Replies to post #19841 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[JJM760]

I am curious. What are your reasons for NOT lightening up?

I will take a swing here.

Because if Ponatinib gets any decent % of the front line and 113 starts to look real good, in a few years this POS has a better than decent chance of landing somewhere in the $50 range.

At that number, with the ludicrous position I have, I could shoot for a 10% annual return and be an extremely comfortable professional little league coach for my young kids or a professional 12 handicap golfer or a professional beach bum. You get the point.

I know that's possibly the dumbest thing you have ever heard, but that is why I haven't sold my shares. I might trim 30% at $20, which I believe will be here by fall. I am open to all suggestions.

EDIT: BTW, I don't believe that the chances of Ariad's PPS being much lower than $18 in a few years are very high. So I sit and wait and monitor every possible piece of info I can to try and gain some incite into the 113 trial and the future of Ponatinib. If some large pharma would like to come along and make an offer and put in a nice floor for the PPS, I would not be too upset.

[lax20m]

I think people fail to realize that this stock just doesnt have the upside potential that it used to have. It's sky rocketed over the past 3 years. The stars would have to align perfectly for this thing to double again in the next year or so. I think it's worth having as an investment, even as a sizable investment, but there is no need to bet the farm on it anymore.

[vidpok45]

If Ariad is fully valued for ponatinib, and ponatinib is 90% guaranteed for approval, why would one possibly sell now given the 50/50 potential for a double if 113 hits with maybe a 1/10 downside risk IF both ponatinib AND 113 crap out. (Actually a lot less than one in ten which would only consider a ponatinib failure). At this point it seems fairly unlikely that ponatinib won't be approved based on the results, so where else is the money safer with a free bet for a double if 113 hits and no obvious downside if 113 fails as the current pps doesn't reflect anything really for 113? Maybe I am missing something here, please enlighten me.

[iandy]

BTH - I am intrigued by the fact they are going it alone.
They own two molecules with great potential and everything is magnified ( for better or worse) because they did not partner.

Not a great reason not to take some profit off the table.
I'll start selling over 18.