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Sizzling hot economy and in April. no sign of slowdown. FED has to fight the excesses in stock market and economy. Housing both new homes and resales will hit the street tomorrow and Thursday. New Homes constrained on raw material and costs. Resale is as hot as it ever was. Tomorrow at 8:30 new homes which is anyone's guess. Thursday resales will exceed the most optimistic expectations given the latest news that there is only a 15 day period where it is on the market a new record.
Watch the 10 year note finally breakout in a big way. If it doesn't hit and exceed 3.24% i would be very surprised.
Market rebounds can happen any time and in any circumstance as long as the investor thinks the market is priced right. Was this only a 3 day rebound? Next 2 days will tell the tale. Good or bad Fed data on housing should be taken in stride if the market is to sustain this upside move.
Watch for the 8:30 report on new homes. Then see if the after market reacts and by how much. Also watch to see if the 10 year yield gest hit in that same period.
Action today went higher than thought nor betting till I see weakness.
Kathy Barnette a GOP PA Senate candidate is surging in polls. She is NOT endorsed by trump but is the most Trumpian candidate in the field. She was at the January 6th MARCH! Not sure if she was also in the Capital Building.
Seems the coup attempt is really a failed Patriotic Day revisited. Seems the VOTERS overwhelmingly believe TRUMP WON despite his ability to muster all his power and command to find any agency, any state official, any judge to confirm this mystery win. We AMERICANS don't give a shit what the truth is as long as we take back WHITE AMERICA from the illegals.
if anyone wants to know the future this is easier than figuring out the stock market.
I am conflicted on wave count and the ability of this market to start a rebound (if this is the start) without a washout event and without breaking below the 3900 mark even if for only one day.
I am just as perplexed how the 10 year yield can stay below 3.24%.
The data today was an eye opener. A 1% rise in retail sales in April? We already know based on reports that May 8th saw the fastest rate of purchase of homes blowing away the prior record to just 15 days on the market. Tomorrow and Thursday shows new home sales and existing sales. IF it is as bad as i suspect the 10 year yield should JUMP hitting or surpassing 3.24%. I also think the Dollar should breakout above 105 and OIL break above 115.
Seems the pandemic bailouts did more to fuel the inflation spike than intended. People have not curtailed their spending yet. Not deferred their vacation plans,. Not changed their spending habits other than change food purchases from the very expensive to alternatives. The April retail sales show exactly why the FED is panicking to get inflation under control. Makes sense that they will drain the excesses by allowing the market to fall and housing bubble to crash. It worked before.
The data this week will show all inflation related segments of this economy and i suspect it will spike higher and test this rally. I just read that housing sales in the May 8th week sold at the fastest pace ever!, in 15 days. This as mortgage rates are rising fast. I suspect people are rushing to buy knowing rates will keep rising.
the big laggard is 10 year yields. I will be watching that carefully. it should explode past 3.24 and very quickly. I have been expecting this for a long time and am perplexed why it stays so low.
I might take one more stab at a fast drop tomorrow since all the inflation data will be released this week testing the ability of the street to ignore the implications. On the fence now but will decide before close today.
Looking at the Dollar, Oil, 10 year yields and the strong consolidation at very high levels it is only a matter of time before they all breakout in a BIG way. Dollar should hit 110 once it starts the move. Oil can hit as high as 142 and the laggard 10 year should have already seen a hit above 3.24. Instead it is at 2.92. How that one asset class stays this low is mind boggling given the consumer is spending at a high pace, unemployment at 40 year lows.
Can we actually start a rally from these levels? I strongly assumed that in order to change the mindset of investors to bullish they needed a spark, incentive. that would have been bargain basement prices. A purge, or capitulation drop. This is too damn orderly.
A close higher today sets up limited options to stay a Bear. Tomorrow not only has to be a downer it has to drop to 3900 at a minimum. That seems unlikely unless the consolidated asset classes breakout in a big way.
It appears i was very wrong. this seem to have been the lows at 3900. Based and now a rally till first week in June.
I had hoped for a more dramatic drop and dramatic rebound. Not to be. Target is the same 4725 area. Retail Sales very strong putting a guarantee the FED raises rates aggressively. BUT for now the street ignores reality.
I was told the FED want to have a major correction in stocks to wash out the excess disposable income and allow for inflation to get tamed. Dangerous game if true.
