2. Whyte grants appeal. P2 = 60%
Why would Whyte grant this appeal? Hynix is not presenting new information or pointing out flaws in Whyte's interpretation of the law - they are whining that Payne's view is different. What reasonable judge would agree to an appeal after having have allowed months of discovery, hearings, motions, and bullcrap in their court and then issuing a strong, well-reasoned opinion? Payne did none of the above. Whyte was well aware of Payne's opinon of Rambus before he issued his ruling - why should Hynix's hail mary change his opinon now?
Whyte had an opportunity to bow out and let Payne take over - before he did all this work. Why would he waste all that time only to change his mind now? I think the more reasonable probability is a 90% chance Whyte does not grant IA.
Payne didn't allow discovery into JRA, didn't allow new witnesses, didn't allow the DOJ evidence, only allowed Timony's biased FTC opinions. The biggest piece is that there was no written ruling from Payne. Hynix's IA holds no merit and has little chance of getting granted.