Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[santafe2]

Hi Nick. As I've said over the last few months, I'm still holding out for a clear sign. I have begun selling metals to hedge a down market but I'm not yet holding short market positions. I don't see the catalyst. I would like to see oil break out above its October high and the US$ break down below its October low. I'd also like to see some real fear. Everyone seems pretty content with the taxpayer paid recovery for now. The other shoe will drop but there aren't enough clues yet. I think the down market is farther out, this is why I'm selling so slowly. It would not surprise me if the market broke out to the upside and gathered more optimism before it moved downward.

I'm not predicting, just trying to pull from past experience and understand this period. As you noted, it's a good time to be cautious.