Replies to post #7401 on Rambus (RMBS)

[calbiker]

smd-

FWIW, I'm at 80% on this issue (80% chance Whyte turns down Hynix on new trial AND request for appeal).

Even as to the 20% remaining, I'd say there's a
50% chance Whyte allows the appeal and goes ahead w/ phase 2 while the appeal is pending.

If Whyte lets Hynix ask CAFC I'd say there's an 80% chance CAFC refuses to hear the appeal.

Any appeal like this is a 4 to 6 month process AT MAXIMUM, if CAFC agrees to hear it.

First we'll calculate without the newly introduced 50% chance Whyte allows the appeal and goes ahead w/ phase 2 while the appeal is pending. You changed the CAFC delay to hear case to 6 months max, so I'll reduce S2.2 from 0.8 to 0.6.

Selling pressure = P1*S1 + P2*(P2.1*S2.1 + P2.2*S2.2)
Selling pressure = 0.8*0 + 0.2*(0.8*0.4 + 0.2*0.6)
Selling pressure = 0.09

In this scenario we can expect a 9% drop in price.

Now if Whyte allows phase 2 to continue while appeal takes place then:

Selling pressure = 50% * 9% = 4.5%

Hope that makes you happy. ;-)