Replies to post #215172 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[Krombacher]

umbra,

I treated the occurance of each of the events as "independent" events, and while it is certainly possible to treat the events as each depending on each other, the math becomes more cumbersome and the outcome is worse.

So if we take each event to be independent, then the overall probability of each independent event occurring is simply the product of the probabilities of each event. Hence the formula P1 * P2 * P3 = Overall probability.

The point of my post is that EVEN WHEN you are generous, i.e. provide 90% probabilities to the event, the sheer NUMBER of hurdles/obstacles, "dilutes" the certainty of your outcome, and hence the probability that ALL will occur is 51% AT BEST.

Understand?

Krombacher