I'm no expert either, but a few years ago an installer told me that for the average installation on the average home in the average climate (:-)) the cost recovery time was 15 years. Even then, you might not move into the "gravy" period because the panels themselves might be shot and you'd have to start all over again.
Yes at the moment, because silicon still comprises 40% of solar panel costs. However, with New Hampshire based GTAT's CVD furnaces driving down silicon production costs and its Monocast technology potentially increasing solar cells' collection efficiencies to as much as 19%, solar panels incorporating silicon from GTAT-produced furnaces could soon help users achieve grid parity without subsidies.