these $24 numbers that keep being thrown around are nonsense.
At the current price of 8 cents, that's a 300:1 payout. A $3300 investment would net $1M. That's just completely ridiculous by itself. If this number were anywhere close to reality, we'd see so much institutional buying right now we'd very likely be in the $.50-$1 range as of yesterday to keep the ratio closer to reality and maybe a 50:1 payout (since we're still just trading on an information leak, albeit from multiple sources.)
So let's check the math... with a float of 1.70 billion shares, $24 per share requires a cash settlement of $40.8 Billion to commons to happen. Let me say that again, that's not NOLs valued at $40.8 Billion, but if you are expecting to wake up one morning to find your shares converted to cash as part of the settlement, someone will have to pay CASH of $40.8 Billion dollars TO COMMONS for $24 per share to materialize.
It's not going to happen.
2-3 years from now, common shares very well may be worth $24 per share on the open market after emergence, reorganization, several quarters of application of the NOLs as writedowns, and litigation against JPM and FDIC, but it simply will not happen in a settlement environment overnight.
...but I'm still adding to my position if we're below 10 cents next week. :)
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