Replies to post #52190 on Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[elena_murooni]

I must agree with you! I opened VXX @ 46.46 today.

If we are both right, then we should be in a goooooood position.

Hope you know my absence is 'workload' based... especially from coming back from such a severe illness...

This is to say that I'm getting better every day but am still chiseling on a mountain of work. I'll get there!!

Nick, not sure if you see things this way, but we seem to be set for a 3rd wave down (Wave 1 down lasted 17 months & ended Mar 9..... Wave 2 up has lasted 7.5 months & should end shortly... Wave 3 down will be the next move. Not sure if the timing is right, but feel that (like you said) we could be looking at an important top when this rally feigns (sp).

[n4807g]

Sold MNTA 9.67

[santafe2]

Hi Nick. As I've said over the last few months, I'm still holding out for a clear sign. I have begun selling metals to hedge a down market but I'm not yet holding short market positions. I don't see the catalyst. I would like to see oil break out above its October high and the US$ break down below its October low. I'd also like to see some real fear. Everyone seems pretty content with the taxpayer paid recovery for now. The other shoe will drop but there aren't enough clues yet. I think the down market is farther out, this is why I'm selling so slowly. It would not surprise me if the market broke out to the upside and gathered more optimism before it moved downward.

I'm not predicting, just trying to pull from past experience and understand this period. As you noted, it's a good time to be cautious.