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StocWatcher

09/07/05 12:50 AM

#94083 RE: barge #94074

Reach - Symantec Buyout


I too have had that nagging feeling of a Symantec or similar buyout. I was invested in Quarterdeck (QDEK) in 1998 when most of their intellectual property was on the decline with the exception of Cleansweep. Symantec circled like a vulture and picked off the company for this last remaining "jewel" which they then added to their "Systemworks Suite." I was also invested in Intertrust (ITRU) and had my stock involuntarily sold when they were bought out by Sony.

We would be very naive to, on one hand, so strongly believe in Waves place in the new digital security frontier and at the same time think that the Symantec's of the industry are not closely observing. My personal experience would lead me to believe the aquisition "hit men" were following Waves financial decline and were hoping to swoop into the ICU at the last moment and offer a pittance for Waves IP and name recognition in the Trusted Community.

Many on this board have argued that Wave will never fall under the control (ownership) of a "gorilla." I agree in principle. It won't be a Microsoft, Intel, AMD or Sun. However, Symantec is a "Switzerland" and is a "gorilla." If TPM's are to dominate all things digital, you have to believe Symantec, or similar, has worked up some "preliminarys" for inclusion in their "Security Suites." The fit is just toooooo good!

Now the good news. Wave stock is interesting in that the institutional and insider ownership is currently very low. As I recall, there are some 32,000 individual owners of which many are so called "Wavoids." A couple of "if's:" If the "Waviod" holdings are as substantial as we would be led to believe, and if the: "I haven't been invested in this company for all these years to sell out for less than (you pick the number)..." has some teeth to it. Symantec faces a bit of a dilemma. It appears that Wave will beat the "grim reaper" and exit the ICU gaining strength from the approaching infusion of Trusted Computing into the market place. (Kind of reminds me of Visa writing off Lance Armstrong when he came down with cancer. If I'm not mistaken, Lance has done fairly well and there are probably a couple of former Visa advertising executives that are much more familiar with the "working end of a broom.") So picking off the IP for peanuts ain't gonna happen. So what's the next plan? Probably to have the "Buyout Boys" (not to be confused with the "Backstreet Boys") come up with a price and a timeline to snatch this rocket before it launches.

They may be in for a big surprise trying to get that 50.000000001% at anywhere near the normal buyout premium.

As for the current share price. What was that story about "The Boy who cried wolf" so many times that he was ignored until one day...

For the record, I got a lot and I ain't sellin' any time soon.

How bout you?

Stoc