Replies to post #4443 on Alloy Steel Inc. (fka AYSI)

[SAMNOTSAMUEL]

From a standpoint of caution it wasn't just negative posts.

The industry was in a slump. The 2nd mill did not get completed in a timely manner. There was no evidence of desire for the product in the form of orders.

Without confirmation of superiority it is often dangerous investing to buy too heavily into an idea. For those who have a high degree of competence in research, they always have the edge.

An example of blue sky for now is Cleverox once mentioned possibility of 25 cents for 2 mills in a qtr. Assuming 15 cents for 2 mills and an even double with 2 more mills $1.20 earnings annual is not the highest one could estimate but is staggering from here.

sam

[RMIWA]

I agree that conservatively AYSI should be able to generate $7-8M/qtr which I would hope would result in net income north of .10/shr. If the two new mills are constructed using existing cash flow like the last one was, I would hope AYSI can stay steady around .10/shr until the next mill is functioning. It would be nice to know the costs of the second mill. Property and equipment costs this year were ~100K/qtr and the last two years were between 500-650K/yr. The costs of the second mill were not particularly evident in the numbers as I saw them.
I hope the next two mills are funded through either short term debt or existing cash flow and that dilution is not necessary. The lack of dilution by AYSI has been a significant factor in my confidence of management and the company.

[DaveinHackensack]

Even if you knew nothing about Arcoplate,

The Altman Z-Score -- a model that has been demonstrated to be about 72% accurate in predicting bankruptcy within two years and about 80-90% accurate in predicting it within one year -- clearly signaled that Alloy Steel was in no danger of bankruptcy in the near future. That's why I posted the Altman Z-Score data for Alloy Steel here earlier in the year, despite getting crap for it.