I misread this wave. A solid rally today nullifies my assumption for one more drop.
As in all analysis there is no sure thing and there is an outside chance this is just a 3 day reversal. Today seems a given, up. If tomorrow also is up I would declare victory for the BULL.
Max pain is 420, maybe some op ex shenanigans due
While day 8 was down we must see a slide over next 2 days breaking 3900 or this current drop is over. The mountains of bad news keeps piling up with OIL and China economy yet the market seems to indicate it has for now found a base at SPX 4000.
I suspect more bad news in on the horizon but at some point it becomes factored in. At 4000 on SPX that seems too high.
There is a ton of daily bullish candlestick patterns developed over last 3 days. Is it enough to have a sustained rally? Tomorrow might give a better answer.
Since Monday was a slow draw down tomorrow has to show a 120 plus drop within the first 2 hours of trading in order for me to maintain my bearish immediate outlook.
Day 8. Down and confirm now at least 2 more down days. No end in sight for bottom yet. Strange.
Obviously wrong on start of day. Huge number of bullish candlestick posterns has allowed this hovering at flat.
Either breakout no later than 12:30 or start a nasty slide. ALL it has to do is break above 4030 for a sign tht we are going to rally hard.
ALSO see a wedge pattern and a tight smaller channel that must break 4030 soon.
Chinas economic contraction is yet another unexpected data point.
The combination of our inflation spike and their deceleration is a hard sell for the intermediate future of our mutual economies. The world markets are not going to like this one bit.
Lets see if day 8 is a downer or not. My likely target for a minimum drop has not changed.
The strange exchange between Putin and Finland's president on NATO was a "calm and cool" response? This as One Third of Russia's army is destroyed.
The world is getting more bizarre and the combination of "Being There" and "Dr. Strangelove" comes to mind.
Speaking of "intimidating individuals"...
Speaking of unconstitutional acts...
I'm sure you're referring to this madness.
https://dailycaller.com/2022/05/13/kiel-school-district-sues-sexual-harassment-wrong-pronouns/
All in all, it comes back to what's become obvious...
The leftists who come up with this feces usually are full of displaced anger... Usually have low self esteem... Usually are really messed up psychologically.
It's obvious they're compensating... They think by "going the extra mile" with the pronoun madness, and other items, that they are proving how great of an individual they are, when in actuality, they know how incomplete and scattered their existence is.
They are brainwashed soldiers, who think 75% of the nation thinks like them...
When actually, it's about 5%... And the nation IS SICK AND TIRED of their nonsense.
If rumors are true that Putin has serious health issues the current humiliating events might only embolden him to go out with a bang. Finland will be an important test.
Putin knows his current catastrophic decisions will hurt his popularity if sanctions deteriorate the countries economic conditions. His inner circle might take drastic measures against him. His legacy will be lost. Desperate despots can and will do desperate things knowing that their end justifies taking the world with him.
I kid you ot. Put yourself in his position and mindset. A man with unlimited power flaunting it against the world as he poisons negotiators and diplomats, takes territory on the most flimsy of reasons, influenced world political elections, held OIL as hostage, makes public blatant lies not caring how it gets interpreted.
the ONE THING he will never tolerate is being HUMILIATED! Being exposed as a buffoon with low intelligence and cunning.
Will he now give up his diseased body for a chance to take out all his opponents even if it means destroying his own nation? If YOU were him and in bad health what action would YOU take?
Biggest event in our HISTOY will be June hearings. I mean the biggest event by far since our Republic was established. Brash statement? Not on your life!
The 8 day event will trigger the biggest retaliation and destruction of our democracy like nothing else can. We already have States passing unconstitutional rules and regulations, intimidating individuals and corporations to bend to their will, blatantly enacting Jim Crow laws, strengthening police ability to suppress minorities, declaring war on non white non Christian citizens.
You don't present the KKK with live video of a lynching and expect them to be shamed. instead they will be furious and attack those that dare to call them out on morality issues. To them it is a moral imperative. the south defended with their blood the right to enslave inferior humans for their thriving business. The Supreme Court solidified their moral and legal rights to do so.
The Civil War is raging today and this time around revenge and retribution will be brutal and swift as the RED STATES win back the Union. The stakes are that high and the voters KNOW this. Lets not keep pretending new revelations of immoral destructive behavior will change this.
