how to respond, because it's impossible to know all about investing. No one makes the right decisions every time--or even every year. Bill Miller, the brilliant manager of Legg Mason Value Trust, had beaten the S&P for 15 straight years, but last year he lagged well behind it. Warren Buffett, probably the smartest investor of our time, could have pocketed billions by selling Coca-Cola when it was in the 80s and instead rode it down to the 40s. Brilliant hedge-fund traders, who typically make hundreds of millions a year, suddenly come up short and lose billions--and their jobs. It doesn't happen every day, but it happens.
I'll bet you know the feeling. Of watching a stock you sold triple in value in the years that followed. Of holding onto a stock you bought for, say, $15 that's now selling for pennies.
It's happened to me, too. A lot. Which is why, over the years, I've developed a few simple rules to invest by. I consider them the Zen of investing, because if you work at them, they eventually become instinctive. You won't have to think about them. You'll just abide by them.
RULE 1: Instead of trying to time the market, try to tie it.
A few months ago, I was lucky enough to meet Warren Buffett for dinner at a curious restaurant in Omaha called Piccolo Pete's. As we settled in at our table, near the disco ball, I asked him for the best piece of advice he could give an ordinary investor. With a slight laugh, Mr. Buffett said, "Know your limitations." The average investor, he explained, isn't able to pick stocks that will outperform the market. The managers the average investor hires aren't, either.
So unless you're a top sensei yourself, don't try to beat the market. Instead, cast the widest net possible using index funds. Buy a fund that tracks the S&P 500 or maybe even the entire U.S. stock market. If you're able to lock in the gains of the market--roughly 10 percent a year, historically--you will have accomplished a vast amount.
If you want to duplicate the creativity of the master, Buffett, buy shares of his company, Berkshire Hathaway. It's not a low-priced stock--a single share of its Class B stock costs more than $3,500--but it has averaged a 25 percent return over the past quarter century. And its broad array of holdings makes it as diversified as some mutual funds. You are strongly cautioned that Berkshire Hathaway has had down years, and even long stretches of down years. And my pal Warren won't be there forever.
So if you're renting and considering the purchase of a home, or had thought about investing in rental property of your own, favorable deals are out there for the making.
And now for the disclaimer: You may be harder-pressed to find cheap deals in cities where growth is strong, like Gary, Ind.; Spokane, Wash.; and Corpus Christi, Texas. All real estate markets are local, so be sure to do the research for your geographic region.
RULE 2: When you're tempted to sell, buy.
When stocks are in the tank, your gut will tell you to bail, to move your money into less-volatile investments like bonds or money-market funds. It's human nature. It's also a huge mistake. When the market plunges--over days, months, and years--there are opportunities to make real money.
Buffett explained it years ago in an annual report: Whether a stock is priced low or high, he said, it's ownership in the same company. So when the stock market puts a company on sale, that's the best time to buy.
The inverse is also true: When the market is reaching new highs, you'll be tempted to jump in with both feet. Don't. This isn't necessarily a time to sell, but assuming you're investing on your own in taxable accounts, you'll want to be buying less.
Important note: If you do all your investing within a tax-sheltered 401(k) or IRA, maintain or increase your contribution level no matter which way the market's moving.
RULE 3: Collect sectors.
Your best friend as an investor is time. Your portfolio needs to grow slowly and sensibly. This means, of course, that you need to start saving early. For you stock stalwarts, keep in mind that the historical trend has been for the overall market to perform well in an election year, particularly in the latter half.
But you have another best friend, one you don't spend a whole lot of time thinking about: diversification. You don't want to be thrown for a huge loss by drops in any one sector. Make sure your holdings cover the entire investment field, so if "energy" collapses, you might be protected by gains in, for example, "financial services" or "health care." This is another great reason to invest in an S&P 500 index fund: It comprises stocks from virtually every sector.
