Replies to post #4464 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[grbnitz4002]

Why would you use 200 million shares?

[KCSVEN]

That's a pretty flawed analysis. I can use numbers and make things sound anyway I want also. Since Reliant BO was base don a market 10 times smaller than Vascepa's then 10 times the Reliant BO is totally reasonable.

They talk diluted shares but completely ignore inflation in the Reliant BO calculation.

GSK loses Lovaza in 2015 to generics, thus they lose 1 billion in revenue per year or 5 billion in revenue before Vascepa even remotely has a chance to have generics. They could buy AMRN for 5 Billion and worst case scenario they end up recovering the investment.

If Anchor can be sold at even double Marine they make profit, if REDUCE IT comes in they make a killing.

Comparing Lovaza to Vascepa because of the management ties and the fish oil similarities is what the amateurs like to do.

Drug A is and even at time of BO is
-Limited to 4 million people
-Has bad side effects for many people
-No studies show it prevents heart events

Drug B
-Has market potential of 80 million people
-Has almost zero side effects
-Has 1 Japanese study showing prevents Heart event

So who in their right mind compare Drug A to Drug B?

[linhdtu]

It all depends on the P/S the acquirer is willing to shell out.

The big unknown in the P/S ratio is the denominator. With time, the estimation of S will become more accurate and in the case of amrn, with Anchor potential mkt included, the potential for S can be big .

Take the case of Lipitor. You know the story right ? Pfe had the choice to acquire Lipitor for cheap early in the game but it decided not to. In the end it had to buy Lipitor at much higher price ( I actually don;t remember the price).

The same will happen here. The longer the acquirer waits, the clearer the trend for S is, the higher or lower the P/S will be.

[linhdtu]

If 12.5 is all she wrote,according to you, then if I were you I'll back up the truck below 7 where she is now.

Vascepa is much different from Lovaza. That is all I am going to say. It's your own duty to do DD and come up with your own conclusion.

[ggwpq]

according to amarin's most recent presentation, basic shares outstanding is 150MM, 170MM fully diluted. Don't believe YMB, obviously short seller spreading lies.