I know with certainty that this nation and it's experimental political system has found where the faults lie and those have already destroyed it's foundation. We are already NO MORE! Like watching the pandemic mass deniers pretend the stock market has absorbed the news. We have the greatest capacity to rationalize the irrational, replace alarm with complacency, and inhuman horrific acts as if gods hand guides you.
I "SEE" the future and we will be remembered in history books as the most corrupt destructive annalists cheering on Gods wrath to destroy the wicked but unable to comprehend you rail against yourself. Fanatical Fervor for religious justification of evil intent.
A decade of posting such alarmist radical suppositions are met today in the same fashion as they did then. the tsunami number of abnormal destructive events and historical facts between then and now should in a "normal" rational mind be as alarmed as I. Instead the populace invited in what occurred thankful that God was allowed to be reborn and resurrected. The definition of the Anti-Christ..
Russia lost 1/3 of its ground forces in Ukraine!
Finland applying for NATO membership!
Dollar shows no sign of reversing!
A 6 day drop to end this whole wave structure seems unlikely and that means we have not reached the bottom of this drop yet. From march 29th we had a 13 day drop, rebound, 8 day drop, rebound and so far a 6 day drop before this current rebound. While the SPX value loss fits nicely with the last 2 drops the timeframe is way off.
I also question the ability of this market to hold a channel so well even at the end of the down cycle. Still looking for a breakdown day. I will concede that time is running out for a decent 3 week rebound.
DOLLAR has Broken OUT! It blew past the 103 mark like butter.
IMPLICATIONS: Deflationary? Inflation with a strong dollar? Something is wrong.
Debt in US Dollars as we add inflation spike is a collapse coming.
Dollar at 104.5 and top is assumed to be 114.
Inflation has no end in sight yet the dollar will squeeze debt to a limit.
the DOLLAR squeeze? It should jump fast. When it does the stock market will flip out.
Recent pattern recognition is very recognizable and using it to bet Mondays move.
A 6 day drop is not likely a finishing pattern. Only One sub-wave not seen before.
My only concern is that the 8th day is NOT the finishing drop in which case it can take 10 or even 13 days to complete. BUT in almost all cases the next day after a spike like this resulted in a lower bottom and a likely retest of the absolute lows at 3860.
So I am assuming a down day Monday and a retest of 3860. If day 8 also happens to be the final lows of this years long drop we could actually see a much bigger move Monday.to as low as 3500.
I am making a lot of assumptions here and will know if completely wrong on Monday.
Putin threatened Finland and Sweden if they join NATO, Trump once again wants to WITHHOLD funding for Ukraine, Five sitting House GOP members subpoenaed over the January 6th coup attempt that they themselves either cursed or helped with.
Just your normal Banana Republic News. This as Pence is indorsing someone against Trumps pick in Georgia, Texas Supreme Court makes it legal to go after families that treat transgender children, Woman's rights have already been abolished thanks to Alito's justification thru need to populate our country any means necessary. As the Uncle Tom Supreme Court has a wife that attempted a coup.
GOP going after children to make sure they grow up like their parents. Bigoted, paranoid, delusional, but pushing singularly the White Supremacy theme.
This nation is so F'ed. I am contemplating where to move. Any suggestions?
Normally I would consider this rally the start of a 3 week rebound but for three things.
One - The bottom of this wave ended on day 6 and all the other bottoms so far were Fibonacci numbers.
Two - While 3900 was my preferred choice a long while ago it is only a temporary marker for Elliot Wave and 3500 has been the target based on Pretzel Logic.
Three - Starting a 3 week rebound without breaking the channel first is unusual.
I expect Monday to be significantly down, over 150 SPX points (IF) my theory is right.
This is a long shot argument and bet.
This move mimics the wave down from 4/19 to 4/28. I expect a minimum of 3880 on Monday. ODDS that this day marks the start of a rally is small IMO. Another drop is needed at a minimum.
I will be betting for a 150 plus drop on Monday.
PUTIN, not a peep. Norway fast tracked into NATO this week. This last leg down is steep and should be short, hopefully Monday is the 8th and final before a big spike move after lasting many days.
