Replies to post #326188 on InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[squingeqbob]

One of the best posts since this all started. Thank you, Count.

[weeblewobble09]

After the nortel auction we sunk to $41 just one week ago. One could argue that wallstreet was very stupid a week ago.

[dmiller]

Easily the post of the month! I wish I-Hub had a post rating system. Great job Frank.

[Oyster'fleet]

Great post Count.

[dndodd]

Stop dreaming that WS is smart. If they were smart IDCC would have hit 82 last year.

Second there will always be manipulators.

Was the company trying to manipulate the stock when they made the announcement? or just doing the legally correct thing?

Third there will always be message board projections up and down.

Fourth if you think the current price is correct sell and post no more.

Fifth follow your own decision making tree don't don't look for a positive or negative consensus on a message board.

Bad things can and do happen. At this point or any point you have to look at the probabilities.

Good luck and have a great life.

[bulldzr]

Count, well thought out post, but I think you are looking for reasons to fail.

They have a great story – Nortel auction, IDCC with a large number of patents and IDCC announces that they are actively exploring alternatives. Those are all facts that would cause the price to rise. Now add that there is a huge short interest in the stock, making it ripe for a short squeeze and those manipulators might see an opportunity to run the stock up. Have a source mention Google’s interested in buying IDCC. It makes perfect sense that they would be interested.

If this is the case... they hatched the plan quickly as I believe the WSJ online story came out within a few hours after the company announced. That first story has been followed by numerous reports from other agencies too many to count. If your scenario is true, I submit it would be the biggest and most widespread illegal Wall Street conspiracy that I have ever heard of... even in the movies.

[nicmar]

Count. You've been here long enough, that you already know all of the negatives as good as anybody and likely more than most of us here ... and from support of your accounting background which would likely suggest caution in going for the whole ball of wax... which it seems you're attempting to do presently. Anyway, here is my small uneducated list coming off the top of my head... which as suggested you already know anyway.

1. Google backs out feeling IDCC wants too much for a turn key and Apple is then not interested since they have a block of LTE from nortel. The stock falls to the 30's.

2. The CAFC makes an unfavorable ruling which affects the amount google is willing to pay for IDCC. Google offers 3 billion. IDCC refuses and apple also bows out since the google offer is off the table. Stock falls to the 30's

3. Dems and repubs can't agree to an extension of the debt limit and the stock market and subsequently the economy tanks. Google falls to 200 and apple to 100 and neither one is interested in buying anybody's ipr. Idcc goes to 20.

4. Everyone overestimated the value of IDCC's patents and neither google or apple are prepared to pay over 3 billion and IDCC falls to 30.

5. Idcc has been jinxed every since I bought the stock and has a habit of spiking up only to return to previous levels and it's 100% certain this is going to happen again this time as history always repeats itself.

Actually all of the above are low risk and most likely won't happen and I just can't think of too many negatives. Bottom line to me. Seems to me if google has made an inquiry prompting idcc to make an announcement then this thing is likely to go down. IDCC management is known to be extremely conservative and would not make a statement unless this thing was close to being final, I believe.

I expect a minimum of 100 a share which I will happily accept since I have no other choice anyway so everything has to be all good. All comes back to ones risk tolerence level and some have higher and some have lower levels than others... right? So I didn't tell you anything you didn't already know, but I sincerely wish you, me and everyone just a little bit of luck on this one. .. mo.. nic

I look forward to hearing about the potential risks, as well as what might mitigate those risks.

[Data_Rox]

count..... yes....important discussion....I like your eyes wide open....

I will revert to PMs for most ....so heaven forbid Google or "our buyer" or a stock buyer can't read anything that some may consider as negative.....too funny R^)) ....hopefully same "some" won't continue to ask for MO

...public stuff we can't hide under the board carpet

... we have a conference call this week to discuss last quarter's earnings...not sure how the market will receive and play it....maybe it's not important anymore if there is already a rooster in the henhouse....but they just gave us a ~70% premium this week. If the company doesn't discuss anything regarding last week's news....will there be a pull back? If they just hit or miss earnings...will the market react?

