Sterling, without doubt MRIB is very undervalued at this level no matter how we look at it.
Marani CEO stated that shipments will start in 2014, so it gives me an indication that she is waiting to execute the remaining contracts to account for all 20,000 cases per month, and once those are firm, announcements will come with disclosures naming the identities of future partners. I am guessing that we will hear from MRIB on this within the end of 2013.
Although I don't disagree with your valuation as outlined--after all, we are still working on assumptions--I look at these contracts in a slightly different light because they are term based. I look at how MRIB would be valued by another firm in the event of an acquisition, and how the contracts on a fully executed, 5 years term base would be treated.
If MRIB were able to secure 5 year contracts for 20,000 cases per month for shipments to commence in 2014, the correct valuation for MRIB is $1,82 per share at 1x revenue to an acquiring companywith all debt accounted for.
That these contracts become fully executable by a third party acquiring MRIB, the valuation to give for 20,000 cases per month is $115MM at 1x revenue +/- slight adjustments for discounted cash. $115MM is the acquisition price of MRIB with these contracts fully executed and if MRIB were to be acquired in other words.
MRIB is the stock to own and hold.