Alternative Reality

[restripe]

I for one hope if we continue up it is very short term I picked up puts on Friday three weeks out

[gdl]

My timeline of 6/6 remains intact. That's only 5 trading days away.

Current breakout appears to have momentum and has ignored inflationary data.
I will let the market on Tuesday dictate the move till 6/6.

Bull case: next 5 days has to be strong and no more than ONE trading day to be lower and that also can't be a deep drop. Target is unknown but maximum can get to 4650 area as unlikely as it sounds.

Bear case: next 5 days has to show deteriorated momentum immediately. That suggests a small up move at best on Tuesday and the next 4 days after continued and accelerated weakness.

If 6/6 is an important TURN DATE we either have a peak counter move then or a drop below 3840.

These are the ONLY 2 scenarios I can see. next 5 days should be explosive or fizzled out quickly. Take your pick.
===============================================================
OIL is the ONLY commodity that is near a breakout price at 115. It can surge to as high as 140 area. o idea if it does breakout but any move from here better be lower.

Inflation data is dead ahead and thi economy is showing strength still. new homes sales was hurt by material shortages only. Resales are near record highs and the turnover rate from placing a biome to selling it is 15 days, a record.

We might get the 10 year note, which is in insanely low yields to spark higher next week and even break 3.24 from 2.74 it is today. The dollar has dropped to 101 and that also is likely to spike higher. they should ALL move in sync next week IF we do get strong economic data.

[gdl]

I believe TRUMPS burner phone can be traced. They know who and where they were bought and when. We know exact time trump spoke to McCarthy during the riot. We also know WHO the other phones were given to. ALL cellphone calls can be traced even if the identity is not known. Since the FBI has exact purchases in time and location the store can have a LOG of the numbers given that day. They can match the cell tower calls in a pretty accurate location of caller.

In other words they probably already have a good idea about the calls Trump made and to who.

I also expect the reconnaissance tours had dozens of eye witnesses to verify who what when where. Even if they avoided the cameras.

the 8 day jan 6th public hearings will be explosive on fact finding but like the impeachment silenced by the GOP. Only the DOJ can take it up and they don't seem so enthusiastic about it.

[gdl]

Breakout is obvious. We can see an 11 day event where this was day 5.
Next week has to ignore all the inflation data and it is a huge week for that.

The scenario of a deep drop next week is out simply because the momentum was too strong this week. A flat week is ominous for the market and suggest a rollover.

I hesitate to call this the real deal here but ther were major technical markers suggesting a big rally. So i hate to admit it but next week can surge a lot higher.

Scratch my 2 scenarios and change them to either a flat week or another big up week.

[gdl]

A dramatic moment: This day needs to close above 4130. It hit it and bounced back so far. An overlap AT CLOSE is critical to end this whole 5 wave structure IMO. This is JUST MY opinion. not an rule by Elliot Wave.

I would feel a lot comfortable this is the real thing, a counter rally if we close at or above todays highs.

I find it interesting that 6/6 fit with a reversal date seen a month ago.
The week of 5/31 thru 6/3 has BIG economic data points from housing to employment and direct implication on INFLATION!

Will this rally hold up next week? Is it a watershed event and dramatic reversal back down? I can say with certainty that next weeks likely bad economic data reinforcing inflation is here to stay will result in ONLY 2 scenarios. A FLAT week or the start of a deep drop again. A FLAT week can indicate a rolling over OR absorbing the bad news in stride and setting up for more advancements in the next few weeks.

[gdl]

Mark Meadows BURNED documents in front of Scott Perry after the election.
Trump used a burner phone during the 7 hour missing phone calls on January 6th.
Reconnaissance Tour given on January 5th by GOP member who first denied then revised his statement. All the rioting groups met BEFORE the riot. Oath Keepers and Proud Boys. They had direct connections to many GOP Members and in fact there was intermediaries making contact between them. The BURNER Phones were distributed to TRUMP FAMILY MEMBERS.