You need to be diversified by global region, as well. Mostly because of our country's immense trade deficit, the dollar is likely to continue falling for a long, long time. That means that long term you can make money in foreign stocks and bonds denominated in local currencies, because your euros or yuan, for instance, will buy more dollars when you sell. Especially consider rapidly developing countries like China, India, and Russia--they're likely to do well over the long run, although, as we saw last February, the ride is sure to be bumpy. Investing in these emerging markets is a great way to diversify your U.S.-weighted portfolio.
Luckily, there's an index fund for just about everything, including the emerging regions of the world. Your ability to invest in Singapore, Brazil, and other countries from the comfort of your PC is a heaven-sent gift to the average investor. Give thanks. And buy, buy, buy.
RULE 4: Invest in yourself (involuntarily).
Chances are you're putting away money for retirement automatically; your employer takes it out of your paycheck, pretax. If you ever want to amass a lot of liquid assets--that is, money you can spend today if you want--you need to set your savings to automatic, as well.
You can sign up for automatic savings with your bank and broker online. Have a specific amount taken from your checking account each month and put into an index fund, low-fee variable annuity, or diversified mutual fund. Arrange for a second deduction to be put into a foreign index fund. "Fire and forget," as they say about the military's smart weapons.
If you think you can beat the market consistently, good luck to you. It took decades--yes, decades--for these lessons to sink into my fuzzy brain. If it takes you only a few years, you'll be doing great.
Suzie, I hope you're listening.
Posted by PennyBenny
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=17709442
Posted by: Stock Lobster
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=16916068
A QUITE 'FYI' REGARDING POSTS ON THIS BOARD:
Okay, we have a couple of different types of plays which we talk about on this board, and I thought I might just identify them, and make a few observations about the best way to trade them. If you already know this, just move on. This is more for the benefit of some of the newer traders who have a few questions...
First and foremost, before buying anything we might talk about, always check the chart, and do a quick search on the boards for any red flags that might make you uncomfortable. These things are always a judgment call, and there are no 'sure things', no matter how attractive they may seem as we are looking.
NEWS PLAYS: When a stock issues news, generally, we expect to see a pop in the PPS. But, this is not a hard and fast rule. Not all news is created equal.
The news that really moves stocks is generally merger & acquisition news, or major contract and approval news, such as FDA approval for a device or drug.
Again, this also depends on the stock in question. Is the stock at a 52 week low, and there has not been news for a while? Then, like GLXI, HYRF or RXPC, it could have a 500% run when it begins issuing news again.
Has the stock already had a series of PRs in recent days or weeks, and the PPS and RSI are already peaking? You might chose to pass. In that case, all of the anticipation of news may already be factored into the price, and the market may "sell the news" instead.
Even if the news for a stock is fantastic, like ACTC's front page coverage of the New York Times last year, don't immediately translate that into holding the stock long term. See rule #1 on this board. Don't drink the kool-aid.
In the world of penny stocks, most companies are underfunded and need cash. A company that has just brought a new product to market will now need to pay for more products, or pay for past research. Nine times out of ten, that funding will take place through sale of shares. Whether it's USSE, ACTC, PMED or any other great product, the company's first interest is to take care of it's production line, not the value of it's share price. I'm not saying the company may ot have a great future, but you can generally sell your shares at a high price, and wait for a lower entry after the dilution is completed.
CHART PLAYS: These are generally 'bottom buster' plays. The feeling is that a stock which has 'bottomed out' or is in oversold territory, will turnaround. Therefore, we scan charts for stocks that look 'ready' to bounce.
This is an art as much as it is a science, and timing is never exact. Also realize that company dilution is often the cause for many penny stocks sinking into subpenny range. Check for dilution with accumulation/distribution and CMF indicators, amongst others.
I prefer "subbies", that is, stocks in the .001-.009 range. I find it is easier to find a low float, low OS reporting OTCBB in the .001 ready to run to pennies, than it is to find a triple zero stock that will ever manage to break out of the sub-basement. In general, we prefer OTCBB to pinks, because they are reporting to the SEC, and it's possible to scan their filings to look for exact share count, restricted shares, presence of toxic convertibles, and other crucial data.
