Replies to post #96075 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[dig space]

mammon, that is the million dollar question,

we know Wave has acknowledged that the preponderance of its offerings will some day be subsumed by the OS, some sooner than others.

we know Wave offers other apps that ride on TCG, but for the most part there are varying degrees of competition w/re to those products

some argue that the OS (MSFT) will never take over some aspects of Wave's offerings ... this notion that the other gorillas won't allow it(I find this to be very dubious)

we know that SKS has said he plans to do all that innovation new products stuff, during and after riding the to-be-subsumed-utility gravy-train.

and then you ask, so what ARE those new producst going to be? SKS always talks about dynamic, transparent, on-the-fly (literally) automatic WiFi logon and credentials verification "I've paid". Could that be a service (in jest)? Doubt it, but you never know.

will Wave ride a single Wave and then get relagated?

Fact is, taint something one has to worry about today. If Wave starts bagging revs and that leads to crazy multiples ... then one needs to pay close attention.

(oh, and on Q3 revs, folks seem largely opptimistic : http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7842865

[Doma]

Mammon..........currently offered services

Biggest......Key Transfer Manager ES AD..............

What services Wave offers next depends on
the Mobile space adopting the Embassy Trust
System & services or just using Wave's KTM ES AD
& EAS services.

Doma.

[Foam]

Mammon -
-Biggest source of revenues for the immediate future: Bundling agreements with OEMs (Intel Executive series will be bigger than previous Intel deals, Dell is moving ahead with phase 2 of TPM deployment and, yes, I do think there will be some Wave involvement in the next line of Dell laptops, probably Gateway and Sony, and you have to wonder who Atmel will be supplying (IBM?)!?). Over the longer term revenues from server products will kick in on a much larger scale.

-I expect that the work Wave has done with Seagate will begin to produce revenues in early 2006. Dell and IBM have expressed interest in the Momentus Disk Drive for their next line of laptops.

-FIXS and government (also NACHA etc) seems to be on the point of generating some real revenues.

-Varia like SignOnline

-We have just seen use-case scenarios for the mobile sector and Wave is clearly involved in determining the specs. I believe they will play a role here in enabling some of the services envisioned for handsets. Also, interoperability in a secure way between handsets, PCs and eventually CE devices is on the roadmap for late 2006 and beyond. I think it is misguided to assume that Microsoft will subsume "trusted computing" in all these areas. I think Wave's long term goal is to provide the services that allow seamless interoperability (i.e. there can be no fully functioning interoperability without proper security) across all endpoints on the network. It seems that they are leading the way in making this vision a reality (i.e. work on specs, educating about TCG, getting in the box), but whether they will succeed in making their vision a very lucrative business reality long term remains an open question, I suppose. I like the way they are going and I like their chances. Regards, Foam