Gamco, I'm not sure what will happen on the acquisition front or even on the licensing front.....but I do know that the next few weeks should be fun to watch for IDCC longs.
No matter what happens on the licensing front or the acquisition front, those that are short can not change these facts....
1. IDCC already has 50% of the 3G market licensed (Apple, RIM, Samsung, HTC, Casio, Hitachi, Kyocera, Sharp, Toshiba, LG, Pantech, etc. etc.). When Nokia signs, IDCC will be pushing 80% of the 3G market licensed and revenues will jump dramatically. Litigation expenses will drop (at least until IDCC is forced to start other court cases). The 3G market is growing 20% per year, and many of IDCC's smartphone licensees are seeing much growth of >50% YoY.
2. Even though Nokia won at the ITC, their case at the CAFC is very weak based on my study of the patents, the ruling from the ITC, and the recent patents granted by the USPTO (JMHO).
3. The world has already acknowledged that IDCC has essential IP that covers the LTE/4G standard....their IP was built into the standards. Now the question is "how much is a reasonable FRAND rate?" I can't fathom IDCC getting less than 1.5% on LTE (and it may be as much as 1.75% - 2%).
4. IDCC already has 50% of the M2M market under license.
5. IDCC has ~$13/share cash in the bank and is already earning ~3.50/share (by these metrics alone they should already be a $60 stock).
6. IDCC has developed several new technologies (such as Fuzzy Cell) that are designed to help solve the bandwidth crisis.
NJ
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