Certainly if the market shared your views the stock wouldn't be at 0.47, it would be at 5.00 or more.
The market can be horribly inefficient with penny stocks. If you judge the value of an investment solely by the stock price you will never be a successful investor. That is one of the most common mistakes made by novice investors... the stock is going down, therefore there must be something wrong and I should sell. And the opposite... the stock is going up so good things must be happening and I should buy. And don't forget SeaSide is (and has been) putting artificial pressure on the stock that has nothing to do with fundamentals at the company. Tell me... the company is historically speaking in the best financial position it has been in with adequate funding for clinical trials and is closer to those clinical trials now than they have ever been.... does it make sense to you that the stock price should be at multi-year lows? You talk about hedge funds and "seasoned speculators" but then fail to mention a $6M investment by a few Drs.just a couple of weeks ago. Don't you think they did a little due diligence prior to plopping down a few mill each?
As to the odds of success, to paint NNVC with the same brush as all other biotechs and therefore to give it similar odds of success fails to recognize the unique mode of action of their treatment.