Replies to post #19837 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[iandy]

BTW: If one were to go back and review my posts, they would see that I have added on every major pullback.

[lax20m]

I have shed over half my position over the last year and am still over weight in the stock and share your thoughts. However no matter how positive I feel about ariads potential I will continue to sell shares as the stock goes up. At some point you have to diversify or you are a hog for the slaughter.

[BuyOnDips]

In over 30 years of investing I've only had one stock that I thought was even close to a sure thing. It was an oil stock that was trading below book value when the company was put up for sale - I guess one of their oil fields could have blown up or some other highly unlikely event could have occured. Every oil guy I talked to said I was right - it was as close to a sure thing as any of them had seen.

Just wondering how that worked out. No response necessary. I think I already know.

My thoughts: I think Pona has a good chance 75% of being approved? Yes, we are dealing with the US FDA. Anything can happen.

To me the treacherous area will be between Pona and the 113 results. Just wondering how the time table will overlap with Pona.... vs 113 results.

[BTH]

I am curious.

What are your reasons for NOT lightening up? Do you think Ariad is undervalued here? (it is $3 billion market cap, and yes, Ponatinib is a layup, but may very well be baked in at current valuation). Are you afraid of missing a buyout potential? If Ariad didnt have 113, would you think its fairly valued?

For the record, I think 113 CAN add a new dimensional upswing to the stock.

Thanks, I am just curious as to sentiment as to why one would not sell stock at current valuation.