Replies to post #113911 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Even two antivirals with ribavirin, while that's a little bit better, it will still not suffice. So we think actually three antivirals with ribavirin has a very good chance of…being enough to cure HCV infection.

These comments have direct implication for the BMY/VRUS clinical trial collaboration. If we are to take these comments at face value, then the combo trial of the BMY NS5A inhibitor plus VRUS' nuke, tested both with and without ribavirin, may not cure HCV infection in test patients. Will shares of VRUS sell off if this is how it plays out or will the market understand that it is likely going to take another HCV DAA to be added to the equation and thus the trial should be deemed a success if it's shown that the two drugs can at least be safely combined and show meaningful efficacy?

[jellybean]

Dew, at what point will you drag yourself out of the all-oral HCV ditch and realize that the position is becoming more difficult to defend. Three drugs may work, but at what cost and at what risk of mounting side effects? In order to get a permanent remission or cure from HCV, the immune system needs to be engaged and that is what the interferon appears to do. The problem with the oral drugs is the vast number of viral particles that have to be inhibited to achieve remission, and the drugs that are designed to attack the viral proteins will also find targets on normal human proteins. It's a difficult design problem and while someone somewhere might come up with the right combo, eventually, it will be an expensive development program. Do yourself a favor and start thinking like a biologist and not an engineer.