Happy New Year Yanik and you have a MAJOR BINGO with this conclusion! This very simple statement is what so many people cannot, will not and just fail to understand, even though they tell you they get it. For them to question this very simple reasoning shows they DO NOT get it!
And to use up the 6 billion in NOL's in 30 years, (28 yrs now) the company would have to have about 615 million in Profits on average per year. How much would a company be valued with a P/E of 10?........try about $6.15 Billion...... Now divide that by 300 million shares (after KKR investment) and you get about $20 a share...... So if the company was able to generate even more profit and were able to use the NOL , then the stock price would be higher.....
however - this shell with an NOL and no business plan - is a case where the value of the NOL now visible as being captured is the first way to value it
lets see who they merge with and how etc
remember a company merging or being bought that has earnings will not come free to WMIH (that is one of the 30% discounts to the NPV of the tax savings - the "transaction" cost)