Replies to post #217069 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[Alladinator]

That would be unwise as they are operating at a loss.

[tkc]

I believe the deal closed on 9/22/11. So as of that date Wave owned all Safend's assets and liabilities. Therefore I would think Wave would have to report all of Safend's revenue and expenses (at least from 9/22 thru 9/30) in WAVX's Q3 consolidated statement of operations. But I don't know for sure. Also, I would think that as Safend's expenses most likely exceed any revenues it will be a negative contribution to Wave's income(loss.)

[dig space]

Safend Revs and reporting:

From the t.o. FAQ:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67346669

What about Safend’s financials?
Previously a privately held firm, Safend has not been subject to the same disclosure requirements as a publicly held firm such as Wave. We intend to file Safend’s financials with the SEC within the next 40 days.

(the t.o. was Sept 22, 40 days is Nov 17th)

The deal was inked in Q3, and Wave generally reports Q3 results in the second week of Nov. Whether they report it all at once or delay the Safend component for a week is anybody's guess.

Safend was experiencing declining/stagnating revs ...

from the 8-k:

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/110923/wavx8-k.html

Headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel, with offices in Philadelphia, Safend has approximately 70 employees. Safend had revenue of approximately $6.2 million, and a net loss of approximately $3.1 million for the full-year of 2010. For the unaudited six months ended June 30, 2011 Safend had revenue of approximately $2.9 million, and a net loss of approximately $1.9 million.

And previous years from a VC report (good job Bertha):

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67345992

Safend recorded revenues in the amount of $7.3 million in 2009, $5.6 million in 2008, and $3.7 million in 2007. There is no assurance that Safend will be able to continue to increase its revenues which may result in Safend requiring additional funding to finance its operations.

From all of that it seems one can pencil in a ballpark Q3 Safend rev number of $1-2m and a ballpark expense number of $3m (based on indicated losses).

revs:
2011 1st 6 months: $2.9m
2010: $6.2m
2009: $7.3m
2008: $5.6m
2007: $3.7m


Wave SMB/bundling revs were approx. $5.92m in Q2 having grown 2.33% from Q1. Enterprise customer revs were around $2.37m. Enterprise customer revs should go up to $2.73m in Q3 and if SMB.bundling enjoys the same rate of growth should come in at $5.9m. This gives $8.63m in WAVX revs with some $1-2m of Safend revs tacked on if the numbers are consolidated (yielding $9.6-10.6m in revs).

Wave Q2 expenses were $10.15m having grown 4.32% from Q1. If Wave's exps show the same growth they will be around $10.6m. If one adds in the Safend exps guess of $3m, one gets consolidated expenses of $13.6m

This works out to a loss of $3-4m.

Wave ended Q2 with $10m in the bank. My math has Wave ending Q3 with something between $2-5m, that's pretty messy to project given Safend and the manner in which revs are booked vs billings. It gets worse before it gets better ... the doughnut hole. My numbers figure a $10m PIPE will cover the hole, and that would fit under the current shelf (resulting in around 4m shares as things currently stand).

DS