It’s been fun dreaming this week.
I’ve enjoy imaging achieving my financial goals and having the money to do all I want to do for the rest of my life. That burning desire in my heart may be letting my hopes trump my healthy skepticism and allowing my expectations to exceed what is realistic. I’ve read all the posts laying out the potential valuation, and even written one. Most have a good foundation and make sense. However what I’m missing is the downside argument. Data has pointed out that we really don’t know what IDCC’s patents are worth and that there is no clear value that can be derived from the Nortel patent sale, and he includes some of the reasons. He also stated that it took about a year for the Nortel patents to be analyzed. Other than that, I don’t find any discussion of why we might not see a sale at $5B or more, and soon. If anyone has any thoughts on those possibilities, please share them. Wall Street is not stupid, and if $100/share was a slam dunk, we would not be trading at 73. I’m not saying we won’t get $100 or more, nor that I don’t think it is more likely than not. I don’t need a rehash of the positive possibilities. I’ve enjoyed reading them and have not forgotten them, so I am well covered on that side. I need to carefully consider the probabilities as best I can to make my investment decision, so I’d like to hear opinions about how and why things might not go our way. If you don’t want to be attacked for being negative, please PM me.
Why am I concerned? First, as stated above, Wall Street is not stupid. Second, there are manipulators out there. Everyone always worries about conspiracies that are against them, so we always hear about the shorters. Maybe this time there are pumpers manipulating the stock. They have a great story – Nortel auction, IDCC with a large number of patents and IDCC announces that they are actively exploring alternatives. Those are all facts that would cause the price to rise. Now add that there is a huge short interest in the stock, making it ripe for a short squeeze and those manipulators might see an opportunity to run the stock up. Have a source mention Google’s interested in buying IDCC. It makes perfect sense that they would be interested. Now the momo players jump on. When the stock starts to take a breather, a rumor about Apple pops up, triggering another run. There are visions of a bidding war, almost certainly causing a short squeeze. Now the pumpers can sell at a tidy profit and maybe even go short.
Third, this is IDCC. How much were the projections of the Ericsson lawsuit on these boards and what did we get? What did we expect from a Samsung contract? And how long do things take? How long to get the Ericsson decision? How long for the “fast” ITC process? We presented our case to the CAFC in January, and included in our presentation how Nokia’s strategy is delay, which would hopefully cause the judges to render a timely decision to mitigate that injustice, yet six months have passed with nothing. My experience with IDCC news has been similar to hiring a contractor. Things take way longer than you ever thought was reasonable and the dollars are disappointing and sometimes shocking. So those are some reasons why I want to look for risks and possibilities I may be missing. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me eight times, shame on me.
I think this is an important discussion, as many here now have a significant amount of wealth in IDCC. The purpose of this board is not to support IDCC, but to help each other make good investment decisions about our IDCC stock. I look forward to hearing about the potential risks, as well as what might mitigate those risks. Every day I need to decide what is in the best interest for my family and what is the wisest investment choice for me as facts come to light. IDCC is extremely volatile right now so it is a critical time. I appreciate all the good information and helpful posts I’ve read here over the years. My thanks to the many wise and thoughtful contributors who have helped me with my understanding of this investment.
AI
