NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[JG36]

"Sorry, but you so mischaracterized the upside of successful flu trials that I had to correct you....regardless of any odds you wish to pin on it. Given the way the drug works, I would put the odds well north of 50%."

I think that's highly optimistic. Certainly if the market shared your views the stock wouldn't be at 0.47, it would be at 5.00 or more. And that market includes a lot of hedge funds and seasoned speculators that have decided that the prudent thing to do with this stock is stay away from it. I figure there's at least a 60% chance NNVC runs out of money before we ever really know whether Flucide or any of their other drug candidates works in humans. And I'd only give Flucide a 50% chance of actually being safe and effective if it ever does get tested in humans -- there are just so many things that can go wrong in those tests. There's a long, long list of drugs that worked beautifully in rats but either didn't work in humans or had excessively dangerous side effects. So my seat of the pants guess for the odds of success is about 20% -- and that's more optimistic that the odds estimated by the market, based on the current price. I've seen way too many promising high tech start ups fail to think that NNVC has a 50% chance of success.