There's a poster (I believe on yahoo) that uses that word sheeples a lot. Are you him/her? As far as the downgrade, we'll just have to wait and see. The mkt has been so crappy lately, this will probably just blend right in.
I heard a bit on NPR a couple days ago that suggested there was some infighting between the administration and S&P and the downgrade was some kind of payback. S&P is a for-profit business if I'm not mistaken making money selling their reports. Maybe somebody heard that story also and can remember more than me.
Markets will probably sell in the first 90 minutes or so and then rally. I think you are right that institutions knew this was coming and have already sold off big time ... in fact, the McClellan Report stated, "The drop on August 4 saw 96 out of 100 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index reach new 10-day closing lows. That is the highest ever total for one day in at least the last 18 years"
However once a snapback rally occurs next week then the market is going to continue downward into October IMO. The breakdown of the markets this week for Elliott Wave followers portend very bad things overall in the markets for the next several years. In fact, May 2011 highs might be the highs for this decade.