MOMENTUM/DAYTRADES: Generally speaking, on this board, we aren't focusing on momentum trades, i.e. stocks that are moving rapidly, but could collapse again as quickly as they rose. However, many shell plays and news plays often turn into momentum trades, and so it's important to just review the guidelines.
Don't bet the farm on momentum plays! Their huge gains often inspire traders to put thousands of dollars at risk, but although you could win big, the downside is enormous.
The best technique for momentum plays is 'scalping'...trading between $500-$5000 buying small blocks that are easy to get into and, most importantly, OUT OF (remember, it's not always easy to sell a large block of shares in a momentum trade that's starting to cool off). Check the average size of the block going through on the level 2s. If everyone else is buying 5000 shares, and you just bought 40,000, that should be your clue that you're putting too much into this trade.
If a stock is moving rapidly, and you're not sure why, do a quick check on the board to see if any well known momentum traders or promoters are behind the stock.
If they are, that is not a deal breaker, but be aware that their exit could collapse the PPS suddenly. Find out how long they have been behind the play. Unless the run has just begun, you're generally better off waiting for the next one, unless you're an experienced scalper.
SPAM STOCKS/PROMO STOCKS Sometimes a stock is moving rapdily, and we're not sure why. Inevitably, a helpful poster wil tell us that it's being promoted by spam. Volume is enormous, and PPS is up as well. Again, this isn't a deal breaker, but don't drink the kool-aid. Find out how long the run has been on. The best entry is in the first hours of the first day of the run.
Realize that 99.5% of stocks that are being promoted have two looming problems. 1) shares that were given to the promoter are going to hit the market, heping slow down the run and 2) company dilution is certain to hit the market as well (the reason why the promoter was hired in the first place, is to help the company create "liquidity" to sell shares into) Lebed, Sharkster, Stockster, and many other well known promoters are constanty working penny stocks. Some people visit their sites regularly, just to know which are the latest campaigns, so they can avoid them...lol.
If you have any misgivings or uneasiness about this type of play, always do a google search for the ticker symbol in question, and the word "spam". There are many websites that track spam email, and often stocks are repeat offenders
LOTTO PICKS: On this board, we are defining lotto picks as longer term holds that have the potential of going up 10x. My one requirement for a lotto play is that the Transfer Agent not be gagged, and that you know the exact outstanding share count.
SWING TRADES: Swing trades are two three-day holds, such as ATLJ, EXCS or HYRF in recent weeks. These are safer if you don't have the time to trade during the day, or are unable to daytrade.
LONG TERM HOLDS: This is a short list in the penny world, but they do exist. HMGP, GLXI, TRGD and probably IMOT are examples. For a stock to be a long term hold, imho, it has to be fully transparent, with no debt, and valuable contracts or assets which are undervalued by the market...
To the best of our ability, we will identify the plays as such, when we can...
* please never invest more than you could afford to lose.
* Don't average down
* Double check the current PPS against the charts, and don't buy tops! Buy low, sell high is still the number one rule
* Always have an exit strategy at all times
* Know what your 'Uncle' point is for your plays. I personally never take more than a 50% loss on any stock
Good luck to all!
* * We need change - Posted by: IRISHBULL
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=16564744
My thoughts on Reveres Splits and other filings in penny land...
The question is, how do we get our voices and opinions heard? Who do we email or write to? Change can be made, our voices were heard when we spoke out to pinsheets.com about that dopey .0005 spread they were doing with stocks A-D
------------
OK, a company screws you on a reverse split or huge S-8 etc.. You contact the SEC and they read you they penny stock riot act. blah blah blah. Your broker has the same book they read out of when you don't get a fill. Everyone says these pinkies/OTCBB's are not regulated like listed securities. OK, I can live with that. BUT!! What needs to change IMO is the way these penny stocks are regulated. R/S's, S-8's, SB2's etc are tools given to help companies, they are tools given to listed securities also. If pennies are treated differently than listed securities in many ways ie: they are not as regulated as much as listed securities, I think they should treat the way penny stocks use these tools differently. Penny stocks abuse the chit out of these tools. Its disgusting to see a company like Raven Moon abuse reverse splits and S-8's the way they do. This needs to change ASAP. The abuse needs to end. There should be limitations on everything when it comes to pennies. Just like there's a limitation on 504's ie set amount of cash that can be used(1 million bucks is to much IMO) and a set amount of time in between these 504 which is one year.
