Replies to post #126033 on Biotech Values

[pollyvonwog]

If there really was something "minor" in the letter they got, TEVA would surely let the world know as that had been their strategy for the previous 6 months up until that deficiency. TEVA going completely mum speaks volumes IMO.

[jb_118]

MNTA

If I'm right, the best case scenario for MNTA is no news, which should result in a steady (albeit unspectacular) increase in stock price over time.

Basically over the last 6,9,12 months the rise in the stock price is fractional to the increase in cash. If you take CW's publicly stated belief that there will eventually be another generic, then each passing month as the sole generic means:

1) 25M in revenue
2) a month closer to that eventual second generic (CW roughly estimated end of the year as i recall).
3) an increased belief that the problems TEVA is facing are more likely to be harder to deal with than one might have originally thought, pushing back our expected date of launch.

tEnox approval date would make for a great over/under line in vegas to watch with the passing of time. It's baked into MNTA stock price somewhere, and my guess is the current "line" would be about first of December or less.

My recollection from the middle of July is that Bret Holy of Oppenheimer raised his estimate for MNTA earnings and remodeled tEnox approval from end of Q2 to end of July (then just 2 weeks later)!

[iwfal]

Sure they would like to screw MNTA if they could, but not at the cost of their own credibility.

FWIW I think it is indisputable that TEVA blusters in their statements. I will put together a list - but example numero uno would be the claim they made after Momenta approval "Hey, our approval is coming in n months because we submitted our immunogenicity data n months after Momenta". That is completely bizzarre logic - and they would have to be either idiots (which I think highly unlikely) or blusterers to make such a statement. And if they are blusterers I think it is completely expected they would tone it down when threatened with a lawsuit.

Also note that they made explicit reference to their lawyer being on one of the telecon's immediately after the lawsuit was enjoined. Again speaking to a filter for legal reasons.

But, as I said, I think there are plenty of other examples and it might be interesting to compile the list.

[iwfal]

MNTA -

If I'm right, the best case scenario for MNTA is no news, which should result in a steady (albeit unspectacular) increase in stock price over time.

PS You have a jaded view of "spectacular" -g-. Comes from too many binaries in biotechland? In your hypothesized scenario (no tL ever) at some point the value of MNTA has to increase with the increasing cash horde and that is increasing at a >30% per year rate. 30% per annum is a return that would be considered reasonably 'spectacular' over several years.

[DewDiligence]

We know the FDA can be fickle and unpredictable and so it is quite believable for me that [Teva] ran into some last-minute FDA objection of unknown seriousness.

I would respectfully suggest that you are spectacularly (there’s that word again, LOL) wrong on this point. As far as I can tell, once the FDA published the minimum requirements for approval of generic Lovenox, Teva realized that it didn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of getting FDA approval.

Initially, Teva reacted by stepping up the propaganda machine (#msg-66755361); however, Teva found that such propaganda, while possibly annoying to MNTA, wasn’t doing anything of consequence to help Teva. Then, in Dec 2010, MNTA filed its patent-infringement lawsuit, forcing Teva to revisit the idea of waging a war of words. Following careful deliberation, Teva concluded that the Lovenox ordeal was an embarrassment to the company and the best thing Teva’s executives could possibly do to restore credibility was to say nothing.

If the [FDA’s] objection [to Teva’s ANDA] is terminal, I doubt they would announce that fact - they will just leave MNTA in limbo, albeit piling up the dollars.

Bingo.