You would have to be an IDIOT or a fanatic whining bigoted A' Hole to STILL accept TRUMP and his stolen election. But guess what, a massive MAJORITY in more than HALF the US States endorse support and welcome Trump and his minions. The election results are stark PROOF that human beings have been lucky so far not to destroy itself. But given our huge achievement in science we are racing to make that happen.

So is the stock market rational? As rational as electing the most corrupt incompetent bigoted despot. His incompetence allowed for our advanced scientific brain to make clear the facts and irrefutable evidence of a corrupt immoral leadership and his takeover of the GOP and Supreme Court. We APPROVE of the dismantling of our democracy and in fact are anxious for its destruction.

VOTE WHITE. VOTE for a two tier system, the one percent winners and the 99 percent suckers. But the 99% actually think they are part of the 1% beneficiaries.

I am mad as hell that even today, 5 years after my rants became reality YOU the voter still deny or excuse such drastic self destructive actions. I can understand why Russia given a small window for democracy rejected it for the known routine. Here democracy is all that we know and yet we are pleading for it's destruction because the bigots and lazy whiners that want everything given to them find it easy to blame "others" for their problems. Scapegoating is the GOP mantra. They do this while raping the middle class enriching the top one percenters.

[gdl]

More likely this is an eleven day rally ending on 6/6.

How high? Not likely we get the full retrace to 4650 area since the bottom was not a washout event.

OIL should base here and then surge to 140 area. Dollar retrace and 10 year yield retrace should also base here and spike higher. Market now viewing everything as positive, same data different perspective. This hope and dreams stage does not last long.

For betting purposes this move, if an 11 day variety should have perhaps only one or two days that is down and they should be very shallow drops.

[gdl]

Last day of rally according to pattern from drop. if this is not a continuation we should easily drive higher. Seems now all data is good for the market. For now there is a hope that inflation is temporary despite glaring proven signs it is not. You can't have OIL, Consumer Spending, Tight Labor market, War, supply problems conclude this is temporary.

This rally could be the wave 4 retrace all the way up to 4650 area BUT I highly doubt it. in fact I am still leaning heavily towards a drop to 3500 within weeks. If 6/6 is the top we should start that drop there. If 6/6 is the bottom we have a dramatic move ahead of us and fast. only window is 5/31 to 6/6 a 5 day drop. That scenario however seems unlikely given a usual post holiday cheer.

[gdl]

MY PATTERN RECOGNITION has one flaw. It ends this Friday?

Not likely the day after memorial Day we start a big slide.

[gdl]

Clear visual pattern recognition seen but AFTER the full 5 wave structure is complete.

Each wave down took shorter and went steeper than the previous wave.
The last wave dropped 320 points in 3 days.

IF, a BIG IF, we are to see a Seventh Wave it should drop steeper and faster than the last. That calls for a one to two day crash.

This is observation only and not a recommendation it actually happens. Till the current drive stalls I can't determine if it has validity. Need just 4105 to doubt this can happen. 4135 would seal it's fate that it doesn't happen.

ONE OTHER observation. Each double wave counter move had longer time to achieve the top of its wave before the next slide started. First was only ONE DAY before slide resumed. Next was THREE DAYS before slide resumed. We are in DAY FOUR of the double wave rise. Logic would indicate DAY FIVE should be the last rise (IF) the pattern continues for a Seventh Wave.

So we have two indicators that time the Seventh Wave but so far i have ZERO IDEA there is a seventh drop.

Nice to finally see a structure but it is likely useless if complete.

[gdl]

Mentioned the technical call before. Now MACD has shown bullish indicators.
Today is the first day of any significant move so far. We have till at least 4130 to call this a reversal. We also need 2 solid weeks of upside. we just got one week.

I believe the 20% mark on decline was the catalyst as a Pavlovian response.

We should now see another week of gains. How high and strong remains to be seen.

My canary in the coal mine JUST BROKE DOWN! It is the first to go when the market is about to sober up. I find it interesting that the green light for stocks his exactly when the breakdown occurs. Perhaps i am reading too much into this but when such an explosive idea, concept, and material company has this kind of doubt nearing a supposed end of the stock market drop it makes you wonder.

