Thursday, July 26, 2012 3:02:49 PM
Your guess at a) may be correct.
This is what happened in 2010 (after the 300% pre-announcement run up).
But 2010 was an odd case, the first try at the announcement was poorly worded, and, most important, KBLB was virtually unknown at that time.
Many more people with many more $ are watching KBLB now, and waiting for that announcement with baited breath and fingers on the button.
In 2010 the announcement of success did not really make any mainstream or even niche news. The only immediate spread of information was through a paid promotional newsletter, and such are generally disregarded or given low credence by jaded investors.
Now, in 2012, the year started off with the PNAS paper heard round the world. Many more investors and many more journalists know about KBLB.
It may take a day or two for momentum to build, or it may happen in an hour or two.
Given that the announcement will probably be made after market close, or even AMC on a Friday, the first few minutes after market opening may be your only chance.
Essentially, I think that your strategy will come down to a game of "Quick Draw". The fastest gunslingers will win, the slow will be left on the ground.
If I were you, and wanted to play that game, I would have a very twitchy trigger finger.
You can probably ignore the market during trading hours, unless there is a leak. KT will not PR while the market is open.
But that leak has already happened once.
On Jan. 2nd ONE online source released the PNAS news a day early, they forgot to wait for xmas before opening the present.
Other than that, you need to be very vigilant each morning to be sure that you know what is happening before the open.
Have all of your resources ready, and place your bid before opening.
I would make my bid limit at least twice what I expected, to avoid being in a losing price chase.
If you do all of that then the only thing you have to worry about is the MMs!
Remember that KBLB is not traded on a legitimate exchange.
It is traded by and between a dozen or so private Market Makers.
The normal operating procedure for these MMs when big news breaks for a stock that they can deal in is
a)first fill their own pockets at the low price, as much as they can hope to sell in the next few days.
b)fill the orders of their large favored clients.
c) fill the orders of retail investors at the highest possible price that they have been able to create by their MM to MM trading of shares that they are accumulating now or that do not exist (short buys and sells) but will be bought after the rally fades.
I think that your estimate of b) the momentum spike and the post spike decline is much more certain to happen as you predict.
How high and how fast the spike goes is almost impossible to predict.
It is in the hands of the MMs and the media.
Mike L.
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