Replies to post #77878 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

HIV Market Data from GILD 2Q09 CC

The HIV market continues to grow slowly but steadily in the US
and EU thanks to increased testing, which has been facilitated
by recent legislation (#msg-31419107), and new treatment
guidelines that recommend an earlier start (#msg-33124429).

GILD’s Atripla/Truvada franchise continues to take market share
from GSK’s ‡Epzicom/Kivexa, which is a now a very distant second
among nucleoside backbones.

Here are data** on penetration and market
share as provided by GILD on its 2Q09 CC:


US patients: All lines
188K on Atripla (33% share)
203K on Truvada (34% share)
†20K on Viread (4% share)
====
411K on tenofovir in some form (72% share)
158K on non-tenofovir regimens (28% share)
====
569K total patients, +7% year-over-year, +1% quarter-over-quarter


US patients: First-line only
Atripla or Truvada: 86% share (Atripla per se 54% share)
‡Epzicom: 4% share (down from 12% in early 2008)


*EU patients: All lines
277K total patients, +7% year-over-year, +1% quarter-over-quarter


*EU patients: First-line only
Atripla or Truvada: 75% share in 2Q09 (up from 73% in 1Q09)
‡Kivexa: 10% share in 2Q09 (down from 16% in 2Q08)


*Top-5 EU countries: Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain.
**As of the end of 1Q09 unless otherwise specified.
†Estimate by Dew.
‡Epzicom (US) and Kivexa (EU) are the same product: a combination of GSK’s Epivir and Ziagen.