Even with the mentioned technical markers declaring victory for the Bull I have my doubts. The move TODAY should set up for a momentum push higher in almost every day going forward for the next week.

I watch for the momentum and strength. it has to at a minimum hit 4130 area in this push.

===============================================================
On the off chance this wave pattern does not break from prior wave structures we have to see a break of just 4105 on this current rally. Each wave down had a double rebound move before breaking down once again to lower lows. The double move here needs to exceed that prior pattern of failed sustainability. We do not have long to wait.

[restripe]

Red

[restripe]

Big ride tomorrow

[gdl]

FED stated exactly what they have already stated before. No change yet street waited for and got what was their plan all along. My my. Cheering the same news that caused the angst and now relief? It is likely we will have a rally unless they wake up tomorrow with a hangover. Baring any change we could see a big rally till 6/6.

I give up calling the immediate path since I was completely wrong so far.

[gdl]

FED stated exactly what they have already stated before. No change yet street waited for and got what was their plan all along. My my. Cheering the same news that caused the angst and now relief? It is likely we will have a rally unless they wake up tomorrow with a hangover. Baring any change we could see a big rally till 6/6.

I give up calling the immediate path since I was completely wrong so far.

[gdl]

Market will soon find a bottom just as we learned that a sitting US Representative had a reconnaissance tour of the Capital Layout on January 5th. Why the 5th? So these geniuses don't have to remember what they saw more than 24 hours later. Is this just rumor? NOPE. If it wasn't all shown on video it was reported by dozens of people in the Capital at the time. The January 6th committee has the goods.

Think about the implication. A House Member intended to have the rioters break into specific members chambers to do? A) give them a talking to B) spank them C) congratulate them D) kidnap E) KILL

My money was on D and E. Hang Pence and Pelosi and kidnap other LIBERAL DEMS.

Once the Committee shows in graphic detail on the planned coup the result will be Who cares. Trump's impeachment on Ukraine was a slam dunk. They had hard irrefutable evidence so the GOP and the 40 plus voter population decided they didn't care.

The hearings will be a joke. the world will watch the total destruction of the bastion of Democracy. The GOP will pretend it is an attack on the GOP and have FOX come to the rescue. Sad part is we don't need a FOX, or even anyone denying what happened and why. The people have spoken. they approve of the dismantling and in fact gleefully welcome it. the sad part is that NO ONE is presenting the TRUTH ! No newscaster has actually condemned FOX for treasonous propaganda. NO newscaster has actually acknowledged that after 5 years of facts the voters understand the truth and accept it. NO embrace it.

I have been waiting for a breakthrough moment where the NEWS reflects the will of the people. Just state the obvious. the people want a revolution to purge all their paranoia prejudice and hate. Doesn't matter if it actually works or makes sense. The NYC Riots during the Civil War was a great example of getting the job done. If you had money you bought your way out of serving. The rioters planned on attacking the rich. It failed miserably. they easily transitioned into hanging a dozen free blacks. Problem solved!

[gdl]

IF this is a bottom of some sort we will know right after the FED Minutes release.
The street wants them to say they will hold off on more rate hikes, or slow it down due to economic weakness. Stagflation is here especially with OIL so high.

It's called wishing and hoping for a good ending. If the FED does oblige we hit a temporary bottom. If the street does not like what they hear a continuation down nd this time decidedly below 3900.

Today also was my last day for a possible crash. That seems unlikely now.

[gdl]

Seems 3900 has been a magnet for the 100 th time yet not able to breakout. Seems 6/6 might just be the lows and not the counter rally highs. Street convinced the Fed will hold off on raising rates. SPX 3500 should be hit before a major rally. So far not even close.

[gdl]

Have CALLS for today, crash PUTS for today and tomorrow.
I am all over the place. The economic data keeps pounding the message this economy is likely to see stagflation. The 70's was not pretty for investors. this time around think 1930's as we grind our way into decades of malaise.

MY timeline was this week for a crash IF 6/6 was to be a TOP of the next counter rally.

I was so sure a spike move up today followed by a crash and it now seems we slip/slide our way to 3550 area.

