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Re: Nukemtiltheyglow post# 3831

Monday, 04/08/2013 1:50:18 PM

Monday, April 08, 2013 1:50:18 PM

Post# of 430303
I too have the patience to wait for the promised land, but I hope everyone realizes that sitting on a loss for months/years because of a depressed share price, whether it's deserved or not, does cost you money: the time value of money and lost opportunity costs. "Dead money" that could have been put to work elsewhere in the meantime, let alone the lost opportunity to have purchased many more shares at a lower price point, is a double whammy - we'll have to make a certain greater % than we otherwise would have had to earn to make up for those costs.

Unfortunately, like many folks here, despite averaging down as the pps dropped, I'm still 30% in the red, cannot bail and come back later, that would be foolish - and I'm near my max amount of money allowed in any one stock, so will not average down even more at these prices. The way things have turned out, I really don't expect to double or even triple my money here for 18+ months or longer. Not happy about it, but them's the breaks, like it or not.

And it's not like AMRN is being picked on or anything like that - look at the last few years of smallcap biotechs and the trends of their stock prices - "sell the news" is becoming the norm - most stocks have DROPPED after drug approvals, many by half or more, for a variety of reasons. I've known this for a while now, that the best way to make money in bios is to buy pre P2/P3 data releases, or pre-PDUFA, then sell into the frenzied runs, but I can't make myself do it knowing the potential of the drugs in the long run. It's a bad habit, similar to falling in love with a stock (if not identical to) - I know what I *should* be doing, but for some reason don't do it, perhaps thinking "this time it won't happen!", only to be proven wrong over and over.

Blame the HFT machines, shorts, and hedge funds if you wish, but playing their game is much more profitable than fighting them (tilting at wind mills). I do not short stocks, find it distasteful and anti-American, so I can't make money that way - but if I were smarter I could follow short trends to make buy/sell decisions, as in sell if short #'s are rising, buy as they drop, but then that turns into trading, another thing I don't like doing (most traders lose money).

Then there's the single biggest reason folks don't want to move in and out of bios - our (mis?)conception that we don't want to miss out on a big positive binary event - as stated above, those great PR's usually result in a DROP in share price after a brief burst upward, not the expected big sustained pop upwards (buyouts excluded, and if you bought AMRN expecting a quick buyout you're a trader IMHO).
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