Here what I'm think:
1. There should be limitations on the amount of stock these companies can authorize in a certain period of time. ie: QBID, CMKX issuing 350 billion shares and up is criminal and insane, something is seriously wrong with the system. If your company can't make it on these limitations set, then the company should not be publicly traded. Using shares to help is one thing but selling shares to make a living is not acceptable. To these CEO's I say get a day job.
2. S-8 should also have limitations in the amount of shares that can be issued and a time frame as to when the next ones can be filed. This way scams like raven moon can't pump out s-8's weekly for self gain IMO.
3. Reverse split need to be tamed big time. WTF is up with a 1:10,000 R/S? I seen it as high as a 1:100,000.. IMO The most R/S ratio these pigs should be able to do is 1:5 and there should be at least 2 years between reverse splits. Thats not being unrealistic at all. Again, if the company can't make it on that, then they should not be public. Further more, these reverse splits should not be sprung on us out of the blue. All companies should have to file with the OTCBB.com a few days in advance of the reverse split so shareholders have a chance to make a decision. How many times have people come home from work after the market closed and found out the stock they own is doing a R/S and they can't sell now? There should be a few days notice on the daily list for a reverse split, this bullcrap of putting it on the daily at 2pm and doing it the next day is unacceptable. They should show up on the daily list at least 3 days before the actual R/S IMO.
4. 504's These are way to high and are being abused like crazy. 504's should be no more than 500K and should be disclosed in a PR by all companies using this tool.
5. penny stock CEO/CFO's should be treated the same way as listed company CEO/CFO's when it comes to fraud. First off there ain't to many CEO/CFO's bust for fraud in penny land even though most seem to commit it and when they are busted, they pay a fine and go back to ripping people off. WTF is up with that? Martha did 6 months in jail for what??? and these %@#!&%^* are walking around free as a bird with our cash??? http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=15856287 - Houston we have a problem!!! These guys robbed millions from shareholders and what is happening to them? These crooks walked free. No wonder other CEO's abuse the hell out of the system, they know nothing will happen. No consequences. At the very least they pay a fine which is usually 1000th of a % of the money they robbed.
These are some of the problems that need to be address to regulators. Friday really pissed me off with ADNL pulling that 1:10,000 reverse split especially when it appears to be coming out of the hole and running. It apparently was a trap and the spread held many in .0003 x .0006 - I just picture these little freakin weasels sitting behind a desk smiling ear to ear knowing that they will now be able to do the same thing over again. Its like maxing out a credit card and then have Visa wiping your debt out and setting you balance to zero so you can go out and spend spend spend again..
I know I'm not they only trader that feels this way, just getting sick and tired watching these %$@&*!% getting away with this hardcore Raven Moon type abuse abuse.
A good list of Republican lies...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=15923091
50 DUMBEST THINGS Bush ever said...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=15913086
Has this one been posted?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=234672
The "Katrina Problem" explained!
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=15378170
i love that one too!!! so true
Time is of the essence!
I have already received $555 in pledges to BAIL me out of JAIL tomorrow afternoon!
$465 so far has been pledged online by the good people who use IHUB! I NEED MORE SUPPORT!
I have sent Thank You notes to those who pledged to help Jerry's Kids in your memory!
Hopefully others will join in soon and help me to raise my goal this year of $1,200 to send 2 of Jerry's Kids to Summer Camp!
I will be carted away to Jr's Comedy Club tomorrow, placed in prison garb, forced to be pictured handcuffed behind bars, and made to sit and rot in "JAIL" until I raise this year's "BAIL" goal of $1200 via telephone calls to friends and family !!! $1200 will allow 2 children with Muscular Dystrophy to attend Summer Camp !! IMAGINE the JOY this will bring to them!