IF by some miracle we get the deep lows either today or tomorrow (3550) count on a HUGE rally lasting 8 trading days.

[gdl]

After hours are not looking good. IF my assumption is way off I will stop posting and betting for a while till I can get a better handle on situation. I was sure tomorrow would be a big up day and even though after hours means nothing I thought momentum would drive the price higher already.

[gdl]

Ran as expected today. Because it did i bet the BULL for tomorrow and possibly till 1PM on Wednesday. This is a short term play regardless of the action after Wednesday.

Are we really finished with this BEAR? I think not but am NOW going against a proven track record in DeMarks Indicators. For today i am a BULL.

My target on the top of range is 4145 and within the next day and a half.

[gdl]

CONTRARIAN EXTREMELY BULLISH INDICATOR - Flashed on 5/16

DeMark indicator went to it's highest reading on 5/16 indicating a reversal dead ahead. This indicator is rare, i believe only 7 registered and all but 1 was correct.

I am just presenting to you the possibility of a strong rebound that has already started. I will keep this in mind but have not yet changed my position. In fact this indicator might be a tad too early (IF) I get my crash this week.

Who knows. Just playing my target bottom for now. Actually placed short term CALL expiring Wednesday.

[gdl]

IF we actually hit above 4140 tomorrow it would overlap the 5 wave structure and most wave theorist would conclude we are done with the bear for a long while. "I" see it completely different. I would call the overlap a wave TWO and all prior FIVE sub-waves only a wave ONE drop. It could also make itself known rather quickly with a 500/600 point drop from there. Would fit perfectly with the 3550 lows that i assume is still ahead of us.

I am stubbornly convinced THIS whole drop needs a dramatic capitulation style slide before any larger upside is likely. We only have till tomorrow to see if we get that large bounce and immediate reaction on Wednesday will let me now if my theory has any legs. While i call for a huge one day crash it makes sense for Wednesday to be that day BUT we can have a slow crawl sideways to down before the crash. thats why I called the ending window for the crash from this Wednesday to next Monday at the latest.

[gdl]

Just calling today and tomorrow regardless of a crash scenario or not.
Still believe today ends around 50 SPX points higher. Assuming a decent close today tomorrow has a very strong probability of an even larger move.

Tuesday range: Between 4090 and 4140.

[gdl]

Unlikely i get my crash today. Q's however is damn weak yet again.
I expect all indices to end on a positive note. SPX should capture around 50 SPX points. IF that happens tomorrow should see 150 SPX point rise and likely the peak before a 500 point SPX drop on Wednesday.

All speculative. I set up my bets in last few weeks on the premise we will crash before a decent rally ensues. So far i have been dead wrong. Timeline seems so squeezed and that's why I keep playing the homerun bet. I now have the last support level broken at 3840. It can now slice right thru everything if it wants.

I laid out my next 2 day play and will ONLY adhere to it if the market stays in my assumed path.

If we close around 50 SPX points higher I will be betting for a Tuesday rise of 150 plus on SPX. IF that comes to pass i will be betting for an immediate crash right after. I no longer need to look anywhere other than immediate 3 day moves. Thats only because i see a dramatic move dead ahead.

[gdl]

I tried GOLD futures way back and got burned. I now play with a limited amount and expect to lose it all each time i bet. my goal is to hit 1 of 3 or 4 bets in a minimum of 10 times return. in this environment it is like a magnet. The hits i made intra-day is not enough to offset my losses thru this whole bear drop.

I am now obsessed with Fibonacci dates and numbers. I believe 6/6 will represent the top of next counter rally. I also think it requires a minimum of 8 trading days from the lows to possibly achieve that top.

I have my window and it is tight. tight enough for me to bet for a ONE DAY big drop. Seems Monday is not going to be that drop. That leaves me with the assumption we once again have a double top before the next drop. It lasts 3 days at most. Friday was technically an up day. Today it seems we should see another up day. if true tomorrow should be a 100 plus SPX last day surge.

I will probably bet late Tuesday on the following condition:
1 - Tuesday close is not much higher than 4100.
2 - Tuesday achieves a 100 Plus SPX point move.
3 - Monday also has to end the day up.

