Monday, January 23, 2006 10:24:51 PM
FWIW, I'm at 80% on this issue (80% chance Whyte turns down Hynix on new trial AND request for appeal).
Even as to the 20% remaining, I'd say there's a
50% chance Whyte allows the appeal and goes ahead w/ phase 2 while the appeal is pending.
If Whyte lets Hynix ask CAFC I'd say there's an 80% chance CAFC refuses to hear the appeal.
Any appeal like this is a 4 to 6 month process AT MAXIMUM, if CAFC agrees to hear it.
First we'll calculate without the newly introduced 50% chance Whyte allows the appeal and goes ahead w/ phase 2 while the appeal is pending. You changed the CAFC delay to hear case to 6 months max, so I'll reduce S2.2 from 0.8 to 0.6.
Selling pressure = P1*S1 + P2*(P2.1*S2.1 + P2.2*S2.2)
Selling pressure = 0.8*0 + 0.2*(0.8*0.4 + 0.2*0.6)
Selling pressure = 0.09
In this scenario we can expect a 9% drop in price.
Now if Whyte allows phase 2 to continue while appeal takes place then:
Selling pressure = 50% * 9% = 4.5%
Hope that makes you happy.
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