The decisions behind a continued bear drop.
The rally started at 1 PM not after 2:30 which usually gives better odds of long term directional changes. Suspect.
The latest support level was breached at went to as low as 3800 indicating a failed bottom. Suspect.
A MONDAY close that is NOT strong and not in positive territory spells the immediate future is fast down. never seen an ending of such a deep move down without multiple days of decisive upside swings.
The length of this drop, 11 days, is within the other wave timeline but must end within days (if it didn't already end). This makes MONDAY critical. A failed rally pushes the timeline for the drop to end and therefore hit the bottom target that much sooner. Either a reversal is already here or a crash becomes more likely.
The rally Monday MUST be decisive and sustainable thru the whole day. A move of over 50 SPX points at a minimum. In no more than 3 days (close of Wednesday) it has to break above 4150. To be determined.
4130 is needed to overlap the prior wave negating a 5th extended wave structure.
So while there are reasons for both scenarios to hold my (GUT) tells me this was not (yet) a decisive bounce and only recovered from the latest breach at 3840. My wait to determine if this is an extended 5th wave or not becomes more lopsided on Monday. Even a positive start above 30 SPX points suggests the bear might have ended. A 3 day drive above 4130 makes it definitive for me the bear is over.
Since the drop, 11 days, and subsequent slightly up Friday makes the timeline within the past wave moves. A drop on Monday makes 13 days the tie for longest since this structure was developed. That's why I see only a deep drop on Monday as opposed to continuation of bear. Makes my decision and bet that much easier.
If Monday starts (normal) in a continuation of bull ONLY a major reversal mid-day would change that BULLISH stance. If Monday starts with pressure down i will assume a crash is elevated to over 50% odds.