The bet is a long shot with up to 20K on the line. Late Tuesday IF IF IF Monday and Tuesday run the way i suggested. It will expire half on Wednesday (one day play) and the other half on Friday.

If Monday is up I might also bet for the 100 Plus surge on Tuesday.
===============================================================

I make this predetermined play on one assumption, 6/6 will be the HIGHS for a long time to come. That requires a real crash, a one day variety and also enough time to spike up from 3550 area to 4750 area. 8 day window?

I play with money i can lose. I also make wild assumptions on the correct path and if it follows that path i will bet for the dramatic drop. MY window is closing fast. It makes my bet window consist of Monday thru this Wednesday for that dramatic drop. I throw in the towel after that.

[Wayne R]

I'm in the middle of what's going on in agriculture and other stuff.

Anyway, we are all effed. The price of everything is going up.

I'd buy futures in any grains, cereals

Just a thought, but I promised myself to never do that again after an ass kicking

[gdl]

The decisions behind a continued bear drop.

The rally started at 1 PM not after 2:30 which usually gives better odds of long term directional changes. Suspect.

The latest support level was breached at went to as low as 3800 indicating a failed bottom. Suspect.

A MONDAY close that is NOT strong and not in positive territory spells the immediate future is fast down. never seen an ending of such a deep move down without multiple days of decisive upside swings.

The length of this drop, 11 days, is within the other wave timeline but must end within days (if it didn't already end). This makes MONDAY critical. A failed rally pushes the timeline for the drop to end and therefore hit the bottom target that much sooner. Either a reversal is already here or a crash becomes more likely.

The rally Monday MUST be decisive and sustainable thru the whole day. A move of over 50 SPX points at a minimum. In no more than 3 days (close of Wednesday) it has to break above 4150. To be determined.

4130 is needed to overlap the prior wave negating a 5th extended wave structure.

So while there are reasons for both scenarios to hold my (GUT) tells me this was not (yet) a decisive bounce and only recovered from the latest breach at 3840. My wait to determine if this is an extended 5th wave or not becomes more lopsided on Monday. Even a positive start above 30 SPX points suggests the bear might have ended. A 3 day drive above 4130 makes it definitive for me the bear is over.

Since the drop, 11 days, and subsequent slightly up Friday makes the timeline within the past wave moves. A drop on Monday makes 13 days the tie for longest since this structure was developed. That's why I see only a deep drop on Monday as opposed to continuation of bear. Makes my decision and bet that much easier.

If Monday starts (normal) in a continuation of bull ONLY a major reversal mid-day would change that BULLISH stance. If Monday starts with pressure down i will assume a crash is elevated to over 50% odds.

[gdl]

Been going over the charts to see a rhythm in this drop. Been wrong so far on daily basis and resistance at 3900 multiple times. Only reason i insist that is not the lows is because each time it drops below it takes out support levels. I have made a mess of my bets. Went over the years bets and realize i am down over 20K in 2022.

I see a final drop either this coming Monday or the one after. Monday should either start strong and stay strong or show weakness early on and continue to drop. IF Monday is an up day Tuesday and even part of Wednesday should also. I have 4100 as target on Wednesday (IF) we rally next week. IF we do rally to part of Wednesday I see a 3 day maximum crash window after.

Even though i keep looking at 6/6 as a possible low it does not fit the current wave structure. It should be a turn date however.

My ever changing view of the market but with constant idea that we don;t have any big rally till we hit 3580 target.

Monday betting - Add to bets early MONDAY only if we start out decidedly lower. Betting Monday and Tuesday expiration. A crash scenario - extended 5th drop.

Monday no bets if starts the day decidedly positive.

[gdl]

I also have a BIG target for OIL. 145 plus. Now that seems impossible but...
The Dollar also has broken out and waiting for 114.

These are crazy numbers And momentum indicator suggests they are good possibilities to hit.

[gdl]

Trying to wrap my head on this pattern.

