IMHO, you are looking very unique aspects of K BLB that profoundly change the possibilities.
the topic of spider silk, whether or not mentioning K BLB directly, has received a very long and very widespread exposure in the media at a low but very long term and consistent level. and just about every article has strongly emphasized the very unique qualities of spider silk and its very high potential value. This kind of background insurers that IF KBLB gets news that is widely reported in the mainstream media the impact will be vastly larger there would be usually case was such a small penny stock. (The fact that it is only a penny stock will probably, if anything, serve to exaggerate the effect since it will take much smaller amounts of money to achieve a given level of effect than it would with a regular exchange traded stock.
We have seen numerous examples of how the media appears to be strongly attracted to the impact of news like worms or goats producing spider silk. Should K BLB achieve a silk that is very close to the qualities of pure spider silk the media would undoubtedly treat it as if it was virtually the same thing and the coverage would be virtually universal, IMHO.
in reaction to news that was "merely" a deal on monster silk would be much the same although to is considerably smaller extent.
Under such circumstances, IMHO, I think an increase to 1000% of the base value in the first day is entirely possible. Many penny stocks have had similar spikes with far less coverage and far less impressive news.
What is, IMHO, indisputable is that there are enough unique situations here that there is a very large amount of uncertainty as to exactly what would occur.
Yes, it is true, you could potentially make a lot of money by trading after the news. It is also very true that you could potentially lose a great deal of money by getting caught in the Spike that would almost inevitably occur shortly after the news. Because of the highly unusual variables in the situation IMHO anyone who thinks that they can reliably predict the extent of such a Spike is bordering on delusional. (my figure was only a possibility, not a prediction.)
Note that the one big advantage of going long before the news is that you can have exactly the potential for gain as someone trading after the news with a far lower amount of money at risk. On the other side, of course, there is the reality that the risk of going long before the news is of course considerably higher than the risk of jumping in after the news unless you take into account the risk of getting in at the wrong time during the Spike. So the risk on either side is very largely dependent on your skills as a trader or lack thereof inevitably mixed in with a very large amount of pure chance.
IMHO the only approach that would give less risk trading after the news than before would be that of buying in with the intention of holding for a long-term., At least for several years. that approach would have considerably less risk than buying and before the news but at the same time it would have considerably less potential for gain
every individual has to make his own personal choice as to when to hold and when to fold and how much place on the bet if any.