I am pleading for people to "HAVE A HEART" and help me raise my goal.
Click on the following link, then click on "LOOK WHO HAS DONATED!"
http://url.fm/30b
Then click on the link that will allow you to donate online, and help a couple of "Jerry's Kid's".
This link will be open for the next 2 weeks to give people with a 'GOOD HEART' time to participate!
NO pledge is too small. $1, $2, $5, $10, $20 or MORE.....it all adds up!!
Thanks go out once again to those who have helped in this year's "LOCK UP Event".
Dave
Another good one Fred.
I read them as I'm surfing, but I wait for people such as yourself to submit them.
Keep the great posts coming.
Phil
I got anudder one!
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=9394285
(I'm including the taxt, Phil. Thanks for the hint.)
Fred
Posted by: grubmaster
In reply to: The Original dpb5! who wrote msg# 63329
Date:1/24/2006 7:35:13 PM
This is my last post on the subject, I hope.
Rick wants iHub to be an extension of the SEC, DOJ, NASD and every other regulatory and law enforcement agency. He wants us to determine when regulations and laws are being allegedly broken and to "act" upon that. Of course, that is not our job, not our duty, and not within the scope of our capabilities or resources, irrespective of how passionately he believes it should be. We are, if you will, judge, jury and executioner with regard to our Terms of Use, not the laws that fall under the purview of other appropriately charged and empowered entities.
I respect his desire to expose bona fide illicit activities. However; he so far out in left field that he's beyond foul territory and into the bleachers regarding what the role of message board operators are versus entities legally empowered to regulate and enforce securities laws. He can't accept that, went on repeated tantrums to take matters into his own hands, despite EXTENSIVE communications both publicly and privately from myself, Matt, and many other well meaning users.
We are under no obligation to provide an unlimited platform for users to attack iHub and/or its customers. Since he would not change his behavior, I decided there was no alternative but to help him relocate to some other forum where he can rant to his heart's content.
I agree.
Here is the whole post with the link:
Posted by: grubmaster (on the jail board)
In reply to: carpediem260 who wrote msg# 76672 Date:1/22/2006 3:30:56 PM
Post # 76673 of 76718
I'm confident that we're doing it just about right. 48% of the complaints are from longs, "pumpers" and "touts" complaining that we don't "censor" the shorts and bashers enough. 47% come from the shorts and "bashers" complaining that we don't censor the longs, "pumpers" and "touts" enough.
3% complain about the noise posted by the above two camps about the other camp.
The remaining 2% have legitimate complaints.
#msg-9357987
Thanks for the submission.
Phil
I said I did not want to start a dialogue about the content of the post on this board.
Take it to the parking lot.
Phil
Actually, I preferred the response and prefer the way IHub and SI is run to RB and Yahoo, which would be the end result of that poster's suggestion.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/replies.asp?msg=9350820
Unfortunate,
But there is a lot of truth in it.
Please don't start a dialogue about the post here though by answering me.
Thanks,
Phil
My nomination for top post:
#msg-9350820
To all:
This board is not to be used for posting jokes or for idle chit chat.
There are plenty of other boards for that.
Please read the Ibox and post per the suggestions.
Phil
secureresources on selfishness
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=7082522&txt2find=bad
dbleagl on self control..
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8962652
Best post EVER I've seen regarding Naked Short Sales ... or as the post calls Fraudulent Stock Trades.....
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8770266
Disclaimer: Posted By: 99Dan To: Phil (Bullrider)
"Actually I read that joke on SI tonight and copied it here and changed it
to use your name for fun. It was only mean't in good humor.
... was trying to think who might like beer and you came to mind....(g)"
"If that ever happens, just pull the plug." #msg-8572518
:o)
A FASCINATING TOPPOST regarding the subject of short selling and naked short selling.
Worth more than ONE readthrough...IMHO!!