I got out today midway in range. Not the best at determining where that bottom was going to be. If tomorrow turns out as expected I will be more comfortable with a Monday deep drop.
BTW I still believe the last day of this wave should exceed the channel boundaries. If Monday is that last day anywhere below 3800 is expected. No idea if 150 point drop or 500.
Hit bottom of channel and I expect a decent spike move tomorrow. I think it will ONLY be one day move. hoping it can reach 3990 area.
Will NOT be playing tomorrows move. It will be a setup for Monday (IF) the day turns out the way i expect. Tomorrow is day 7 of recent slide. Fibonacci numbers have been right on in determining bottoms. I expect day 8 (Monday) to be that bottom. That means at a minimum it should exceed the lows set today.
If we end Friday on a decent move up I will be betting for Monday (ONLY). I can't see much farther out. if Monday is a big drop that makes it easier to project. till then i leave my options open.
BITCOIN already broke. Dollar about to go above 104 which is crazy. OIL, well it will be high for a while to come. 10 year yield sinks because of flight from stocks. It will be FORCED to get back to 3.2% at a minimum soon.
Hit bottom of channel. Now to top? Can’t believe this goes on till 6/6. Spooky 6/6/2022 or 6/6/6. How apropos
Using the long term weekly chart the drops so far hit Fibonacci numbers exactly.
From 12/17 to 3/7, a 10 week drop.
From 3/7 to 3/28 a 3 week rebound.
From 3/28 to 6/6 (?) a 10 week drop?
if true we continue on the down channel for 17 more days?
If this hold true it seems unlikely we have a deep drop from here. More likely staying in the upper and lower channel.
If we do break down then my current theory is shot.
Bounced off 40 drop twice and i exited my 3900 made money but overall in last 2 weeks lost 5,000.
This is staying inb a defined drop. I see another 3 weeks as a possible continuation as the upper and lower channel keeps it in bounds.
I am amazed at the total controlled drop. no panic, no concerns. All think this is just a correction as in the early 80's.
Will be placing best over next 3 weeks on upper and lower channel being hit.
The battle is won or lost TODAY!
So far every drop was followed by an easy rebound. Every Fibonacci number is tested and bounces off of.
We should know before day is out if this is the bottom. Rallying on bad news is a great indication. Looks like 3900 was it!
I saw 3900 as the initial target at beginning of year. Using Pretzel Logic Analysis they have as low as 3500. If I played it safe with smaller expectations on the drops i would be doing well. Not my betting style and it hurts.
As for PPI and VIX it seems everything is heightened but controlled. Even the days that drop 2% it does so in an orderly fashion for the most part.
I also thought PUTIN might have a forceful decision on market volatility but so far he is tame and lame in response. Sweden and Finland might actually be invited to NATO this week! Yet so far Putin has only threatened action with no bite.
MY timeline for this drop is about over. in fact I thought 4 months was the limit. Having another wave up lasting say a month usually has a catalyst. Exhaustion from the 5 month drop should not be much of a catalyst. Expected fear, fright, and then greed to take its place in this market.
Back to the drawing board.
Sorry I thought 3900 was one of your targets. I'm primarily watching and looking for the same thing you are with less energy expended. Do you have any thoughts on the why the VIX seems stuck in a volatile and yet not capitulatory range? Tomorrow's PPI may shed some light.
Cheers.
Money? NOPE! I have been playing for fast deep drop and so far I roll my bets over with losses each time. I am about to give up on expecting a one day purge. The timeline suggests we are due for a nice rebound and the price target for my drop keeps getting closer without the need to crash.
I originally thought 3700 and as low as 3500. Given the current 3900 that is not much of a one day crash is it?
PPI news tomorrow before open. if it elicits the same response as todays CPI I will assume market has absorbed the news already.
Kudos GDL - Congrats. Hope you made some big bucks on your bets. The VIX is behaving oddly though and not signaling anything definite.
Not talking about final collapse. I am talking about the First drop followed by a huge one month rally. Elliot Wave structure looks for this and has in fact predicted this fall.
Usually a drop like this lasting 5 months should have a capitulation drop to flush out the bear and allow for a resurgence.
I never thought of this as the final one stage drop. it usually takes 3 or more waves to turn investors off. January on is one big wave with no decent rebound at all. We should have a one month rally before the real drop occurs. Scary to think if this is just wave one what will wave three look like.
