Replies to post #46366 on Kraig Biocraft Laboratories Inc (KBLB)

[Romans828]

Whiteface, excuse my 2 cents worth (since your question wasn't directed to me), but I think your range of potential price moves seem very reasonable. I believe it all depends on the MAGNITUDE of the news. I expect the initial pop to be higher, but a range of .50 to 1.00 seems reasonable, very short-term ( before the almost inevitable correction). Unless we get news of PSS and a comprehensive deal with a DuPont.....then all expectations should be considerably increased. IMO

[first mike]

a) What do you expect the PPS to spike up to the first day or two?
b) What do you thing the potential peak PPS to be in the huge rally, inmediately post announcement?

In my limited experience.....500+ million shares in a company ran by one man, I expect
a) First day or two spike to be maybe 100%, this would put us at 0.09 if announcement comes this afternoon.
b) Post rally, easlier pass 0.25, likely up to 0.4-0.5, maybe up to a $1. (Afterwhich it will drop 50% on the huge selloff from the big penny players who play it).

Quite frankly, I for one, Do Not Know!
Your guess at a) may be correct.
This is what happened in 2010 (after the 300% pre-announcement run up).
But 2010 was an odd case, the first try at the announcement was poorly worded, and, most important, KBLB was virtually unknown at that time.
Many more people with many more $ are watching KBLB now, and waiting for that announcement with baited breath and fingers on the button.

In 2010 the announcement of success did not really make any mainstream or even niche news. The only immediate spread of information was through a paid promotional newsletter, and such are generally disregarded or given low credence by jaded investors.
Now, in 2012, the year started off with the PNAS paper heard round the world. Many more investors and many more journalists know about KBLB.

It may take a day or two for momentum to build, or it may happen in an hour or two.
Given that the announcement will probably be made after market close, or even AMC on a Friday, the first few minutes after market opening may be your only chance.

Essentially, I think that your strategy will come down to a game of "Quick Draw". The fastest gunslingers will win, the slow will be left on the ground.
If I were you, and wanted to play that game, I would have a very twitchy trigger finger.
You can probably ignore the market during trading hours, unless there is a leak. KT will not PR while the market is open.

But that leak has already happened once.
On Jan. 2nd ONE online source released the PNAS news a day early, they forgot to wait for xmas before opening the present.

Other than that, you need to be very vigilant each morning to be sure that you know what is happening before the open.
Have all of your resources ready, and place your bid before opening.
I would make my bid limit at least twice what I expected, to avoid being in a losing price chase.

If you do all of that then the only thing you have to worry about is the MMs!
Remember that KBLB is not traded on a legitimate exchange.
It is traded by and between a dozen or so private Market Makers.
The normal operating procedure for these MMs when big news breaks for a stock that they can deal in is
a)first fill their own pockets at the low price, as much as they can hope to sell in the next few days.
b)fill the orders of their large favored clients.
c) fill the orders of retail investors at the highest possible price that they have been able to create by their MM to MM trading of shares that they are accumulating now or that do not exist (short buys and sells) but will be bought after the rally fades.

I think that your estimate of b) the momentum spike and the post spike decline is much more certain to happen as you predict.

How high and how fast the spike goes is almost impossible to predict.
It is in the hands of the MMs and the media.

Mike L.

[ZincFinger]

IMHO, you are looking very unique aspects of K BLB that profoundly change the possibilities.

the topic of spider silk, whether or not mentioning K BLB directly, has received a very long and very widespread exposure in the media at a low but very long term and consistent level. and just about every article has strongly emphasized the very unique qualities of spider silk and its very high potential value. This kind of background insurers that IF KBLB gets news that is widely reported in the mainstream media the impact will be vastly larger there would be usually case was such a small penny stock. (The fact that it is only a penny stock will probably, if anything, serve to exaggerate the effect since it will take much smaller amounts of money to achieve a given level of effect than it would with a regular exchange traded stock.

We have seen numerous examples of how the media appears to be strongly attracted to the impact of news like worms or goats producing spider silk. Should K BLB achieve a silk that is very close to the qualities of pure spider silk the media would undoubtedly treat it as if it was virtually the same thing and the coverage would be virtually universal, IMHO.

in reaction to news that was "merely" a deal on monster silk would be much the same although to is considerably smaller extent.

Under such circumstances, IMHO, I think an increase to 1000% of the base value in the first day is entirely possible. Many penny stocks have had similar spikes with far less coverage and far less impressive news.

What is, IMHO, indisputable is that there are enough unique situations here that there is a very large amount of uncertainty as to exactly what would occur.

Yes, it is true, you could potentially make a lot of money by trading after the news. It is also very true that you could potentially lose a great deal of money by getting caught in the Spike that would almost inevitably occur shortly after the news. Because of the highly unusual variables in the situation IMHO anyone who thinks that they can reliably predict the extent of such a Spike is bordering on delusional. (my figure was only a possibility, not a prediction.)

Note that the one big advantage of going long before the news is that you can have exactly the potential for gain as someone trading after the news with a far lower amount of money at risk. On the other side, of course, there is the reality that the risk of going long before the news is of course considerably higher than the risk of jumping in after the news unless you take into account the risk of getting in at the wrong time during the Spike. So the risk on either side is very largely dependent on your skills as a trader or lack thereof inevitably mixed in with a very large amount of pure chance.

IMHO the only approach that would give less risk trading after the news than before would be that of buying in with the intention of holding for a long-term., At least for several years. that approach would have considerably less risk than buying and before the news but at the same time it would have considerably less potential for gain

every individual has to make his own personal choice as to when to hold and when to fold and how much place on the bet if any.