Replies to post #178414 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[RootOfTrust]

Exactly Ispro. If Wave's 150 enterprise accounts add up to a 100k laptop SED/ERAS opportunity over a 3.5 yr. replacement cycle, that's about 7000k licenses/q which is probably quite close to what the opportunity currently is. Very modest for sure, but you fight for a start and keep going. The good news is that the number and opportunity is growing by the week. Soon it will be 200k, 500k, 1m etc. It also generates annual maintenance revenue each year. Those who claim Wave can't "close deals" don't understand the opportunity.

[RootOfTrust]

P.S. Ispro re: the numbers:

I mentioned the figure of 150 enterprise customer accounts. I will say that by the time of the SHM in June, I expect the number to be slightly higher. That includes both evaluation and post-evaluation (I don't know the ratio). Post-evaluation accounts normally indicate they are procuring SED/ERAS on all new laptops going forward. For all intents and purposes, today's ERAS opportunity is for new laptops (mainly Dell). Other ERAS opportunities are: TPM management on already deployed laptops and desktops, retro-fitting SED on already deployed laptops, and TPM/SED management on new desktops. Btw, I heard that Seagate Momentus SED is now available in 320G which may encourage more Optiplexes to be ordered w/ SED. Actually, if the customer moves fully into TPM implementation they need a bit more than ERAS (see EKMS/EAS).

The total (over a 3.5 yr. replacement cycle) opportunity existing today (which I estimated at 100k laptops in my preceding post), is obtained by adding the total number of laptops currently deployed by all (post-evaluation) accounts who are presumed to be standardizing on SED/ERAS. Again, per above, this is a new laptop-only opportunity, not opportunities to already deployed laptops/desktops or new desktops. As I indicated in the preceding post, 100k over 3.5 yr. is about 7000/q procurement on the average. The number is dynamic and growing every week as accounts convert to post-evaluation. As the total 3.5 yr. procurement (replacement cycle) opportunity grows (200k, 500k, 1m etc.), the quarterly procurement numbers will increase proportunately.

ISV's use software to profile accounts (number of laptops/desktops etc.) and track account activity (procurement schedules etc.). Wave is doing this today...accounts are monitored daily.

Certain accounts represent very large opportunities, where but one or two of them, when they move past evaluation, would double the 100k laptop estimate above. Other accounts are medium to large and will add to the numbers significantly as they move past evaluation.

Some very large accounts are running both TPM and SED in the lab. Some areas of military and government are making it clear TPM is part of their future infrastructure, so expect large organizations who do miltary/government business to be evaluating and preparing for TPM.

The economy impacted Wave's results both q4 and q1. Some accounts have delayed initial post-evaluation procurements for example. Others have pushed procurements forward or reduced order sizes.

Wave's enterprise business HAS been launched and IS growing.