Start with the timeframe of the January swoon till now.
10 week drop, 3 week rebound. Currently 8 weeks ending this coming Monday.

Using that scale we come to 6/6/2022 as the final lows (3580?) That is 11 trading day from now. OR we could have just an 8 week low (ends on Monday) followed by a 10 day (2 week) rally to 6/6.

I am sticking to the assumption that 3580 is the final ,lows of this downturn. Also see 6/6 as some major turn day. If Monday is crash day, which now seems a long shot a 2 week spike up till 6/6 is logical. If Monday hold up than 6/6 seems more likely the bottom.

The market has conditioned all to see intra-day moves as sharp reversals and bet accordingly. Very hard and not logical now to hold out for many days.

I also know that the 3900 - 3870 lows broke today so it will break below 3870 at some point soon.

BUT betting the pattern is impossible with so many different patterns and intra-day moves. I have switched to one day bets trying to catch the trend and pick when that trend reversed. Sloppy trading for me but it keeps me in the game for when the bottom falls out.

Assuming 6/6 is important we are running out of time for the 3580 target to hit early next week. If it does than a 2 week big rally still holds water. If we don't drop by Wednesday to 3580 6/6 seems likely the peak or crash day.

Talking this out with many different scenarios. Can't determine which way we go. Hope Monday gives clarity.

[gdl]

Been jumping in and out and barely get out with gains. But I’ll take it. Recapture of 3900 again! Throw my drop for Monday into Tuesday off. We might get a double move higher to around 4100 early next week. This is never easy. Play the intra day bets as market moves. Always looking for a mid day turnaround. One of these days a move straight down to 3780 ? Seems logical. Catch everyone off guard.

[gdl]

SEVEN WAVE structure! Broke all support already. Realization should set in.
I have a firm 3580 target by Tuesday the latest. Been in and out of PUTS betting only a couple of days out for quick gains this time. Frustrated the sucker doesn't break again for a fast drop. It NOW seems likely that 3580 target might be met in a fairly orderly fashion over next few trading days. Was ALWAYS looking for a washout event. not to be so far.

[gdl]

Been playing daily for each days move. Doing fine. I once again loaded up on PUTS this time expiring next Tuesday. A 5 day drop seems likely to be the bottom or ner bottom of this SEVEN wave structure.

[restripe]

Switch to paper trading this thing is going down

[gdl]

As expected 3860 is the last stop before another slide. Should see a decent intra-day rebound but before close it should decisively break below. NOW it looks like 3580 target will be seen no later tan mid-week of next.

Seems the only way to make money is to catch the single days slides or wait till 3580 is hit. The rebound should be steep and fast.

[gdl]

Just as i gave up. Slow methodical drop. IF this matches the last drop we should see 3580 lows in only a few more days. 3900 about to break down as the lows 3860 should be taken out today.

[gdl]

Looked at this move this way to Sunday and i STILL think 3500 will be seen before the multi-week rally. I also doubt we can hit 4200 before we see 3500.

I just don't have a visual pattern to play off of. If 3900 was the basing area you should have seen the multiple retests cause a huge bounce and so far it is not indicating this.

Pretty sure a dramatic slide to 3580 area will happen before we get the big multi-week retrace. Have not figured out the pattern. Maybe we hold up till 6/6 or is that the lows? No idea other than confident currant slide has not seen a bottom.

WEEKLY SPX is more defined. 10 week drop followed by a 3 week rally and now we are in week 8. This would indicate that 6/6 is the 10th week and bottom of this current slide.

My money (will be) on 6/6 hitting 3580 zone. Unless we do rally past 4200 I will stick with this low.

[gdl]

A solid gain today sets the seal on lows for now. It is a very weak move so far and does not seem to be able to sustain weeks on the upside but perhaps this is just a basing pattern before the real move up.

[gdl]

The panel leaders said in their letter that they had evidence that “directly contradicts” claims by GOP members of the House Administration Committee that security video showed no tours had taken place ahead of the attack.

“Public reporting and witness accounts indicate some individuals and groups engaged in efforts to gather information about the layout of the U.S. Capitol, as well as the House and Senate office buildings, in advance of January 6, 2021,” they wrote to Loudermilk, who is a member of the House Administration Committee.

