Krombacher, most of the time you present very good logical information which I agree with. On your "probability" post, I would like to present a different perspective.
The reason the share price is wafting in the wind is related to the risk of this investment. But I would venture it is greater influenced by the presumption of increased “time” and “lack of facts” that is the biggest burden on the current share price.
My way of looking at the overall picture is this:
If the oil or gas is there in commercial quantities, it will be produced. It is just a matter of money and time.
I am not concerned at all about “TOTAL”. If they enter, I think it is great news for ERHE and it will likely speed up the time to production. Even if TOTAL only stays in block 1 (which I think is doubtful), Sinopec and Addax will get the full benefit of learning what it takes to produce oil and gas in this type of system. From there, they can purchase the technology. The other good news is that Sinopec has the money.
I currently put a much higher probability of hitting commercial oil/gas than the 51% you came up with. But that is what we are all needing to decide with this investment and whether to wait it out through September or not.
Briefly, I want to make a comment about another over exaggerated “risk” I see being blown out of proportion. “ERHE running out of money” is a concern but not as big of a risk as people are suggesting. Yes, they have been burning through cash at a substantial rate with the investigations and with the AIM planning etc. Well, the investigations are over and the AIM plan only makes sense if there is a new story to tell in order to “sell” new shares. Also keep in mind, before the PSC signings, ERHE had no cash for years and years. They borrowed from Chrome and/or SEO. ERHE currently has plenty of cash to get them to a point in time when we will know whether or not there is commercial quantities of oil/gas in their blocks (maybe as early as September or sooner). Once they hit this point in time, they will have multiple options for cash and likely at lower costs due to the reduced risk for a return on that loan.
Just my thoughts.