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5852431
Hey guys,
I thought this was an interesting read, considering all the naked shorting talk. It is from the Mark Cuban weblog. He think shorting is good, if the company is sound and operating efficiently. Look at paragraph 9+10. Ted
http://www.blogmaverick.com/entry/1234000230033533/
I short stocks. I make money shorting stocks. Some of my best friends are the stocks that became worthless over the years and I never had to cover.
I short stocks because I'm a firm believer that in a universe of more than 10k public companies, not all of them are well operated. I also believe that since short selling is rarely if ever offered as an option by traditional brokers to their customers, there is always going to be a bias towards demand trying to push the price of a stock up. That in turn creates an opportunity for short sellers who get to take advantage of that upside bias.
Of course there are risks to short selling. If you don't fully understand what you are doing, you can lose more on the short side since a stock can only fall to zero, but it can go up to any price. To me, that just gives me reason to do more homework, not to shy away.
I thought this blog entry would be timely because the SEC has recently taken steps to stop abuse of the rules of shorting. One of which is that you have to actually borrow shares before you can sell them (if you don't know what this means, just ask your broker). Some short sellers abused the process by giving sell orders to their brokers for stocks they don't own, or have not borrowed. The SEC decided to finally enforce the rule and make brokers confirm that the shares have been borrowed and delivered. Some short sellers don't like that this rule is being enforced. I actually like it.
I like it because it balances the playing field. Sometimes when I, or anyone, borrow a stock in order to short it, we have to pay a fee to borrow that stock. If a stock is heavily shorted, and as a result, difficult to borrow, the owners of the shares will only lend them to you if you pay them some percentage of the stocks value. It may be 2 pct, or go as high as 15 pct on an annual basis. The "VIG" becomes part of the cost of doing business. If I'm paying the VIG because I think the companies prospects are so poor it's worth it, then I want everyone playing by the rules.
Why? In case I'm wrong about the stock. If by chance I'm wrong (and honestly, it doesn't happen very often), naked shorts increase the demand for shares of stock in the company beyond what it legally should be. How can that be?
Because even naked shorts have to cover sometime.
Particularly if the stock is moving up. Even though they didn't play by the rules, their brokers will still apply the margin rules against the short sellers accounts. If a stock moves hard against them, they will cover. Their covering stock, moves the stock price higher, which in turn hurts my short position.
I also want them playing by the rules in case I own a stock that is heavily shorted. Sometimes the shorts are wrong. If the demand to short the stock is high, and I think the shorts are wrong, forcing the shorts to borrow the stock first, can increase the demand to borrow the stock I own and push the VIG higher. Nothing better than owning a stock that other shorts have wrong. I can be the one charging 10 pct or more VIG , and make money on the long side.
So mark me down as a short seller who thinks naked short selling is wrong.
That said, let me also say that when we had broadcast.com, and this would be my position if I ran a public company today, other than making oodles of money and having lots of demand for your stock, there was and is nothing better for the price of a stock than having it shorted. It doesn't matter if the shares are shorted naked, or fully borrowed. Doesn't matter a bit.
The more shorts, the more shares shorted, the more pent up demand there is for the stock. For a company that is well run and operationally successful, short shares are like an insurance policy to protect the downside for the price of your stock and more likely push the stock price ever higher. When we had broadcast.com I used to beg people to short our stock. If they didn't like what we were doing I would actively suggest to them that they short the stock. Sure, it might have slowed the rise of the stock in the short term but who cared. I knew we were going to be able to hit our numbers, so why not. If we did our jobs, it just meant they would have to cover the stock and in a down market, that helped keep the price up and in an up market, that could cause the stock to run. Both very good things.
Which leads to one of the things I look for when I short a stock.
The louder a company complains about the shorts, the worse the company. Companies bitching and moaning about shorts trying to hit their stocks are companies that are far too worried about their short term stock price and are looking for an excuse to give their shareholders.
A smart CEO is out there telling shareholders that the numbers will speak for themselves, that the company is doing what we set out to do, and if you believe in what we are doing, buy the stock. If you don't, you probably shouldn't.
