StocWatcher - Symantec buyout and other ramblings
I agree 100%; Unfortunately if the buyout price for Wave is too high, this may force the Symantecs of the world (ie. Trend Micro, McAfee, Computer Associates, Verisign, Infineon, Broadcom, STM or others) to find a work around to bypass Wave altogether.
Possible outcomes:
1) competition develops a solution on their own
2) and 3) competition partners with or purchases another company that has the missing link to make a complete solution that can compet with wave
4) competition stalls until it is in their best interest (ie Microsoft)
5) competition use politics to coerce others to purchase non-Wave products
6) Wave becomes a gorilla
I'm weighing the following factors:
a) Risk of purchasing Wave now - will Wave succeed? I sure hope so; I haven't followed this company for 7 yrs if I didn't so; I think they have the best odds now or at least since I started following Wave)
b) How much can I afford to lose (I can't afford to lose ALL my eggs AND the basket)
c) How much do I need to invest and sell to make serious $$$$$$$$$ before/if any of items 1-5 occur)
d) If 6 happens, then I'll hold a majority of my stock and I'll see everyone in Vegas.
At present, I don't have as much stock as I'd like, but I think I have some time before Wave is noticed by the masses. But, if Wave goes anywhere near $50 or $100 I sure won't complain.
I'm accumulating small chunks every qtr, and I'll hold my shares with an "Iron Fist" until I see it is not in the best interest of the company and the profit to the shareholders (especially myself). I plan to hold this stock as long as possible. I have many more years before I plan on retiring (errr, maybe not depending on wave's success).
I still don't have extremely high revenue expectations for this qtr; not that much traction. I anticipate at the very least:
$258,000 (just like last qtr; assumption that another 1,000,000 chips will deploy)
+
0.5% activation rate of 1,000,000 deployed chips (~5,000 ETS sales) x $30 = $150,000
+
1 or 2 KTM servers sold = $5000
Total estimated revenue = $413,000
In the near term, I'm hoping for traction in government, banking, HIPAA, SOX, and the protection of credit databases (next couple qtrs).
In several more quarters, I hope revenue is > $1 mil
thereafter, a severe hockey stick upwards
At the end of 2006 is when it will really get interesting.
* 25,000,000 deployed trusted PCs (and it looks like Wave has agreements with most of the OEMs so I'm hoping for alot of activations)
* Mobile devices - deployment of these devices will quickly outpace computers starting at the end of '06 and new application can quickly be developed and deployed (development cycle is much quicker than a PC)
* x-box 360, windows media PCs, regular PCs will start to monetize content and use premium TPM services or applications
I believe secure PCs will lag in the consumer space, unless there is a holy grail of TPM applications. I haven't seen an application at this point that meets this definition. I can eventually see the x-box 360 and windows media pcs converging into a digital platform for movie rentals and game rentals. I don't have high expectations for TVTonic anytime soon, but it's very, very early in monetizing content; TPMs need to be deployed before MPAA will trust that content can not be stolen. I also don't have high hopes for xbox 360 immediately. I believe Microsoft will primarily use the Security chip to protect against illegal copying of games.
OK, enough rambling for the evening. I need to get some sleep.
Good night
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