Perhaps wave ONE is this defined 5 month channel that ends with exhaustion instead of capitulation. I know i am exhausted waiting for it to end.
I don’t think the start of the final collapse happens until fall.
Tomorrow is my last day waiting for this channel to break.
If the market keeps absorbing 80's style inflation with an orderly drop I will hold off betting. My style requires fast moves. If PPI tomorrow doesn't shake it up I exit.
Sneaky market action. My crazy bets got even crazier. I thought I rolled over my 3900 SPX bets. Instead I added bets for Friday.
Realized just now I have both today and Friday bets.
Tomorrow data gets added pain with the PPI reports. It should be higher than current CPI because manufacturers get hit first before passing on costs to consumers.
Start of slide late today followed by slide tomorrow?
Switching gears. If we close higher I will assume the next 3 days is down just like the last 3 day drop. BUT I will not bet the homerun only what I can see holding onto the lower channel.
At this pace the drop can last another 2 to 3 months. Not seen for a very long time. Four month bear has been the exception and the longest in a while. Going on number FIVE!
The Fed Data coming out daily will be relentless and tell a story of an 80's style inflation. This during a long drawn out war, pandemic fanatical shut down in China, wages accelerating as the JOLTS report will show there are no qualified workers to fill some positions, some 11 MILLION!
Completely lost the ending scenario. We are still in the channel and no signs that we break out on either side. For now any rally should be seen as a reprieve for the relentless drop.
Since this current wave only has one upside day, yesterday and possibly today it would show a wave 2 mini-wave and we never complete the drop without minimum of 3 waves, even on the smaller scale. BUT it will be in the same variety as the prior drops.100 SPX is the likely maximum drop to expect on any given day.
I have to start playing the smaller gains and not look for the elusive crash scenario.
MY best guess is a close higher today just sets up for another drop of perhaps 100 SPX points. This market refuses to panic.
Still in the very defined channel. No sign of a reversal and no sign of a breakdown or breakout from that channel.
Every single drop, even those that were over 2% on the day has been very controlled and orderly. Since this move started in the beginning of the year you would have thought by now a final capitulation style end would be here. Five months in and we see no difference between the start of the realization of a trend change till now even with startling inflation data. Perhaps one of the longest defined channels without breaking.
This is my White Flag! I surrender to a steady market and must adjust to that till we do breakout or down.
How i would play off todays move. If we manage to hold up today despite the CPI report, meaning a drop of 50 points on SPX or less by close I would throw in the white towel and look for a counter trend rally and the next one should be BIG!
If we manage to close positive the rally has started.
If we manage to close lower but not much beyond 150 points, to say 3850 I would conclude there is no conclusion to this drop. I would only say that the controlled nature so far held and the market is NOT telegraphing where the bottom is.
CPI - market move Before report Plus 45, after Minus 25.
Not a big jump so far. Inflation is surging no matter how they slice it.
I don't believe we get a shallow move today. As suggesting in pre-market move.
Might add more PUTS at start of trading. The calm reaction at 8:45 either tells me pre-market manipulation is alive and well or that the end of this down trend is about here. If we are to have a deep drop or even a decent one the day must start lower and continue to build pressure down with no let up.
Great example of FUNDAMENTAL VS Technical. The Technical was mixed with a lot of bullish candlestick patterns and a positive close yesterday. Pre-market was decidedly up before the data. Me, I saw the technical picture differently and the only thing i concluded is the end of this current trend looked about here. With or without a crash style ending. In my analysis i always assumed a crash for weeks now. It will be determined TODAY!
As we speak 5 minutes went by and the futures keep sliding, now Minus 45.
MY DEAD CANARY - Bitcoin down in pre-market over 8% at 29,000. It should base at 18,000 at first.
Small up move today suggests a slide tomorrow. CPI at 8:30 AM tomorrow. Pre-market action before open should give you an idea how much impact the CPI data had.
Still looking for a minimum of 150 point drop on SPX. I doubt we can have a decent start and finish deep down. There should be no surprises to Wednesdays move.
I have been lucky so far that most of my assumptions on this drop worked out. If tomorrow breaks trend don't shoot the messenger. Please also BET your style and don't follow my action.
Good Luck.
