Replies to post #5970 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Excellent. Both of the factors you present are consequential to a much greater extent than the typical biotech investor understands.

What you’re calling “Survivorship Bias” I like to call program-survival bias so as to make it clear that it has nothing at all to do with patient survival (#msg-4702062).

Suggestion: anyone who does fully comprehend zebra’s post should print it out and contemplate it over and over until they do. These are among the most important concepts in biotech investing!

[rkcrules2001]

PARS... Fly with the eagles,

and sometimes get sucked into a jet engine.

As Dew noted your points are excellent.

If I may add one more observation -- I'll be vastly more hesitant in the future about rationalizing massive insider selling, and a BOD with virtually no ownership stake. In the luxury of hindsight, these were red flags the size of Wyoming.

On the positive side, I am very glad I sold, sold, sold on the way up. At this point, on a net-net basis I'm still up about 25% during 2 years. But those Ph.III results were just killers. I just need to get my wife to agree that you can't "lose" money you never had. :)


rkc

[DewDiligence]

Zebra Biologics inks antibody-discovery collaboration with ABBV:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/zebra-biologics-inc-collaborate-abbvie-172600134.html

Zebra Biologics is private; it has nothing whatsoever to do with Zebra’s Law :- )