Company said they wouldn't talk about the initiative....but the analysts seem to think the company won't sign more licenses until some type of decision is made....leading to time.......timing anything around this stock has always lead to uncertainty and even behind the scenes manipulation (IMO). How many lost out big chunks of their investment here in playing options for "sure things".....more than a few....and I wouldn't be surprised if our "friends" don't go for another bite of the apple....again JMO....it might benefit some to open their eyes

....there is the CAFC decision....is it important anymore? maybe to validating a couple of patent claims out of the thousands we have if it goes back and wins at ITC.....more time.

oh well.....those are public issues and shouldn't upset too many

later

[JimLur]

The Count,

Data has pointed out that we really don’t know what IDCC’s patents are worth and that there is no clear value that can be derived from the Nortel patent sale, and he includes some of the reasons. He also stated that it took about a year for the Nortel patents to be analyzed. Other than that, I don’t find any discussion of why we might not see a sale at $5B or more, and soon. If anyone has any thoughts on those possibilities, please share them.[/quote]

I agree with Data that the Nortel auction provided no clear value and it took about a year to analyze the patents.

What I would suggest is probably Nortel didn't provide any engineers to comment or demonstrate what the patents could or couldn't do and left that that up to patent experts.

On the other side of the coin IMO IDCC can demonstrate how their patents can be used in their labs as they have done with video compression.

In other words in shouldn't take Google or another buyer a year to review our patents.

JMO

[The Count]

Thanks to those who shared their thoughts

I’ll respond to the pertinent comments all in one post. First, I envy those who are so certain about how this is going to play out and don’t need any help. I’m sorry for boring you with questions that have obvious answers, but I hope you’ll forgive me for my ignorance. Second, I’ve deleted posts about posters who may have insulted me. That debate is off topic.

dndodd,
The company was doing the right thing making the announcement. If my post gave the impression that I thought they did something wrong, I’m happy to clear that up.
I’m not looking to find a consensus on the message board – I think there is a pretty clear consensus here. What I am looking for is for others who have different experiences, other areas of expertise or may have thought of things that I haven’t. I’m clearly not the smartest person here, so I’m grateful when others are willing to share their knowledge and ideas. I will use that information to broaden my understanding of issues and make my decision.

Roger,
I’m not a big one on stock manipulation, however when the stock almost doubles on speculation of a buyout and there are lots of rumors floating around, I do see higher potential. My scenario was just something I made up to illustrate my concern that there might be some pumpers manipulating the price. I have no idea about how that works, but I do know there are manipulators out there. When we are trading on fundamentals, I don’t worry about stock price manipulation as I believe stock price and the stock’s value converge in the long run. However if this happens to be a unique opportunity to get a temporarily high price due to manipulation, I would like to take advantage of it.

I disagree that the goal of this board is to support the share price – I see the goal being to help us make investment decisions. I find it hard to believe a message board can have a long term affect on share price, but I do think we can learn from each other and make better decisions. I think the difference between those two premises is what causes much of the bickering on the board, as people on one side think the posts by the people on the other side are counterproductive to achievement of the perceived goal of the board.

Nicmar,
Thanks for your input. Yes, 1, 2 and 4 are risks I’ve identified, 3 & 5 are not a concern for me. I was interested to see if anyone had any reasons to think that Google would not want IDCC patents or if they had any reason to think that IDCC’s patents would not be worth at least as much as what Nortel got.

Sonic,
Thanks for your thoughts. I’m used to analyzing a company based on fundamentals, so I was hoping for some insight into possibilities/probabilities of a buyout because I have never closely followed stocks in this situation. Google not buying or bidding on IDCC is the biggest risk IMO, and my lack of knowledge is what leads me ask.

Data,
Thanks as always. You are a top five poster in my book.