The Jan. 6 committee proposed a voluntary meeting with Loudermilk for next week.
===============================================================
Imagine setting up a reconnaissance tour the day before to let individuals know which rooms were occupied by certain members of the house Actual footage and testimony that a GA House representative lied by stating HE never did such as thing. I guess HE thougth the video was secured by his people?

But hey as we speak all RED STATES are passing laws to literally strip your vote. Where is the STUPREME COURT on this? Salivating over stripping woman of their own body. Having coup attempts and trying to change the rules to allow them to get away with it.

To the 40 plus percent of Voters that believe the election was stolen it is mind boggling that not a SINGLE INDIVIDUAL can show any reason to claim this. Just ONE! We do have hundreds of hard provable evidence of obstruction, lying, cheating, treasonous behavior by TRUMP and all the supporting casts of GOP.

Heck like the impeachment hearings on Ukraine extortion the world knew he was guilty but preferred a mock trial instead. Knew he called state officials to FIX the vote count. I mean what the F is this country now? We allow the rich and powerful to take away our democracy to feed your own hate and paranoia? To feel good that your evil thoughts are now allowed to be justified?

January 6th committee and all the hearings in the world will prove once again HITLERS extermination plan was known by all and gave the thumbs up!

I find it funny that my worse nightmare posts some 5 years ago that were laughed at as if from a lunatic wasn't half as destructive as the actual facts now indicate. Never mind. Forget about the silly vote and who wins, what laws are passed, who is in control. As long as you can stay entertained. The most despot of despots knows that keeping the masses entertained is all that is needed.

[gdl]

If we end the day tomorrow in the black I throw in the towel and wait for clarity.
A 3 day rally and a subsequent 2 day drop wiping all that out and closing lower does not sit well with me as a bottom. Never saw such a bottom before. BUT the market is the final arbiter.

Anything other than another steep drop tomorrow and i lose all sense of direction.

Time line in my estimation is already up but here we are still near the absolute bottom. I had thought the closer we get to an ending pattern the more likely a washout event. Big day drops were right after big surges cancelling them out. No capitulation. Maybe in hindsight I can see a pattern. Till then i give up calling each move.

[gdl]

Here we go again. 3900 like Groundhog Day. Day 2 of 3 day slide. Orderly but we should break resistance tomorrow. Might also be bottom. Stop asking for 3500 and whatever market decides.

[gdl]

99.99999 percent of all investors were dead sure we started the rebound, bull bear and neutral. I myself kept switching my assumptions even as i bet for a crash. This will go down in history as one of the greatest fake out moves of all time. ONLY my stubborn gut feeling kept me in the game.

Let me clarify. this will ONLY go down in history if we continue to break below the lows at 3840.

In any event the real lows will be seen this week and it might have already been seen.

What all investors want is a spring board announcing the stretched bottom and snap back rally.. the more dramatic the drop the bigger and faster the snap back. So for betting purposes you can miss out on the drop but easily catch the rebound. Better to have a one day event catching all by surprise and breaking thru assumed support levels and even missing placing a bet simply because the rebound becomes more focused and assured.

[gdl]

if anyone is interested if we get a 3 day drop the lows should be around 3700.
If only a 2 day drop it can actually be deeper because of a hard to catch capitulation crash.

I would be placing high odds that 3700 is the minimum on this current drop.

I put my hat out to Pretzel Logic who saw this possibility develop while 99% of all analysts were dead sure we already saw the bottom. I myself was very conflicted and kept betting for a deep drop at the wrong time. This one I captured, so far.

I wonder how the 10 year note keeps holding onto the below 3% mark as investors seem to plunge into bonds when stocks fall apart. This is the dilemma for investors. Rushing to the exits even when the exits seem blocked. At some point both stocks and bonds will get crushed together. How the explosive economic activity today doesn't force yields to jump higher is perplexing. Tomorrow will test the yields once again as I am sure resale house numbers will exceed their most optimistic targets.