Small change on $NYMO, so is tomorrows CPI reaction like a Fed day via 3 moves or just a directional pull\push?
I picked up Amazon 2300 calls this week I expect them to pull some BS
Since the move was shallow but up I do not expect a crash but perhaps 150 SPX point slide. This is MY personal opinion only based on recent past moves.
8:30 on the market should react to the CPI reports. I base the whole days action on pre market move. Once again this is my betting premise.
Rambling rants and thoughts that pop up.
Market is behaving miraculously well. i mean rational to a fault. the long drop is organized and in a sharply defined channel. This regardless of the shockingly accelerated inflation data points we receive. It is reminiscent of the first drop where most investors and analysts are conditioned to view everything in short term basis.
BUT I still question the ability of the wave at this juncture to maintain it's composure at the bottom of the trough. Usually we have spike moves to firmly establish a bottom before resuming the move up. If tomorrow is NOT capitulation than it seems we could be having a slow drip all the way down form months. Now that seems odd based on prior first secular move down in the past.
For NOW draw a ruler across the top and bottom channels and you can play this game till it breaks.
I always worry that the pattern i see can change and I try to anticipate how the mistake will go. This 4 day drop (if we close down today) is susceptible to a sharp relief rally DESPITE my assumption to the contrary. WATCH the reaction off the 8:30 CPI reports Wednesday. In this instance the days start should dictate the rest of days move UNLIKE today.
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Another anxious time is more long lasting and insidious in it's implication. Talking our republic for which it falls. Just when you thought it couldn't get worse it does. We have an absolutely easy no way you lose bet. The RED States are even more rabid in their quest to rehire TRUMP and anyone emulating his manners and philosophy.
The public trial will ANGER the Trump loyalists and provide the finishing touches to our dismantled constitution. Seems everyone is taking a page from TRUMP on how to succeed in political without trying. Just use hate anger and paranoia as your policies and make sure they find scapegoats to place the blame as they rape this system dry. Imagine people like Ted Cruz who actually stuck it to his own state constituents when he took a vacation from the once in a lifetime frozen heating
system. The people only seemed mildly upset that he left his dog at home.
I can never understand how common sense, logic, and a bit of analysis can be thrown away for pure emotional release of angst. Even if it means more pain and suffering in the longer run. But hey I can't understand this market timing either. The fundamental evidence was glaring to the eye and you had to look away in order to continue betting for a happy market future. But like the political arena and the KNOWN path we are heading for this MARKET is in the same position. I am talking a decade from now BOTH will be in deep shit.
I know absolutely NO ONE wants my views on politics. I try to explain it is not on politics but only when you experience the moment of realization will you accept my premise.
My observation from 30 years watching markets.
TODAY, if it closes positive but shallow we should see an ending drop soon with a slide tomorrow of 150 or so points at most.
TODAY, if we close lower but shallow a crash is more likely tomorrow with up to 400 point drop.
Seems when the market can't seem to hold onto a rally after such a deep drop it usually means the PPT has trouble holding back the last surge down. OR forget about my paranoia in thinking this market is manipulated it can just mean market has no ability to rally yet and any bad news compounds the slide.
I am rooting for a shallow drop by end of day. if the last 2 hours turns into a rout i will not be upset either.
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The controlled nature of this whole slide would be unusual if it actually bases without an out of control drop at the end. Keep looking for it and time is running out IMO. that is why I am so adamant it is now or never. this wave down is clearly the 5th wave.
Sold too soon it seems. Rebought at 8 same 30 PUTS 3900.
While it is unlikely to snowball into a crash i have to be in it now.
Even with this slide I doubt we end day in RED but because t dropped so much so fast I had to reenter to be sure. Sold too soon. My story.
Selling my 3900 PUTS soon. Will buy in again right before the close.
I believe the close today will be shallow on the upside but I will be betting for a deep drop tomorrow so i need to get in at best price based on time deterioration.
Sold at 5$ loss of 18,000
Will be buying back at close unless we have a run-a-way rally which seems unlikely.
Still betting just for tomorrow. Pattern on these down waves have never seen a completion without a minimum of 3 waves. this move is only wave 2. That does not guarantee however that tomorrow is the continuation of down move. I don't believe we can have a 2 up day after such a 3 day drop. Playing the odds.
I think Thursday starts to drop again
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