sts66, so called "opportunity costs" can only be determined in hindsight or in retrospect.
I'll make a friendly wager with you. Let's assume you and I we both have 10K$ to invest. I would sink all of it into amrn at 7$ and change. So what is/are your opportunities if you are not burdened by amrn.
We'll revisit in a yr hence and compare. Loser donates 100$ to charity chosen by winner OK ?
As for your betting on pre P2/P3 data results, imo most retailers including myself don't have the education nor background to properly handicap the odds especially for cancer trials.
As for HFT firms from my DD, I believe they don't make directional bets especially risky ones in biotechs. They make their money scalping the bid/ask spreads of the order streams. Much safer and surer that way.
Hedge funds imo come in many flavors, profitable and non profitable. The profitable ones, if they ever make directional bets, cheat like SAC . You need to do some DD on Bloomberg about them . The other ones face a 50-50 odds like you and me
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