Replies to post #14684 on Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[elena_murooni]

Cyclical Bull trends end with the reappearance of the cyclical Bear trend. Every educated (and worthwhile) speaker or writer freely offered the investing public a reminder of what markets 'do'... where those markets have been (bull territory or bear territory), and how those bull/bear trends appear & reappear throughout all history of markets.

From 2000 to 2003, every analysis had the Bear Trend mentioned and acknowledged. Additionally, they further advised that a strong cyclical bull will appear and then succumb to the cyclical bear trend. They stated that the cyclical bull trend historically lasts about 12-18 months.

For several quarters, the "accomodating Fed" has been given the credit for stopping the "drowning".. but, alas, may actually be the cause of a looming severe drowning in debt.

Sooooooooooo... were we in a Bull Trend (1984-whenever??) that had a loner cyclical Bear (2000-2003) & it has now resumed bull (2003-whenever???)? Orrrrrr... did the Bear Trend (2000 to whenever???) allow for a cyclical bull (2003-2005) within it... only to resume the Bear Trend?

I think the answer is playing out virtually before our eyes day-in and day-out. If the cyclical bull trend lasts about 12-18 months, then we are past that point. I'm trying very, very hard to assess the right answer & not cloud the vision with rose-colored glasses. The historical case for a bull within a bear trend is just that-> a historical fact. It is what it is. And, it repeats without fail. So, here we are at that juncture of finding out what's happening. It's okay that we have different views among our citizens (every juncture like the one we're in had those same opinion differences), but this time, it is WE who are affected! And, frankly, that matters!

Remember those nerves of steel? It took a while, no? HAHAHA! But I got 'em now! I can almost graph your optimism/pessimism from (what, 1998?) within your industry & can almost foretell what's coming economically. I remember your backlog (read: boom thereafter) and your slow-downs (read: recession thereafter). Your industry (so far) has been a great gauge, Court. Really.

Gotta go... probably have written wayyyyyyyyy too much! But then again, to catch up with all of you, I had to READ wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much! Just getting EVEN!