Replies to post #215163 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[Krombacher]

The bottom line is, no matter what probability you want to assign in overcoming each hurdle...the problem is that there are too many hurdles.

To demonstrate the complexity of assessing the risks, let's just take the time for decomposing just the very first hurdle/risk. As you can see, the first risk alone is enough to get ERHC investors to shy away from the company. Here's the first hurdle broken down: (I will leave it to you to break down the other hurdles)

1) What's the reason for the extension for SNP?

a) Phase II, even though it is a paltry 4 holes is still too expensive for SNP. (I don't think so).

b) Phase II, even though the costs are not as high as a development of an AKPO are just not justified by what was found in the JDZ thus far. (Most likely).

c) By postponing Phase II, you get a better deal on the EEZ auctions. (we will know this around Sept., whether SNP was indeed trying to cheapen the auction prices of the EEZ).

d) Phase II postponed because Total is interested. (I no longer buy this argument because I think Total needs to get the deal done with Chevron first before it even considers the other blocks, and 6 months is not going to cut it).

[ssc]

My, my Krom, you have certainly come a long way since the days when, using your convoluted martian logic, you declared that erhc had proven commercial oil. It has been one wild ride, up to the penthouse and back down to the basement. While the rise to 90 cents was short-lived, ERHC has proven there is actually something that will last forever. That is the wait for $14; it will surely outlast us all.

[umbra]

The other day I mentioned just how funny some of your posts can be. This is not one them. This is one of your misleading posts. At best it is dangerously capricious (for anyone who might opt to take your post seriously). I wish I could say that it was equally as inadvertent. It was not.

Your selection of "90%" is...well...just plain foolish as everything that follows and is generated from it - too is foolish. Your a very generous chap with your percentages...why?

Moving right along and in an effort to educate this old bat...kindly tell me what "90% x 90% x 90% x 70% = 51%" means and how you arrived at this formula. Now remember...don't be too gracious...lol May I correctly assume that your post was nothing more than a spoof or dry humor?

[razoroil]

Each of these milestones should cause the share price to go up. So the real question is how much will share price increase for each of the milestones you outline?


tia,

razor

[Southern Man]

Given the conflicting, political, half truths, incomplete, shallow drill reports : How can you be sure we dont already have blow out results?

: That's why the share price is down...it's not the sure thing as it was when we thought we would get blow out drill results.

[Strategyone]

Krombacher, most of the time you present very good logical information which I agree with. On your "probability" post, I would like to present a different perspective.

The reason the share price is wafting in the wind is related to the risk of this investment. But I would venture it is greater influenced by the presumption of increased “time” and “lack of facts” that is the biggest burden on the current share price.

My way of looking at the overall picture is this:

If the oil or gas is there in commercial quantities, it will be produced. It is just a matter of money and time.

I am not concerned at all about “TOTAL”. If they enter, I think it is great news for ERHE and it will likely speed up the time to production. Even if TOTAL only stays in block 1 (which I think is doubtful), Sinopec and Addax will get the full benefit of learning what it takes to produce oil and gas in this type of system. From there, they can purchase the technology. The other good news is that Sinopec has the money.

I currently put a much higher probability of hitting commercial oil/gas than the 51% you came up with. But that is what we are all needing to decide with this investment and whether to wait it out through September or not.

Briefly, I want to make a comment about another over exaggerated “risk” I see being blown out of proportion. “ERHE running out of money” is a concern but not as big of a risk as people are suggesting. Yes, they have been burning through cash at a substantial rate with the investigations and with the AIM planning etc. Well, the investigations are over and the AIM plan only makes sense if there is a new story to tell in order to “sell” new shares. Also keep in mind, before the PSC signings, ERHE had no cash for years and years. They borrowed from Chrome and/or SEO. ERHE currently has plenty of cash to get them to a point in time when we will know whether or not there is commercial quantities of oil/gas in their blocks (maybe as early as September or sooner). Once they hit this point in time, they will have multiple options for cash and likely at lower costs due to the reduced risk for a return on that loan.

Just my thoughts.

[sneak-attack]

Krom: One can not get Blow out drilling results by just drilling into the top of the target and Sniffing the Gas! Finding gas was the only surething Phase 1 would produce IMO. Now drilling Kina then Oki back to back said it all IMO. They found a very strong oil presence and thus quickly drilled Oki to see if that presence was at Oki as well or Heaven forebid, it was a gas play as well. It is my quess, Kina and Oki are like Akpo, JMO.


Just thinking out Loud.
Have a Great Day.
Sneak