Alternative Reality

[gdl]

Trying to wrap my head on this pattern.

Start with the timeframe of the January swoon till now.
10 week drop, 3 week rebound. Currently 8 weeks ending this coming Monday.

Using that scale we come to 6/6/2022 as the final lows (3580?) That is 11 trading day from now. OR we could have just an 8 week low (ends on Monday) followed by a 10 day (2 week) rally to 6/6.

I am sticking to the assumption that 3580 is the final ,lows of this downturn. Also see 6/6 as some major turn day. If Monday is crash day, which now seems a long shot a 2 week spike up till 6/6 is logical. If Monday hold up than 6/6 seems more likely the bottom.

The market has conditioned all to see intra-day moves as sharp reversals and bet accordingly. Very hard and not logical now to hold out for many days.

I also know that the 3900 - 3870 lows broke today so it will break below 3870 at some point soon.

BUT betting the pattern is impossible with so many different patterns and intra-day moves. I have switched to one day bets trying to catch the trend and pick when that trend reversed. Sloppy trading for me but it keeps me in the game for when the bottom falls out.

Assuming 6/6 is important we are running out of time for the 3580 target to hit early next week. If it does than a 2 week big rally still holds water. If we don't drop by Wednesday to 3580 6/6 seems likely the peak or crash day.

Talking this out with many different scenarios. Can't determine which way we go. Hope Monday gives clarity.