Be mindful that they come out at 10 AM, after trading starts.
===============================================================

IF we have a real crash scenario tomorrow it actually becomes easier to make money in the immediate future. We should see a 1200 point SPX shot to the moon right after in around 11 trading days. The milestone target and duration is just a rough guestimate. BUT it should be short and powerful.

[gdl]

Tired, so so so tired. Tried many times to catch a real deep drop and this just might finally be it. I have never seen a one day drop in this scenario before and it almost always has dropped 2 or more days and always deeper than day ones decline. That means a drop over 165 is left and possibly to 3500. Is it a two day or three day drop?

I have been wrong recently on the pattern i see so perhaps we don't drop a dime more? I find it comforting to call todays move almost exactly. Now the hard part, breaking 3900 decisively and all by tomorrow.

[gdl]

Million dollar question. Will 3900 be the support level as in the past or will we slice threw it. Do or die tomorrow. If we break it should be the final lows for a while. 3700 - 3500 range is my best guess. But I sang this song before.

[gdl]

Frustrating moves. I lost multiple bets thinking the continuation of the slide was here. then the 3 day rebound. if today stays near the lows of the day count on tomorrow to be worse. The resale home numbers should be really explosive based on the fact that we ow have a new record on turnover from listing a home to purchasing it. That implies there is a huge number of available homes being swallowed up. The data comes out at 10:00 tomorrow. Interesting to see what happens at open and a half hour after. Might want to bet before the data comes out if you are a gambling person.

Capitulation day tomorrow? I gave up trying to figure that out.

[gdl]

Just as a strong 3 day rebound after a long down channel is common the same holds for each wave down. Start of wave down (if we are seeing one today) usually has most of the damage done in 3 day window. If we are continuing down by Friday most of the damage should be seen.

Since today's data pre-market has caused this type of immediate response i can only assume a stronger reaction tomorrow off the resales numbers. I hesitantly will be betting the next 3 day move.

I can't see a definitive pattern on the charts but I have lost money recently insisting a washout event take place. Maybe this is it? No conviction but trusting my gut.

[gdl]

Pre-market: Didn't take earnings and Home sales well.

If this is the start of a rally it sure is the weakest 4 day move ever. Usually the first 3 day off a long drop results in a powerful move before any weakness is seen.

I keep harping on the notion that we need to breakdown before we breakout of down channel. .10 year yield back at 3%. Tomorrow when the explosive resale of homes comes out I expect a big jump in 10 year yields. it has been trailing the data for a long time refusing to accept the inflation data.

The data is telling me the street is not prepared with prices still too high but the candlestick patterns have kept the drop to a minimum. Everyone sees the charts and visually we have a 5 wave drop right here. All are assuming a rally is on hand. BUT "I" have never seen the start of a trend change look so weak.

A 7th wave fast deep drop soon? Been expecting it and 4000 hold up well. If we do breakdown 3500 is likely bottom.

[gdl]

Mullin legislation would expunge Trump Jan. 6 impeachment - news Article

Mullin, a former mixed martial arts fighter, leaped into action to barricade doors to the House chamber during the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, making his move to erase Trump’s impeachment after the attack particularly notable.

This on the same day another news article is seen. "Trump appointed State Department official met with election deniers on January 6".... and also this
"Justice Dept. Is Said to Request Transcripts From Jan. 6 Committee".

In 2 years time the whole nonsense about an incompetent corrupt treasonous dictator will be expunged from our minds as the GOP take total control of all 3 branches of government. The silent coup. Imagine they do this openly and get cheered for it. Like breaking into jail to free Bonnie and Clyde, or Baby face.

Now i ask you is this a rational response by the masses? Strongly the answer is absolutely! Hitler had his fans and even became MORE popular as he enforced his state mandate to purge the country of impure citizens. NY only riots in Civil War over conscription and when they realized the wealthy were untouchable they hung a dozen free blacks on lamp posts.

By extension markets are run and influenced by humans. We have proven many times just how irrational we are. The current mandate of the FED is to "expunge" the wealth affect by plunging the stock market and tame the greedy excesses from individuals using cheap loans .