A company with problems finds a reason to talk about anything but the company as a reason for the stock not doing well. It reminds me of the music industry. They didn't want to address what really was causing sales to fall, so they blamed it all on the internet and piracy. Piraphobia in their case, Shortophobia in the case of public companies. Rule of thumb, IT'S NEVER THE SHORT SELLERS, IT'S ALWAYS THE COMPANY.
Short sellers also provide a 2nd set of eyes looking from a completely different perspective. When a short seller called, I would always talk to them. It's possible they know something you don't. Maybe there is a problem with your product or service that they have heard from one of your customers that hasn't filtered to you. The short sellers give you a heads up about that problem and the chance to go fix it. In essence, they are giving you a challenge and saying, "if you can correct what we think is wrong, or explain to your shareholders that we are wrong on a certain subject (doesnt matter if its real or made up), we are going to have to buy shares of your stock to cover our shorts". How in the world can that be a bad thing? If they are wrong, you tell them why. If they make something up, you tell the truth. That simple. Then they buy your stock to cover.
So if you own a stock, and the company or other shareholders are blaming the share price on shortsellers, run away. Quickly. You are in the wrong stock. If you are short that stock, keep on digging. There is probably a lot of shit buried in the company books waiting to be discovered if you haven't already.
Short Selling is an important part of the market. If you manage your own stock portfolio, not understanding how it works is the equivalent of playing basketball and having one hand tied behind your back. You are going to be at a huge disadvantage.
Susie to the contrary notwithstanding, this deserves TOP POST status, just for being a really neat idea, beautifully expressed (#msg-5852416):
Dear Mr. Epstein:
My dad took me to Fenway Park when I was eight or nine years old.
Walking up the ramp, seeing the greenest grass I'd ever seen, the lights, the ballplayers...it was magac to me; and to many thousands of others.
My dad is 85, and like so many others he has suffered, perservered and adopted the motto, "Wait 'till next year."
He NEVER gave up, nor did I.
Last fall was magic.
I offer you an idea; find Red Sox fans throughout New England. Men and women. ALL 80 YEARS OR OLDER.
No 75 year old "kids."
Invite them to Fenway for the April 11th home opener.
Put the players out on the field.
Let each 80 year or older present a World Championship ring to a player.
It's my sense that it'll bring the house down; that the fans cheers will travel all the way to the Bronx.
If this idea appeals to you I respectfully ask but one thing; please include my dad. Herbert Greenblatt.
Sincerely,
Alan Greenblatt
7 Franklin St.
Douglas, Mass. 01516
508-475-1154
ok Phil,
But my points remain the same.
I love the commentary on this board about the TOPPOSTS!
It adds "substance" to a previously drone board!
TO,
I was just kidding hasher.
But I kind of knew he thought we were still on the jail board.
LOL
Have fun,
Phil
Nah Phil,
I don't mind commentary that relates to a TopPost posted here.
In fact, I kind of like it and bet others would too!
Post on!
More like a new boot.
Let's take this somewhere else.
This board is for IHUB top posts.
If we're not careful someone will accuse us of being OT.
LOL
Have fun,
Phil
looks like a new shoe to me
See my edit.
Have fun,
Phil
i'm thinking 4 of the 5 would be booted, but I don't think this person had bad intentions.. just not too attentive.
You mean she/he wasn't booted?
Let's look.
Have fun,
Phil
Edit: Das boot: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/profile.asp?user=54730
I know.. nice.. has anyone bothered to contact this genius?
Posted by: janice shell (on the Jaihouse board)
In reply to: IH Admin [Matt] who wrote msg# 61240 Date:3/23/2005 7:27:29 PM
Post #61323 of 61330
LOLOLOL!!
Posted by: avg_up
In reply to: None
Date:3/23/2005 7:17:46 PM
Post #of 151567
LOOKING FOR AN ANSWER
Do you have to pay IHUB to keep your username and posts active now. I've created five different accounts over the last week and posted the alotted 3 posts.
The next day, all posts are deleted and the username no longer works.
Answers anyone?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5835843
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5835910
Have fun,
Phil
I know; I read it last night...very good
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