Replies to post #2167 on General Stock Ideas

[ombowstring]

bigworld, I'm surprised to hear you say that you considered giving up on your short positions. After holding them so long? My read is that this recent drifting upward is losing steam. There's no reason I can see that the market will go significantly higher. If it does, that's just farther it can fall.

I bought some VXX this week to go with my TZA. I'm betting that the markets go down sometime between now and the end of October, which has many times been a brutal month. I fully expect to make some nice profits with these shorts in the near future.

"perhaps I am my own best contrarian indicator" -- Be very careful what you do if you are so unsure of yourself. I'd hang with your shorts.

[food4thought]

Bigworld,
Based on a recent poll by CNBC a few weeks ago, it appeared the nation had gone majority bearish which lead me to believe the market was in for a rally. CNBC ran the poll when the SP had tested the 1060 range a few short weeks ago and 56% of the poll takers/viewers, likely from main street America, said they believed a double dip recession was likely. In my mind, when Joe Blow begins to feel this way and that a market crash is on the horizon, it's time to go long. You should have sensed that. There was market negativity all over CNBC. And what do you know, shortly thereafter, the market trends upward and the S&P surpasses it's 100 and 200 day moving averages. I was lucky enough to cash out of some of my TZA near 40 but still hold 2000 shares. I think the inevitable is near but the market seems to have gained strength. I will hold my remaining TZA and shorts but fear the next 4-6 weeks may be painful for the bears. There needs to be some sort of catastrophic event to create a massive selloff. Right now, even though the volume has been weak, there appears to be money entering the markets. I agree the basis for this rally seems misguided and weak but yet here it is. So hang on to your berries, the smoke and mirror effect can't last forever.